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"Feigin, Valery L"
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Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
by
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
,
Roth, Gregory A
,
Parmar, Priya
in
Air pollution
,
Alcohol
,
Cholesterol
2016
The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013.
We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol.
Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5–92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7–76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2–73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4–34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2–29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries.
Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
Journal Article
Incidence of traumatic brain injury in New Zealand: a population-based study
2013
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of long-term disability in children and young adults worldwide. However, accurate information about its incidence does not exist. We aimed to estimate the burden of TBI in rural and urban populations in New Zealand across all ages and TBI severities.
We did a population-based incidence study in an urban (Hamilton) and rural (Waikato District) population in New Zealand. We registered all cases of TBI (admitted to hospital or not, fatal or non-fatal) that occurred in the population between March 1, 2010, and Feb 28, 2011, using multiple overlapping sources of information. We calculated incidence per 100 000 person-years with 95% CIs using a Poisson distribution. We calculated rate ratios [RRs] to compare the age-standardised rates between sex, ethnicity, and residency (urban, rural) groups. We used direct standardisation to age-standardise the rates to the world population.
The total incidence of TBI per 100 000 person-years was 790 cases (95% CI 749–832); incidence per 100 000 person-years of mild TBI was 749 cases (709–790) and of moderate to severe TBI was 41 cases (31–51). Children (aged 0–14 years) and adolescents and young adults (aged 15–34 years) constituted almost 70% of all TBI cases. TBI affected boys and men more than women and girls (RR 1·77, 95% CI 1·58–1·97). Most TBI cases were due to falls (38% [516 of 1369]), mechanical forces (21% [288 of 1369]), transport accidents (20% [277 of 1369]), and assaults (17% [228 of 1369]). Compared with people of European origin, Maori people had a greater risk of mild TBI (RR 1·23, 95% CI 1·08–1·39). Incidence of moderate to severe TBI in the rural population (73 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 50–107) was almost 2·5 times greater than in the urban population (31 per 100 000 person-years [23–42]).
Our findings suggest that the incidence of TBI, especially mild TBI, in New Zealand is far greater than would be estimated from the findings of previous studies done in other high-income countries. Our age-specific and residency-specific data for TBI incidence overall and by mechanism of injury should be considered when planning prevention and TBI care services.
Health Research Council of New Zealand.
Journal Article
Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review
by
Lawes, Carlene MM
,
Bennett, Derrick A
,
Feigin, Valery L
in
Age Factors
,
Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data
,
Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data
2009
This systematic review of population-based studies of the incidence and early (21 days to 1 month) case fatality of stroke is based on studies published from 1970 to 2008. Stroke incidence (incident strokes only) and case fatality from 21 days to 1 month post-stroke were analysed by four decades of study, two country income groups (high-income countries and low to middle income countries, in accordance with the World Bank's country classification) and, when possible, by stroke pathological type: ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage. This Review shows a divergent, statistically significant trend in stroke incidence rates over the past four decades, with a 42% decrease in stroke incidence in high-income countries and a greater than 100% increase in stroke incidence in low to middle income countries. In 2000–08, the overall stroke incidence rates in low to middle income countries have, for the first time, exceeded the level of stroke incidence seen in high-income countries, by 20%. The time to decide whether or not stroke is an issue that should be on the governmental agenda in low to middle income countries has now passed. Now is the time for action.
Journal Article
Global prevention of stroke and dementia: the WSO Declaration
by
Brainin, Michael
,
Norrving, Bo
,
Hachinski, Vladimir
in
Air pollution
,
Alcohol
,
Alzheimer's disease
2020
[...]a motivational population-wide strategy using the free Stroke Riskometer app to reduce lifestyle and other risk factors in adults at any increased risk of stroke development. [...]a polypill strategy (consisting of two generic low-dose blood pressure drugs [eg, losartan 16 mg and amlodipine 2·5 mg] and one generic lipid lowering medication [eg, rosuvastatin calcium 10 mg]) for middle-age and older adults at risk of cardiovascular disease (ie, those with at least two behavioural or metabolic cardiovascular disease risk factors). [...]it excludes people with low-to-moderate cardiovascular disease risk who will ultimately comprise about 80% of future strokes and cardiovascular events, and thereby might have been falsely reassured that they are protected from developing these diseases. [...]evidence is lacking for the effectiveness of the high-risk approach in preventing stroke and acute cardiovascular events at the population level (appendix p1).
