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In recent years, rate of penetration (ROP) prediction using machine learning has attracted considerable interest. However, few studies have addressed ROP prediction uncertainty and its relation to training data and model inputs. This paper presents the application of a quantile regression deep neural network (QRDNN) for ROP prediction on multi-lateral wells drilled in the Alvheim field of the North Sea. The quantile regression framework allows the characterization of the prediction uncertainty, which can inform the end-user on whether the model predictions are reliable. Three different training strategies for the QRDNN model are investigated. The first strategy uses individual hole sections of the multi-lateral well to train the model, which is then tested on sections of similar hole size. In the second strategy, the models are trained for specific formations encountered in the well, assuming the formation tops are known for both the training and test sections. The third strategy uses training data from offset wells from the same field as the multi-lateral well, exploring different offset–well combinations and input features. The resulting QRDNN models are tested on several complete well sections excluded from the training data, each several kilometers long. The second and third strategies give the lowest mean absolute percentage errors of their median predictions of 27.3% and 28.7% respectively—all without recalibration for the unknown test well sections. Furthermore, the third model based on offset training gives a robust prediction of uncertainty with over 99.6% of actual values within the predicted P10 and P90 percentiles.

الكتاب في الحقيقة هو ترجمة لمقالة واحدة تخص بغداد من ضمن مجموعة مقالات عن العراق كان قد وضعها ضابط البحرية البريطاني جيمس فيلكس جونز خلال عمله في العراق من 1840 وحتى 1855 وتم نشرها في بضعة أعداد من الدورية الجغرافية الملكية في بومبي ولندن ونظر لأهمية هذه المقالات تعهدت حكومة الهند البريطانية بجمعها وإصدارها سوية في كتاب بعنوان مذكرات القائد البحري جيمس فيلكس جونز وطبعت في بومبي من قبل مطبعة الجمعية التربوية في سنة 1857. اعتمد المترجم على نسخة الكتاب التي بحوزة مكتبة المتحف العراقي وهي نسخة نفيسة همش عليها وأضاف إليها الكثير من التعليقات المفيدة المرحوم يعقوب سركيس. لذلك جاءت الترجمة لموضوعة محال بغداد، في أسمائها ومواقعها وتاريخها، في غاية الدقة والروعة في المعلومة والإبداع في التنسيق والتنظيم، لما اجتمع من توثيق لأصل المصدر المعاصر، ثم المعالجة التاريخية والمعرفية الشاملة للمحقق يعقوب سركيس على هامش الكتاب وبعدها إضافات المترجم والمعلق التي أغنت قائمة محال بغداد القديمة بحس معرفي تاريخي وجغرافي شامل قل نظيره. لكن للأسف جاءت خارطة بغداد الملونة والمفصلة الكبيرة لمحلات بغداد في الكتاب الأصلي، صغيرة الحجم، غير واضحة المعالم، في أحد الصفحات الأخيرة من الكتاب المترجم. كان من الممكن الاستعانة بالخارطة المترجمة عن خارطة جونز الأصلية، المنشورة في كتاب بغداد الذي وضعه محمد مكية وآخرون، سنة 1969. وعلى الرغم من الجهود المضنية والحثيثة المبذولة من قبل المترجم السيد عبد الهادي فنجان الساعدي والمعلق السيد معن حمدان علي في سبيل إخراج الكتاب إلى القارئ العربي والعراقي بالخصوص، لما لهذا الكتاب من أهمية تاريخية كبيرة ومرجعية معرفية رائدة لمدينة بغداد، إلا أن الترجمة جاءت للأسف بالعديد من الأخطاء والهفوات في بعض الأحيان، إضافة إلى عدم الدقة في البحث والتحقق من بعض المعلومات وأنا إذ أدرج أدناه بعض من هذه النواقص والهفوات، ليس لي غاية سوى، أمنيتي أن تصحح وتعالج هذه الشوائب في طبعة قادمة، للحفاظ على الجهود القيمة التي بذلت من آجل أن يكون الكتاب مرجعا توثيقيا مهما يليق ببغداد وتاريخها.

