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The West Coast of the U.S. has a vast offshore wind energy (OWE) electricity generation potential with value on the order of billions of USD, and pressure is mounting to develop large OWE projects. However, this seascape has numerous existing resource extraction uses, including a multi-billion dollar commercial fishing industry, which create the potential for conflict. To date, spatially explicit comparisons of OWE and commercial fisheries value have not been done, but are essential for marine spatial planning and for investigating the tradeoffs of OWE development on existing marine uses. In this analysis, we generate maps of OWE levelized cost of energy and of total economic activity generated by the top eight commercial fishing targets that account for the vast majority (~84%) of landed revenue off the U.S. West Coast. We quantify spatial overlap between these two ocean uses and use multiobjective optimization to develop tradeoff frontiers to investigate implications for both sectors from established state goals or mandates for OWE power generation capacity. There are clear differences in the exposure of each fishery in their traditional fishing grounds as a function of differing OWE capacity goals and outcomes vary depending on whether OWE development goals are achieved at a state-by-state level or a region-wide level. Responsible siting of OWE projects includes careful consideration of existing commercial fishing activities, and responsible transition to renewable energies on the West Coast and elsewhere accounts for the socio-economic consequences of the total economic activity associated with each fishery.

1. Coasts and estuaries contain among the most productive and ecologically important habitats in the world and face intense pressure from current and projected human activities, including coastal development. Seagrasses are a key habitat feature in many estuaries perceived to be in widespread decline owing to human actions. 2. We use spatio-temporal models and a 41-year time series from 100s of km of shoreline which includes over 160 000 observations from Puget Sound, Washington, USA, to examine multiscale trends and drivers of eelgrass (Zostera spp.) change in an urbanizing estuary. 3. At whole estuary scale (100s of km), we find a stable and resilient eelgrass population despite a more than doubling of human population density and multiple major climactic stressors (e.g. ENSO events) over the period. However, the aggregate trend is not reflected at the site scale (10s of km), where some sites persistently increase while others decline. 4. Site trends were spatially asynchronous; adjacent sites sometimes exhibited opposite trends over the same period. Substantial change in eelgrass occurred at the subsite (0-1 km) scale, including both complete local loss and dramatic increase of eelgrass. 5. Metrics of local human development including shoreline armouring, upland development (imperviousness) and human density provide no explanatory power for eelgrass population change at any spatial scale. 6. Our results suggest that the appropriate scale for understanding eelgrass change is smaller than typically assumed (approximately 1- to 3-km scale) and contrasts strongly with previous work. 7. Synthesis. Despite ongoing conservation concern over seagrasses world-wide, eelgrass in Puget Sound has been highly resilient to both anthropogenic and environmental change over four decades. Our work provides general methods that can be applied to understand spatial and temporal scales of change and can be used to assess hypothesized drivers of change.

In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, adult coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) returning from the ocean to spawn in urban basins of the Puget Sound region have been prematurely dying at high rates (up to 90% of the total runs) for more than a decade. The current weight of evidence indicates that coho deaths are caused by toxic chemical contaminants in land-based runoff to urban streams during the fall spawning season. Non-point source pollution in urban landscapes typically originates from discrete urban and residential land use activities. In the present study we conducted a series of spatial analyses to identify correlations between land use and land cover (roadways, impervious surfaces, forests, etc.) and the magnitude of coho mortality in six streams with different drainage basin characteristics. We found that spawner mortality was most closely and positively correlated with the relative proportion of local roads, impervious surfaces, and commercial property within a basin. These and other correlated variables were used to identify unmonitored basins in the greater Seattle metropolitan area where recurrent coho spawner die-offs may be likely. This predictive map indicates a substantial geographic area of vulnerability for the Puget Sound coho population segment, a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our spatial risk representation has numerous applications for urban growth management, coho conservation, and basin restoration (e.g., avoiding the unintentional creation of ecological traps). Moreover, the approach and tools are transferable to areas supporting coho throughout western North America.

