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Ecologists have long sought to understand the factors controlling the structure of savanna vegetation. Using data from 2154 sites in savannas across Africa, Australia, and South America, we found that increasing moisture availability drives increases in fire and tree basal area, whereas fire reduces tree basal area. However, among continents, the magnitude of these effects varied substantially, so that a single model cannot adequately represent savanna woody biomass across these regions. Historical and environmental differences drive the regional variation in the functional relationships between woody vegetation, fire, and climate. These same differences will determine the regional responses of vegetation to future climates, with implications for global carbon stocks.

Aim Catastrophic forest mortality due to more extreme rainfall deficits and higher temperatures under future climate scenarios has been predicted. The aim of this study is to explore the magnitude of historical drought‐induced tree mortality under pre‐warming conditions. Location North‐eastern Australia. Time period 1845–2017. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods Field survey, historical analysis and climate analysis. Results We present evidence of 18%–30% tree mortality from recent droughts across three regions of north‐eastern Australia with rainfall deficits less severe than earlier historical droughts. The corrected temperature record represents modest warming at the stations with long records in the vicinity of the study areas. In terms of rainfall deficit the most severe drought on record occurred in the early 20th century, and historical evidence confirms that this drought and earlier droughts before the advent of pastoralism coincided with substantial tree mortality. Main conclusions Dramatic declines in woody biomass in response to drought historically occurred more than once a century and are a natural phenomenon in semi‐arid Australia. The magnitude of drought‐induced tree mortality under natural climate fluctuations requires further investigation in other continents. Widespread drought‐induced tree mortality is not just a recent global change phenomenon and has been underestimated as a natural ecological process. However, even more severe forest die‐off events from more extreme hotter droughts are predicted if Earth’s warming proceeds as currently projected.

Introduction: While the biodiversity value of springs is recognised, it has not been systematically compiled. The aim of the current study is to highlight the extraordinary endemism associated with the isolated habitat of arid-land springs at three locations in two continents. Methods: The habitat endemism of the eukaryote species associated with the aquatic and terrestrial habitats at Ash Meadows in the USA, Byarri in Australia and Cuatro Ciénegas in Mexico was assembled based on their geographic distribution. Results: The currently-known aquatic and semi-aquatic endemic species number 27 at Ash Meadows, 31 at Byarri and 34 at Cuatro Ciénegas. Terrestrial endemic species are represented by two species at Ash Meadows, five at Byarri and 26 at Cuatro Ciénegas. The terrestrial endemics are associated with the scalded areas surrounding the springs impregnated with soda and gypsum. The persistence of the endemics is astonishing given that the wetlands represent tiny islands of habitat (216 small wetlands over 40 km 2 in the case of Byarri). Discussion: A key factor for the persistence and radiation of endemic species is the stability and permanence of the wetlands over evolutionary time-scales. Genetic evidence indicates the presence of both paleo-endemics, species that persisted in spring wetlands as relics of previous mesic climates; and neo-endemics that have dispersed from more mesic environments and subsequently radiated in the spring wetlands as distinct forms. The former evolved from their relatives greater than 106 ya and the latter less than 106 ya. The concentration of endemic species in and around arid-land springs is among the highest concentrations of endemic organisms specialised to a particular habitat and substantiates the paramount conservation significance of desert springs.

