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"Feng, Lianyong"
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The Chinese oil industry : history and future
Chinese energy experts provide a unique overview of the Chinese oil industry. Presenting previously unpublished data, the book examines trends in production and consumption of global significance through to the middle of the 21st century.
Book
Research on the Implementation Effects, Multi-Objective Scheme Selection, and Element Regulation of China’s Carbon Market
With the proposal of China’s “dual carbon” goal, the carbon market has become a vital tool for controlling carbon emissions. This study constructs a system dynamics model encompassing carbon trading, the economy, energy, population, and the environment, and conducts simulation analysis against the backdrop of China’s national carbon market’s implementation. The results indicate that the implementation of China’s national carbon market significantly promotes carbon emissions reduction, albeit at the cost of some economic development in the short term. However, the suppressive effect of the carbon market on carbon emissions is stronger than its negative impact on economic growth. The effects of carbon reduction strengthen with increases in carbon price, quota auction, CCER price, penalty severity, and the quota reduction rate and weaken with a higher CCER offset ratio. A moderate reduction in the tightening quota reduction rate is more conducive to achieving coordinated development across the multiple objectives of carbon reduction, economic development, and energy structure. Under the constraints of multiple objectives involving carbon reduction, economic development, and energy structure, the reasonable range for carbon prices is between CNY 77.9 and CNY 118.9 per ton, with the maximum quota auction of 23.4%. Additionally, the reasonable range for the quota reduction rates is between 0.84% and 2.18%, with the penalty severity set at 7.
Journal Article
A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Impact of China’s Carbon Market on Carbon Emission Efficiency from the Total-Factor Perspective
Excessive carbon emission presents a considerable danger to the sustainability of global development. The carbon market, a crucial mechanism to cut carbon emissions, is gaining more attention from the Chinese government. In this study, provincial-level total-factor carbon emission efficiency in China is assessed, and the influence of the national carbon market on this efficiency is examined. Through the introduction of the carbon market’s internal constraint mechanism, a novel perspective for analyzing the driving mechanism is constructed. Empirical findings indicate that the carbon market significantly improves total-factor carbon emission efficiency. Currently, the constraint mechanism acts as the primary driver of this improvement, while the role of the market-based mechanism remains underutilized. Mediation analysis suggests that the improvement is mainly achieved through adjustments in the energy structure; by contrast, neither technological innovation nor industrial restructuring exhibits a significant effect. The conclusions are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of China’s carbon market. Lastly, several recommendations are proposed.
Journal Article
A Real Options Model for CCUS Investment: CO2 Hydrogenation to Methanol in a Chinese Integrated Refining–Chemical Plant
The scaling up of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment is constrained by multiple factors, including technological immaturity, high capital expenditures, and extended investment return periods. The existing research on CCUS investment decisions predominantly centers on coal-fired power plants, with the utilization pathways placing a primary emphasis on storage or enhanced oil recovery (EOR). There is limited research available regarding the chemical utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2). This study develops an options-based analytical model, employing geometric Brownian motion to characterize carbon and oil price uncertainties while incorporating the learning curve effect in carbon capture infrastructure costs. Additionally, revenues from chemical utilization and EOR are integrated into the return model. A case study is conducted on a process producing 100,000 tons of methanol annually via CO2 hydrogenation. Based on numerical simulations, we determine the optimal investment conditions for the “CO2-to-methanol + EOR” collaborative scheme. Parameter sensitivity analyses further evaluate how key variables—carbon pricing, oil market dynamics, targeted subsidies, and the cost of renewable electricity—influence investment timing and feasibility. The results reveal that the following: (1) Carbon pricing plays a pivotal role in influencing investment decisions related to CCUS. A stable and sufficiently high carbon price improves the economic feasibility of CCUS projects. When the initial carbon price reaches 125 CNY/t or higher, refining–chemical integrated plants are incentivized to make immediate investments. (2) Increases in oil prices also encourage CCUS investment decisions by refining–chemical integrated plants, but the effect is weaker than that of carbon prices. The model reveals that when oil prices exceed USD 134 per barrel, the investment trigger is activated, leading to earlier project implementation. (3) EOR subsidy and the initial equipment investment subsidy can promote investment and bring forward the expected exercise time of the option. Immediate investment conditions will be triggered when EOR subsidy reaches CNY 75 per barrel or more, or the subsidy coefficient reaches 0.2 or higher. (4) The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from photovoltaic sources is identified as a key determinant of hydrogen production economics. A sustained decline in LCOE—from CNY 0.30/kWh to 0.22/kWh, and further to 0.12/kWh or below—significantly advances the optimal investment window. When LCOE reaches CNY 0.12/kWh, the project achieves economic viability, enabling investment potentially as early as 2025. This study provides guidance and reference cases for CCUS investment decisions integrating EOR and chemical utilization in China’s refining–chemical integrated plants.
