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Under increasingly variable rainfall, trends toward more intense and less frequent daily‐scale precipitation have been identified using regional and global averages. However, it has not been explicitly demonstrated whether and where these trends are co‐located, which is important given their potential impacts on land surface processes. Here, using global observation and model‐based data sets, we find that trends toward fewer, larger daily precipitation events are common and relatively distributed across terrestrial ecosystems; they are approximately as common as trends toward more, larger daily precipitation events (which underpin increases in annual precipitation totals). Therefore, widespread precipitation intensification is not consistently increasing annual precipitation totals partly because precipitation events, especially of small‐to‐moderate depths (<10 mm/day), are simultaneously becoming less frequent. Independent of the consequences of changes in mean annual precipitation, these daily‐scale precipitation alterations can substantially impact water resource availability, floods, land‐atmosphere interactions, crop yields, wildfire fuel loads, and carbon sequestration.

Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.

Growing evidence indicates that ecosystem processes may be differentially sensitive to dry versus wet years, and that current understanding of how precipitation affects ecosystem processes may not be predictive of responses to extremes. In an experiment within a mesic grassland, we addressed this uncertainty by assessing responses of two key carbon exchange processes—aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and soil respiration (R s)—to an extensive gradient of growing season precipitation. This gradient comprised 11 levels that specifically included extreme values in precipitation; defined as the 1st, 5th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of the 112-year climate record. Across treatments, our experimental precipitation gradient linearly increased soil moisture availability in the rooting zone (upper 20 cm). Relative to ANPP under nominal precipitation amounts (defined as between the 15th and 85th percentiles), the magnitude of ANPP responses were greatest to extreme increases in precipitation, with an underlying linear response to both precipitation and soil moisture gradients. By contrast, R s exhibited marginally greater responses to dry versus wet extremes, with a saturating relationship best explaining responses of R s to both precipitation and soil moisture. Our findings indicate a linear relationship between ANPP and precipitation after incorporating responses to precipitation extremes in the ANPP–precipitation relationship, yet in contrast saturating responses of R s. As a result, current linear ANPP–precipitation relationships (up to ~ 1000 mm) within mesic grasslands appear to hold as appropriate benchmarks for ecosystems models, yet such models should incorporate nonlinearities in responses of R s amid increased frequencies and magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

In semiarid regions, vegetation constraints on plant growth responses to precipitation (PPT) are hypothesized to place an upper limit on net primary productivity (NPP), leading to predictions of future shifts from currently defined linear to saturating NPP–PPT relationships as increases in both dry and wet PPT extremes occur. We experimentally tested this prediction by imposing a replicated gradient of growing season PPT (GSP, n = 11 levels, n = 4 replicates), ranging from the driest to wettest conditions in the 75-yr climate record, within a semiarid grassland. We focused on responses of two key ecosystem processes: aboveground NPP (ANPP) and soil respiration (R s). ANPP and R s both exhibited greater relative responses to wet vs. dry GSP extremes, with a linear relationship consistently best explaining the response of both processes to GSP. However, this responsiveness to GSP peaked at moderate levels of extremity for both processes, and declined at the most extreme GSP levels, suggesting that greater sensitivity of ANPP and R s to wet vs. dry conditions may diminish under increased magnitudes of GSP extremes. Underlying these responses was rapid plant compositional change driven by increased forb production and cover as GSP transitioned to extreme wet conditions. This compositional shift increased the magnitude of ANPP responses to wet GSP extremes, as well as the slope and variability explained in the ANPP–GSP relationship. Our findings suggest that rapid plant compositional change may act as a mediator of semiarid ecosystem responses to predicted changes in GSP extremes.

The cost and difficulty of manipulative field studies makes low statistical power a pervasive issue throughout most ecological subdisciplines. Ecologists are already aware that small sample sizes increase the probability of committing Type II errors. In this article, we address a relatively unknown problem with low power: underpowered studies must overestimate small effect sizes in order to achieve statistical significance. First, we describe how low replication coupled with weak effect sizes leads to Type M errors, or exaggerated effect sizes. We then conduct a meta-analysis to determine the average statistical power and Type M error rate for manipulative field experiments that address important questions related to global change; global warming, biodiversity loss, and drought. Finally, we provide recommendations for avoiding Type M errors and constraining estimates of effect size from underpowered studies.