Christianity teaches that man does not find his end in this world, but transcends all earthly political ends. This doctrine implies a natural question for political philosophers: can men who do not accept the teachings of revealed religion act justly? Can they promote the common good and give God his due?In this thesis, I argue that Augustine recognizes a natural virtue of justice that can be cultivated by pagans and that there is a fitting earthly peace that follows upon it. I begin with a chapter that provides a general sketch of Augustine’s City of God, focusing on his position that all human societies are made up of citizens of the two cities. I then provide a brief introduction to the problem of pagan justice posed by Augustine’s treatment of Rome in book nineteen. The second chapter defends the existence of a natural virtue of religion in Augustine. In it I consider the religious practices of the two cities, with particular focus on Augustine’s use of historical figures as archetypes for presenting his vision. I propose that Augustine believes that pagan religion, though always disordered, exists on a continuum from depravity to naturally virtuous forms.The third chapter addresses justice and peace. I first consider the nature of man’s true happiness and then posit that even pagans can take part in religious acts that are not entirely unjust to God. I then consider A) Augustine’s Ciceronian argument in book nineteen that Rome was never a commonwealth and B) how Augustine’s new definition of a people allows for pagan polities to find political unity in cultivating common loves. I then argue that Augustine’s account of peace implicitly presumes the existence of a natural virtue of justice. This kind of justice can lead to what Augustine refers to as the peace of Babylon. Using the conclusion of my investigations in chapter two, I speculate that this peace exists in an even fuller way when it is pursued by those who act as justly as a pagan can towards God. I close with a consideration of the ecclesia permixta, the doctrine that the two cities are intermingled in this world, followed by some remarks on how the pagan virtue of justice and its consequent peace are worthy of cultivation in Augustine’s view, despite the fact that they are not salvific.

Let NFA b ( q ) denote the set of languages accepted by nondeterministic finite automata with q states over an alphabet with b letters. Let B n denote the set of words of length n . We give a quadratic lower bound on the VC dimension of NFA 2 ( q ) ∩ B n = { L ∩ B n ∣ L ∈ NFA 2 ( q ) } as a function of q . Next, the work of Gruber and Holzer (Theoret. Comput. Sci. 387 (2): 155–166, 2007 ) gives an upper bound for the nondeterministic state complexity of finite languages contained in B n , which we strengthen using our methods. Finally, we give some theoretical and experimental results on the dependence on n of the VC dimension and testing dimension of NFA 2 ( q ) ∩ B n .

En los últimos años, el uso de estructuras metálicas con perfiles tubulares ha experimentado un notable aumento debido a su comportamiento estructural y su aspecto estético en las construcciones. Como resultado, se han desarrollado normativas para regular el dimensionamiento y comportamiento de las uniones de este tipo de perfiles estructurales.Los programas de análisis por elementos finitos se han convertido en herramientas poderosas para simular y optimizar el comportamiento de las estructuras. En este trabajo, se presenta un estudio numérico de uniones soldadas tipo K con espaciamiento, utilizando perfiles tubulares de acero de sección cuadrada en las diagonales y el cordón. Se desarrollaron modelos numéricos con un estudio de refinamiento de malla y condiciones de borde para determinar la configuración más eficiente.Los modelos se calibraron utilizando ensayos experimentales de autores citados en la bibliografía, y se llevó a cabo un estudio paramétrico variando el espaciamiento entre las diagonales y el material de los perfiles disponibles en el mercado nacional. Se compararon las tensiones máximas antes de la falla según los criterios establecidos por la normativa.En general, los modelos calibrados mostraron una excelente correlación con los ensayos experimentales, validando el estudio paramétrico de las uniones que permiten identificar configuraciones seguras de uniones tubulares, optimizando el proceso de diseño y evitando costosos ensayos experimentales. Los resultados obtenidos demostraron que las uniones con menor espaciamiento son más resistentes.