Journal Article
Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality
by
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
,
Mensah, George A
,
Roth, Gregory A
in
Age Factors
,
Aging
,
Cardiovascular disease
2015
According to the Global Burden of Disease Study, between 1990 and 2013, global cardiovascular mortality increased by 55% as a result of aging and by 25% as a result of population growth. A 39% decrease in age-specific death rates resulted in a 41% increase in cardiovascular mortality.
Globally, deaths from cardiovascular and circulatory diseases are increasing.
1
This increase represents the combined effect of population growth, the aging of populations, and epidemiologic changes in cardiovascular disease. It is important to disentangle these drivers of the observed trends in global mortality for a number of reasons. First, regional and national investments in cardiovascular health can target only the epidemiologic causes of cardiovascular disease. Second, understanding the roles and relative magnitude of these demographic and epidemiologic trends is important in planning for the health care system and in developing policy. Third, the effects of the aging and growth of the . . .
Journal Article
Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
by
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
,
Wang, Wenzhi
,
Bennett, Derrick A
in
Adults
,
Age Factors
,
Biological and medical sciences
2014
Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010.
We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and WHO regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR), based on disease-specific, pre-specified associations between incidence, prevalence, and mortality, to calculate regional and country-specific estimates of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by age group (<75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income, and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010.
We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). From 1990 to 2010, the age-standardised incidence of stroke significantly decreased by 12% (95% CI 6–17) in high-income countries, and increased by 12% (–3 to 22) in low-income and middle-income countries, albeit non-significantly. Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31–41) and low-income and middle-income countries (20%, 15–30). In 2010, the absolute numbers of people with first stroke (16·9 million), stroke survivors (33 million), stroke-related deaths (5·9 million), and DALYs lost (102 million) were high and had significantly increased since 1990 (68%, 84%, 26%, and 12% increase, respectively), with most of the burden (68·6% incident strokes, 52·2% prevalent strokes, 70·9% stroke deaths, and 77·7% DALYs lost) in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2010, 5·2 million (31%) strokes were in children (aged <20 years old) and young and middle-aged adults (20–64 years), to which children and young and middle-aged adults from low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%) and 4·0 million (78%), respectively, of the burden. Additionally, we noted significant geographical differences of between three and ten times in stroke burden between GBD regions and countries. More than 62% of new strokes, 69·8% of prevalent strokes, 45·5% of deaths from stroke, and 71·7% of DALYs lost because of stroke were in people younger than 75 years.
Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing. Further study is needed to improve understanding of stroke determinants and burden worldwide, and to establish causes of disparities and changes in trends in stroke burden between countries of different income levels.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
The burden of stroke in China: Results from a nationwide population-based epidemiological survey
2018
Stroke is a serious threat to human health that often leads to severe complications, and currently ranks first as leading cause of death in China. However, reliable data on stroke burden in China in the 21st century are lacking. We used the data from NESS-China (National Epidemiological Survey of Stroke in China) for assessing the adverse health effects of stroke in Chinese population. We carried out inter-regional comparative study in order to obtain regular burden related characteristics of stroke in China, as measured by YLLs (years of life lost due to premature mortality), YLDs (years lived with disability) and DALYs (disability adjusted life years). Amongst the nationwide population of 596,536 individuals of all ages in 2013, the YLLs for stroke was 1748, the YLDs was 262, and the DALYs was 2010(per 100,000). The gender subtype analysis of DALYs was 2171(male) and 1848(female). The YLLs, YLDs and DALYs in rural areas were higher compared to urban areas. Among the 18 age groups, the highest YLLs was observed in ≥ 80 years old group. The impact of stroke on Chinese population is more severe compared to the global average levels. Stroke results as the main cause of YLLs in China, while there is no significant difference for the YLDs. Nevertheless, DALYs caused by stroke rank 3th in global epidemiologic study territories, 1st in China.
Journal Article
30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies
by
Bennett, Derrick A.
,
Tobias, Martin
,
Krishnamurthi, Rita V.
in
Age Distribution
,
Aged
,
Aneurysms
2015
Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years.
Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution.
5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients.
In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease.
Journal Article
Long-term mortality outcome of a primary care-based mobile health intervention for stroke management: Six-year follow-up of a cluster-randomized controlled trial
2025
Despite growing evidence of primary care-based interventions for chronic disease management in resource-limited settings, long-term post-trial effects remain inconclusive. We investigated the association of a 12-month system-integrated technology-enabled model of care (SINEMA) intervention with mortality outcomes among patients experiencing stroke at 6-year post-trial.