• Dryland net primary productivity (NPP) is sensitive to temporal variation in precipitation (PPT), but the magnitude of this ‘temporal sensitivity’ varies spatially. Hypotheses for spatial variation in temporal sensitivity have often emphasized abiotic factors, such as moisture limitation, while overlooking biotic factors, such as vegetation structure. • We tested these hypotheses using spatiotemporal models fit to remote-sensing data sets to assess how vegetation structure and climate influence temporal sensitivity across five dryland ecoregions of the western USA. • Temporal sensitivity was higher in locations and ecoregions dominated by herbaceous vegetation. By contrast, much less spatial variation in temporal sensitivity was explained by mean annual PPT. In fact, ecoregion-specific models showed inconsistent associations of sensitivity and PPT; whereas sensitivity decreased with increasing mean annual PPT in most ecoregions, it increased with mean annual PPT in the most arid ecoregion, the hot deserts. • The strong, positive influence of herbaceous vegetation on temporal sensitivity indicates that herbaceous-dominated drylands will be particularly sensitive to future increases in precipitation variability and that dramatic changes in cover type caused by invasions or shrub encroachment will lead to changes in dryland NPP dynamics, perhaps independent of changes in precipitation.

Many plant traits respond to changes in water availability and might be useful for understanding ecosystem properties such as net primary production (NPP). This is especially evident in grasslands where NPP is water-limited and primarily determined by the traits of dominant species. We measured root and shoot morphology, leaf hydraulic traits, and NPP of four dominant North American prairie grasses in response to four levels of soil moisture in a greenhouse experiment. We expected that traits of species from drier regions would be more responsive to reduced water availability and that this would make these species more resistant to low soil moisture than species from wetter regions. All four species grew taller, produced more biomass, and increased total root length in wetter treatments. Each species reduced its leaf turgor loss point (TLP) in drier conditions, but only two species (one xeric, one mesic) maintained leaf water potential above TLP. We identified a suite of traits that clearly distinguished species from one another, but, surprisingly, these traits were relatively unresponsive to reduced soil moisture. Specifically, more xeric species produced thinner roots with higher specific root length and had a lower root mass fraction. This suggest that root traits are critical for distinguishing species from one another but might not respond strongly to changing water availability, though this warrants further investigation in the field. Overall, we found that NPP of these dominant grass species responded similarly to varying levels of soil moisture despite differences in species morphology, physiology, and habitat of origin.

In recent years, both the intraspecific and interspecific functional diversity (FD) of plant communities have been studied with new approaches to improve an understanding about the mechanisms underlying plant species coexistence. Yet, little is known about how global change drivers will impact intraspecific FD and trait overlap among species, and in particular how this may scale to impacts on community level FD and ecosystem functioning. To address this uncertainty, we assessed the direct and indirect responses of specific leaf area (SLA) among both dominant annual and subordinate perennial species to the independent and interactive effects of nitrogen and snow addition within the Inner Mongnolian steppe. More specifically, we investigated the consequences for these responses on plant community FD, trait overlap and biomass. Nitrogen addition increased the biomass of the dominant annual species and as a result increased total community biomass. This occurred despite concurrent decreases in the biomass of subordinate perennial species. Nitrogen addition also increased intraspecific FD and trait overlap of both annual species and perennial species, and consequently increased the degree of trait overlap in SLA at the community level. However, snow addition did not significantly impact intraspecific FD and trait overlap of SLA for perennial species, but increased intraspecific FD and trait overlap of annual species, of which scaled to changes in community level FD. We found that the responses of the dominant annual species to nitrogen and snow additions were generally more sensitive than the subordinate perennial species within the inner Mongolian grassland communities of our study. As a consequence of this sensitivity, the responses of the dominant species largely drove impacts to community FD, trait overlap and community biomass. In total, our study demonstrates that the responses of dominant species in a community to environmental change may drive the initial trajectories of change to community FD and functioning.

Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a “reality check” for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP–ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.

There is mounting concern that selection and breeding of native grasses for greater biomass production could promote weediness. Yet little is known about the invasion potential or ecological impacts of such selectively bred native grasses. Here we focus on cultivars of native switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) that have undergone selection, breeding, and intraspecific hybridization to improve agronomic traits for biomass production. We evaluated the competitive effects of switchgrass cultivars (EG-2101 and ‘Trailblazer’) and wild switchgrass populations on two native prairie grasses [sideoats grama, Bouteloua curtipendula (Michx.) Torr., and Canada wild rye, Elymus canadensis L.] across a gradient of switchgrass density in a greenhouse. Cultivars produced 48–128% more biomass and reduced sideoats grama biomass by 25–59% more than wild switchgrass. Effects of switchgrass cultivars on Canada wild rye were minimal compared to sideoats grama. Later flowering and larger seed size of cultivars may be contributing to their greater biomass and competitive effects on sideoats grama. These data suggest that breeding switchgrass for enhanced biomass yield may increase competitive effects on some native grasses. Further studies are merited to test the potential for switchgrass biomass cultivars to spread and impact species diversity of restored and remnant native plant communities.