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"Farrell, Greg"
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A Modern Day Arsenal of Democracy: How Resiliency and Disruptive Innovation can Reopen the Defense Industry to Free Market Economics
In Mar 2023, the first US defense contractor, stationed in Syria, was killed by an Iranian suicide drone. Air superiority doctrine is being upended before the very eyes of the US defense sector and the outcomes in combat could be devastating. How is the US losing its competitive edge in one-way attack drone technology? The post-Cold War US defense sector does not generate industry-induced innovation due to a lack of a free market economic structure. The Department of Defense (DoD) successfully integrates Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) contracts to maintain some innovation in the sector. However, the industry continues to suffer from a lack of competition in two areas. The consolidated industry, the five major prime defense contractors, lack competition because they are considered \"too important to fail.\" Second, small disrupter companies cannot generate a domestic consumer base for innovating low-cost platforms -- platforms like the one-way attack drone.
Journal Article
Mech Cadet Yu
Once a year, giant robots from outer space come to Earth and bond with young cadets from the elite Sky Corps Academy to defend the world from the terrifying aliens known as the Sharg. It's a great honor to be chosen, but this year...well, the wrong kid was picked.
Book
Countercyclical capital buffers and real-time credit-to-GDP gap estimates: A South African perspective
Countercyclical capital buffers are intended to protect the banking sector and the broader economy from episodes of excessive credit growth, which have been associated with financial sector procyclicality and the build-up of systemic risk. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has suggested in its guidance to national authorities that the credit-to-GDP gap be used as a guide to taking decisions regarding the countercyclical capital buffer. This paper provides a South African perspective on the implementation of this guidance. Credit-to-GDP gaps are estimated by applying a range of Hodrick-Prescott filters to real-time South African data, specifically constructed for this study, and these gaps are mapped to countercyclical buffers. The properties of these estimates are compared, and the calibration of the lower and upper thresholds of the buffer in the South African case is also investigated. The study confirms that the mechanical application of the credit-to-GDP guide is not advisable, and raises a number of issues that policymakers will have to consider when implementing the countercyclical buffer guidance. The analysis also suggests that the calibration of the lower and upper thresholds for the gaps may need to be adjusted in the South African case if the Basel Committee's expectation that the buffers be employed only every 10-20 years is to be met.
Paper