Despite decades of work in environmental science and ecology, estimating human influences on ecosystems remains challenging. This is partly due to complex chains of causation among ecosystem elements, exacerbated by the difficulty of collecting biological data at sufficient spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales. Here, we demonstrate the utility of environmental DNA (eDNA) for quantifying associations between human land use and changes in an adjacent ecosystem. We analyze metazoan eDNA sequences from water sampled in nearshore marine eelgrass communities and assess the relationship between these ecological communities and the degree of urbanization in the surrounding watershed. Counter to conventional wisdom, we find strongly increasing richness and decreasing beta diversity with greater urbanization, and similar trends in the diversity of life histories with urbanization. We also find evidence that urbanization influences nearshore communities at local (hundreds of meters) rather than regional (tens of km) scales. Given that different survey methods sample different components of an ecosystem, we then discuss the advantages of eDNA—which we use here to detect hundreds of taxa simultaneously—as a complement to traditional ecological sampling, particularly in the context of broad ecological assessments where exhaustive manual sampling is impractical. Genetic data are a powerful means of uncovering human-ecosystem interactions that might otherwise remain hidden; nevertheless, no sampling method reveals the whole of a biological community.

Protected species bycatch can be rare, making it difficult for fishery managers to develop unbiased estimates of fishing-induced mortality. To address this problem, we use Bayesian time-series models to estimate the bycatch of humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), which have been documented only twice since 2002 by fishery observers in the United States West Coast sablefish pot fishery, once in 2014 and once in 2016. This model-based approach minimizes under- and over-estimation associated with using ratio estimators based only on intra-annual data. Other opportunistic observations of humpback whale entanglements have been reported in United States waters, but, because of spatio-temporal biases in these observations, they cannot be directly incorporated into the models. Notably, the Bayesian framework generates posterior predictive distributions for unobserved entanglements in addition to estimates and associated uncertainty for observed entanglements. The United States National Marine Fisheries Service began using Bayesian time-series to estimate humpback whale bycatch in the United States West Coast sablefish pot fishery in 2019. That analysis resulted in estimates of humpback whale bycatch in the fishery that exceeded the previously anticipated bycatch limits. Those results, in part, contributed to a review of humpback whale entanglements in this fishery under the United States Endangered Species Act. Building on the humpback whale example, we illustrate how the Bayesian framework allows for a wide range of commonly used distributions for generalized linear models, making it applicable to a variety of data and problems. We present sensitivity analyses to test model assumptions, and we report on covariate approaches that could be used when sample sizes are larger. Fishery managers anywhere can use these models to analyze potential outcomes for management actions, develop bycatch estimates in data-limited contexts, and guide mitigation strategies.

Despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, little is known about how their impacts flow through social and ecological systems or whether management actions can dampen deleterious effects. We examined how the record 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave influenced trade-offs in managing conflict between conservation goals and human activities using a case study on large whale entanglements in the U.S. west coast’s most lucrative fishery (the Dungeness crab fishery). We showed that this extreme climate event diminished the power of multiple management strategies to resolve trade-offs between entanglement risk and fishery revenue, transforming near win–win to clear win–lose outcomes (for whales and fishers, respectively). While some actions were more cost-effective than others, there was no silver-bullet strategy to reduce the severity of these trade-offs. Our study highlights how extreme climate events can exacerbate human–wildlife conflict, and emphasizes the need for innovative management and policy interventions that provide ecologically and socially sustainable solutions in an era of rapid environmental change.

Urbanization poses a global challenge to species conservation. This is primarily understood in terms of physical habitat loss, as agricultural and forested lands are replaced with urban infrastructure. However, aquatic habitats are also chemically degraded by urban development, often in the form of toxic stormwater runoff. Here we assess threats of urbanization to coho salmon throughout developed areas of the Puget Sound Basin in Washington, USA. Puget Sound coho are a sentinel species for freshwater communities and also a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Previous studies have demonstrated that stormwater runoff is unusually lethal to adult coho that return to spawn each year in urban watersheds. To further explore the relationship between land use and recurrent coho die-offs, we measured mortality rates in field surveys of 51 spawning sites across an urban gradient. We then used spatial analyses to measure landscape attributes (land use and land cover, human population density, roadways, traffic intensity, etc.) and climatic variables (annual summer and fall precipitation) associated with each site. Structural equation modeling revealed a latent urbanization gradient that was associated with road density and traffic intensity, among other variables, and positively related to coho mortality. Across years within sites, mortality increased with summer and fall precipitation, but the effect of rainfall was strongest in the least developed areas and was essentially neutral in the most urbanized streams. We used the best-supported structural equation model to generate a predictive mortality risk map for the entire Puget Sound Basin. This map indicates an ongoing and widespread loss of spawners across much of the Puget Sound population segment, particularly within the major regional north-south corridor for transportation and development. Our findings identify current and future urbanization-related threats to wild coho, and show where green infrastructure and similar clean water strategies could prove most useful for promoting species conservation and recovery.

Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) is a foundational species in Puget Sound (Washington State, U.S.A.) and is subject to many anthropogenic threats. We assessed the overall status of the Puget Sound Pacific herring sub-stock complex and asked whether watersheds with less urban or agricultural land cover, less impervious surface, and lower human density were associated with better stock status. To this end, we developed multiple metrics of sub-stock population status; characterized watershed properties with respect to land use/land cover, percent impervious surfaces, and human density; and used statistical model selection to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of our hypotheses. Overall, the status of sub-stocks was poor; metrics for most sub-stocks indicate a decline from 1996–2021. However, the status metrics of sub-stocks were not related to recent (2016) watershed characteristics or the rate of change in watershed characteristics from the mid-1990s to 2016. While the cumulative effects of local human land use throughout Puget Sound may be contributing to the deterioration of spawning biomass, these results also suggest that other drivers that operate at larger scales (e.g., predation, disease, climate) are likely important.

Many organisms exhibit tremendous fluctuations in population abundance and experience unexpected collapse. Conservationists seeking to minimize region‐wide variability in resources and reduce extinction risk often seek to preserve a metapopulation portfolio of spatially asynchronous subpopulations connected by dispersal. However, portfolio properties are not necessarily static, and the erosion of a portfolio can fundamentally alter the population dynamics and services a species provides. In the Northeast Pacific, a portfolio of spatially asynchronous herring populations has historically provided regional reliability of herring to mobile predators and commercial fishermen as well as local subsistence and ceremonial harvest. Here, we fit a mechanistic time‐series model to herring spawn and catch records from 1950 to 2015 to quantify how population growth, climate, and fishing have contributed to a major shift in the herring portfolio over time. We document the erosion of the herring portfolio and a severe decline in herring population growth. Commercial harvest historically played a key role in herring dynamics, hovering around typical annual exploitation rates (15%) at the archipelago scale, but local harvest rates were much higher when fishing occurred (as high as 65%). Additionally, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and population growth had equally strong effects on local and regional herring population dynamics. Our results highlight how spatially structured populations can undergo major shifts following disturbance and emphasize how ecological systems do not always rapidly recover and provide services following disturbance. Developing herring management strategies at a finer scale may ensure greater regional resource reliability by recovering previous levels of spatial population asynchrony. However, doing so may require higher implementation and monitoring costs in order to yield higher ecological, social, and economic benefits. Such place‐based solutions that match the spatial scale of governance to the spatial scale of ecological dynamics have the potential to improve future management and conservation in an increasingly dynamic world.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for obtaining ecological insight into species–habitat relationships and providing advice for natural resource management. Many SDMs have been developed over the past decades, with a focus on space- and more recently, time-dependence. However, most of these studies have been on terrestrial species and applications to marine species have been limited. In this study, we used three large spatio-temporal data sources (habitat maps, survey-based fish density estimates, and fishery catch data) and a novel space-time model to study how the distribution of fishing may affect the seasonal dynamics of a commercially important fish species (Pacific Dover sole, Microstomus pacificus) off the west coast of the USA. Dover sole showed a large scale change in seasonal and annual distribution of biomass, and its distribution shifted from mid-depth zones to inshore or deeper waters during late summer/early fall. In many cases, the scale of fishery removal was small compared to these broader changes in biomass, suggesting that seasonal dynamics were primarily driven by movement and not by fishing. The increasing availability of appropriate data and space-time modeling software should facilitate extending this work to many other species, particularly those in marine ecosystems, and help tease apart the role of growth, natural mortality, recruitment, movement, and fishing on spatial patterns of species distribution in marine systems.