Journal Article
China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030
This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China’s natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China’s natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China’s energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China’s growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.
Journal Article
Complexity theory for the modern Chinese economy from an information entropy perspective: Modeling of economic efficiency and growth potential
Complexity modelling of economic efficiency and growth potential is increasingly essential for countries and provinces. Evaluating the monetary flows, kinetic energy (efficiency) and potential capacity (resilience) provides crucial information for economic development. In the paper, the authors analyze growth opportunities for the Chinese economy from a system science point of view, using the perspective of information entropy, based on the input-output tables. Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable progress in its economic development. In 2007, China's GDP was at its fastest pace in history at 14.2% growth. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy experienced a downward trend and China's economic development also settled on a medium-low level of development. The traditional perspective is to rank regional development only based on GDP growth, whereas here, the authors advocate another evaluation method based on efficiency and potential growth. Unbalanced regional economic development has become problematic and has become a barrier for sustainability of China's economy. The results of the research indicate firstly that China's regional development in 2007 and 2012 has been unequal between the provinces. Secondly, the authors found that Shandong province had significantly higher indicators for efficiency and potential growth than others in the same circumstances. Authors observe that provinces tend to carry out industrial policies and adjust the structure of industry on a local level. This analysis demonstrates that the spatial imbalance of efficiency and potential of economic development under the perspective of provincial-level regions. From the perspective of industry, it indicates that the supply chain is too short, mainly focusing on the mining and processing of resources and minerals in the original upstream industry chain, while the downstream is not fully utilized. These represent some unique insights yielded through this type of analysis that authors advocate applying more broadly.
Journal Article
Analysis of the Long-Term Impact of Energy Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Case Study of China
In this study, we use the term “energy expenditure” to calculate the direct and indirect energy costs invested in the extraction and conversion of net energy at the end of use in China. In this study, less energy expenditure is assumed to lead to more net energy to fulfill human psychological needs and to develop the economic system. However, in reality, energy expenditure is inevitable, and the question of what maximum energy expenditure is tolerable for economic growth remains. Therefore, we calculated the energy expenditure for China based on embodied energy theory and the IO table from 1987 to 2015 and then used a multivariate linear regression model to test the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure in China. The results show that China’s economic system needs 3217 mtce net energy to ensure that the average annual GDP growth remains higher than 5% into the 2030s, which means that energy expenditure cannot be higher than 45.44% in 2030. According to the EROI forecast, EROI will drop to 1.52:1 in 2030, and the energy expenditure level will reach up to 64%. This figure is far above the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure of 45.44%. If the level of energy expenditure exceeds this limit, the energy industry will hardly supply enough net energy to support economic development in 2030.
Journal Article
Correction: Complexity theory for the modern Chinese economy from an information entropy perspective: Modeling of economic efficiency and growth potential
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227206.].
Journal Article
A Comprehensive Net Energy Analysis and Outlook of Energy System in China
Net energy is the surplus energy after subtracting energy production input, which is regarded as the energy that really promotes social development. At present, a large amount of net energy analysis is concentrated in the preliminary production stage, and there are few deeper studies on energy system. This study mainly uses input–output analysis to estimate energy input (including import input, energy loss and embodied energy), and calculates EROI and Net Energy Supply of energy system in China from 1990 to 2018. The results show that EROI has shown a downward trend in the past. Among all energy sectors, Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power accounts for the highest proportion of energy input, and the proportion of energy loss is gradually increasing. In addition, this study uses the simulated function to establish the relationship between net energy and GDP and makes an outlook of net energy supply and EROI in different scenarios. EROI is likely to decline in the near future, and more attention should be paid to the efficient use of net energy to achieve economic goals.
Journal Article
Analysis of Point-of-Use Energy Return on Investment and Net Energy Yields from China’s Conventional Fossil Fuels
There is a strong correlation between net energy yield (NEY) and energy return on investment (EROI). Although a few studies have researched the EROI at the extraction level in China, none have calculated the EROI at the point of use (EROIPOU). EROIPOU includes the entire energy conversion chain from extraction to point of use. To more comprehensively measure changes in the EROIPOU for China’s conventional fossil fuels, a “bottom-up” model to calculate EROIPOU was improved by extending the conventional calculation boundary from the wellhead to the point of use. To predict trends in the EROIPOU of fossil fuels in China, a dynamic function of the EROI was then used to projections future EROIPOU in this study. Results of this paper show that the EROIPOU of both coal (range of value: 14:1–9.2:1), oil (range of value: 8:1–3.5:1) and natural gas (range of value: 6.5:1–3.5:1) display downward trends during the next 15 years. Based on the results, the trends in the EROIPOU of China’s conventional fossil fuels will rapidly decrease in the future indicating that it is more difficult to obtain NEY from China’s conventional fossil fuels.
Journal Article