This study (clinicltiral.gov registration number: NCT05792618) is a long-term passive observational follow-up of participants and their spouse of the SINEMA trial (clinicaltrial.gov registration number: NCT03185858). The original SINEMA trial was a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in 50 villages (clusters) in rural China among patients experiencing stroke during July 2017-July 2018. Village doctors in the intervention arm received training, incentives, and a customized mobile health application supporting monthly follow-ups to participants who also received daily free automated voice-messages. Vital status and causes of death were ascertained using local death registry, standardized village doctor records, and verbal autopsy. The post-trial observational follow-up spanned from 13- to 70-months post-baseline (up to April 30, 2023), during which no intervention was requested or supported. The primary outcome of this study was all-cause mortality, with cardiovascular and stroke cause-specific mortality also reported. Cox proportional hazards models with cluster-robust standard errors were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusting for town, age, and sex in the main analysis model. Analyses were conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. Of 1,299 patients experiencing stroke (mean age 65.7 years, 42.6% females) followed-up to 6 years, 276 (21.2%) died (median time-to-death 43.0 months [quantile 1-quantile 3: 26.7-56.8]). Cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was 19.0% (121 among 637) in the intervention arm versus 23.4% (155 among 662) in the control arm (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59, 0.90; p = 0.004); 14.4% versus 17.7% (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.58, 0.94; p = 0.013) for cardiovascular cause-specific mortality; and 6.0% versus 7.9% (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.44, 1.15; p = 0.16) for stroke cause-specific mortality. Although multisource verification was used to verify the outcomes, limitations exist as the survey- and record-matching-based nature of the study, unavailability of accurate clinical diagnostic records for some cases and the potential confounders that may influence the observed association on mortality.
Despite no observed statistically difference on stroke cause-specific mortality, the 12-month SINEMA intervention, compared with usual care, significantly associated with reduced all-cause and cardiovascular cause-specific mortality during 6 years of follow-up, suggesting potential sustained long-term benefits to patients experiencing stroke.
Journal Article
A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, multi-centre, phase III study of MLC901 (NeuroAiDTMII) for the treatment of cognitive impairment after mild traumatic brain injury
2025
About half of the world population will suffer from a traumatic brain injury (TBI) during their lifetime, of which about 90% of cases are mild TBI. Although up to 40% of adults with mild TBI experience persistent functional deficits, there is no proven-effective treatment to facilitate recovery after it.
This randomized placebo-controlled multi-centre study was aimed to examine the efficacy of herbal supplement MLC901 on complex attention following mild TBI at 6 months post-randomisation, as a primary outcome measured by CNS Vital signs (CNS-VS). Adults aged 18-65 years, who were 1-12-months post-mild TBI and experienced cognitive impairment, were randomly assigned to receive either MLC901 two capsules (0.4g/capsule) or placebo three times a day for 6 months using centralized stratified permuted block randomization. Secondary outcomes: Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ; neurobehavioral sequelae); Health Related Quality of Life (QOLIBRI); Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS); and safety. Mixed effects models of repeated measures with intention to treat analysis were employed. A Least Square Mean Difference (LSMD) from baseline to 3-, 6-, and 9-month follow-up was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
In the analysis, 182 participants (47.8% females) were included. Multivariable mixed effects model analysis did not reveal significant improvements in complex attention (LSMD = -1.18 [95% CI -5.40; 3.03; p = 0.58]) and other cognitive domains at 6 months in the MLC901 group compared to the Placebo group. There were significant improvements in RPQ, QOLIBRI, anxiety and depression in the MLC901 group compared to the Placebo group at 6 and 9 months (LSMD -4.36 [-6.46; -2.26] and -4.07 [-6.22; -1.92], 4.84 [1.58; 8.10] and 3.74 [0.44; 7.03], -1.50 [-2.29; -0.71 and -0.96 [-1.84; -0.08], -1.14 [-1.92; -0.35] and -1.14 [-1.94; -0.34]), respectively. MLC901 tested was proven safe.
Although the 6-month treatment with MLC901 did not result in a statistically significant difference with placebo for CNS-VS measurement of cognitive domains in individuals with mild TBI, the study showed a clinically and statistically significant improvement in all clinical scales assessed by the investigators.
ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04861688.
Journal Article