Background The prevalence of MDROs in nursing homes (NH) is much higher than that of hospitals. Decolonization to reduce the reservoir of MDRO carriage in NH residents may be a strategy to address MDRO spread within and among healthcare facilities. Methods PROTECT is an 18-month cluster randomized trial of 1:1 universal decolonization vs. routine care in 28 NHs in California. Decolonization consists of chlorhexidine (CHG) bathing plus twice daily nasal iodophor on admission and Monday–Friday biweekly. We assessed pre- vs. post-intervention MDRO prevalence by sampling 50 randomly selected residents at each NH as an outcome unrelated to the trial’s primary intent (infection, hospitalization reduction). NH residents had nasal swabs cultured for methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), and skin (axilla/groin) swabs taken for MRSA, vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE), extended-spectrum β-lactamase producers (ESBL), and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Generalized linear mixed models (GLM) assessed the difference in differences of MDRO prevalence using an arm by period interaction term, clustering by NH. Results Four NHs dropped from the trial. Among the 24 NHs that remained, MDRO colonization at baseline was 49.4% and 47.5% of residents in control (N = 650) vs. decolonization (N = 550) NHs, with no difference in MRSA, VRE, ESBL, and CRE (Table 1). Among remaining NHs, decolonization was associated with 28.8% raw decrease in MDRO prevalence in decolonization sites (GLM OR = 0.51, P < 0.001), 24.3% raw decrease in MRSA (OR = 0.66, P = 0.03), 61.0% raw decrease in VRE (OR = 0.17, P < 0.001), and 51.9% raw decrease in ESBL (OR = 0.40, P < 0.001). CRE increased, but numbers were small (Control arm: 10 in baseline, 4 in intervention; intervention arm: 1 in baseline, 2 in intervention, P = NS). Conclusion Universal NH decolonization with CHG bathing and nasal iodophor resulted in a marked decrease in Gram-positive and Gram-negative MDRO prevalence. This decrease may lower MDRO acquisition, infection, and antibiotic use within NHs, as well as regional MDRO spread to other healthcare facilities. Disclosures All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

This thesis examines the notion of authenticity as it relates to folk music, particularly fado, a genre of urban folk music most commonly found in Lisbon, Portugal. It argues that authenticity, rather than being an inherent feature of the music, is ascribed by each individual on a case-by-case basis, and that the individual’s judgement of the value of a performance is dependent on this apparent authenticity. In particular, this thesis addresses the way tradition and “the traditional” are viewed, and the impact of commercialisation and modernisation as they relate to the notion and perception of authenticity. In order to better explore the ideas of tradition and authenticity, this thesis identifies a number of different factors that impinge on the perception of such characteristics, including the way in which fado has been commodified by the recording and tourist industries, the way in which fado performances came to be standardised in the twentieth century, and attitudes towards the evolution of the genre as a result of modernisation. Rather than simply focus on the musical features of fado performance and their fidelity to the “traditional\", this thesis examines the value that authenticity and tradition are seen to have to both the performer and the listener. This is achieved through a critical analysis of existing scholarship concerning authenticity, coupled with the author’s observations of fado performances and interviews conducted with individuals involved with fado; these include professional musicians and singers, audience members, and those involved with the operation of fado houses in Lisbon. Other important features of fado are discussed, such as the role that it plays in the lives of its practitioners, its cathartic value, the identity that is constructed through involvement with fado, and the status accorded to the genre and its practitioners by both those involved with it and those outside of it. This thesis advocates two central ideas regarding authenticity in fado. The first is that there can be no absolute standard or measure of authenticity, but rather it is ascribed on a case-by-case basis and is a personal judgement that may differ from one individual to the next. Second, while authenticity is important, it does not render that which is deemed to be inauthentic as an object of lesser value but, rather, the two types serve different functions, and therefore cannot be judged in the same way. Subsidiary to this, the thesis argues that the terms “amateur” and “professional” are not to be taken as opposite points on the same scale, because they actually describe two different orders of things: “amateur” implies a personal state of mind and belief whereas “professional” simply indicates one who receives money for a performance. In this way this thesis contributes to the fields of ethnomusicology and popular musicology and builds upon previous scholarship in order to enable a greater understanding of the nature and role of tradition and authenticity in popular folk music.

Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under four climate projections. Climate change is found to always reduce national welfare, with poor and urban households and the northern Savannah zone being the worst affected. However, there is wide variation across scenarios in the size of climate impacts and in the relative importance of sectoral impact channels, thus underscoring the need for multi-sector approaches that account for climate uncertainty. Our analysis of adaptation options indicates that investing in agricultural research and extension, and improved road surfaces, are potentially cost-effective means of mitigating most of the damages from climate change in Ghana.