(1) The distribution of organisms that inhabit patchy systems is dictated by their ability to move between patches, and the suitability of environmental conditions at patches to which they disperse. Understanding whether the species involved are identical to one another in their environmental requirements and their responses to variance in their environment is essential to understanding ecological processes in these systems, and to the management of species whose patchy and limited distributions present conservation risks. (2) Artesian springs in Australia’s arid interior are “islands” of hospitable wetland in uninhabitable “oceans” of dry land and are home to diverse and threatened assemblages of endemic species with severely restricted distributions. Many have strict environmental requirements, but the role of environmental heterogeneity amongst springs has rarely been considered alongside conventional patch characteristics (isolation and patch geometry). (3) We quantified environmental heterogeneity across springs, and the relationship between spring size, isolation (distances to neighbours) and environmental quality (depth, water chemistry), and patterns of occupancy and population persistence of six endemic spring snail species, all from different families, and with all restricted to a single <8000 ha system of springs in Australia. To do so, a survey was conducted for comparison against survey results of almost a decade before, and environmental variables of the springs were measured. Many of the snail species occupied few sites, and environmental variables strongly covaried, so an ordination-based approach was adopted to assess the relationship between environmental measures and the distribution of each species, and also whether springs that held a higher diversity of snails had specific characteristics. (4) Each snail species occupied a subset of springs (between 5% and 36% of the 85 sampled) and was associated with a particular set of conditions. Of the six species considered in further detail, most were restricted to the few springs that were large and deep. Species in family Tateidae were distinct in having colonised highly isolated springs (with >300 m to nearest neighbour). Springs with highest diversity were significantly larger, deeper and had more numerous neighbours within 300 m than those devoid of endemic snails, or those with low diversity. (5) Although spring size and isolation affect patterns of occupancy, the six snail species had significantly different environmental requirements from one another and these correlated with the distribution pattern of each. Approaches that ignore the role of environmental quality—and particularly depth in springs—are overlooking important processes outside of patch geometry that influence diversity. These organisms are highly susceptible to extinction, as most occupy less than 3 ha of habitat spread across few springs, and habitat degradation continues to compromise what little wetland area is needed for their persistence.

Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E , E 0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

The use of criterion A of the IUCN Red List to categorize species as threatened that have undergone recent decline can lead to the listing of relatively common and widespread species. Loss of habitat through deforestation is a common cause of decline throughout much of the world but is often not incorporated into assessments because of uncertainty about the magnitude of change. A recent assessment of eucalypt species in Australia subject to deforestation provides a method for assessment under criterion A and has implications for listing of long-lived, widespread species affected by deforestation. Scenarios for two widespread eucalypt species subject to extensive deforestation are used to demonstrate how the threat status of a species may be recategorized in a lower threat category as declines resulting from a threatening process are mitigated. I argue that criterion A indicates an appropriate assessment of extinction risk and I provide a simple function based on predicted diminishment of the population decline to identify when a species could be disqualified from a threat category under subcriterion A2 (past decline).

AIM: To investigate the role of clay in limiting the development of woody biomass in drylands. LOCATION: Australia. METHODS: Spatial data representing woody biomass, soil clay content and climate for the Australian continent were interpreted to explore the relationship between a moisture index and woody biomass on clay and non‐clay substrates. Moisture and soil water potential were investigated through time for clay and sand plains. Sub‐soil clay and other soil characteristics were compared between areas with and without high tree mortality after drought. RESULTS: The substantially lower woody biomass on clay soils than non‐clay soils in the drylands of the Australian continent verifies the inverse texture effect. A clay floodplain consistently held more water than an adjacent sandplain, but soil moisture in the clay was effectively inaccessible to plants for much longer periods because of more negative values of water potential in the clay soil. Small increases in sub‐soil clay were associated with high tree mortality. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the ‘inverse texture effect’, which describes the negative association of woody biomass with soil clay content in drylands, may mostly relate to the moisture‐retentive properties of clay rather than being caused by reduced infiltration and enhanced evaporation from clay‐rich soils. Our evidence suggests that clay soils constrain woodiness in drylands by exacerbating water stress, and confirm the fundamental role of aridity in determining woody biomass and the global distribution of grassland.

Aim: Comparative analyses of fire regimes at large geographical scales can potentially identify ecological and climatic controls of fire. Here we describe Australia's broad fire regimes, and explore interrelationships and trade-offs between fire regime components. We postulate that fire regime patterns will be governed by trade-offs between moisture, productivity, fire frequency and fire intensity. Location: Australia. Methods: We reclassified a vegetation map of Australia, defining classes based on typical fuel and fire types. Classes were intersected with a climate classification to derive a map of 'fire regime niches'. Using expert elicitation and a literature search, we validated each niche and characterized typical and extreme fire intensities and return intervals. Satellite-derived active fire detections were used to determine seasonal patterns of fire activity. Results: Fire regime characteristics are closely related to the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon activity. Frequent low-intensity fires occur in the monsoonal north, and infrequent, high-intensity fires in the temperate south, demonstrating a trade-off between frequency and intensity: that is, very high-intensity fires are only associated with very low-frequency fire regimes in the high biomass eucalypt forests of southern Australia. While these forests occasionally experience extremely intense fires (> 50,000 kW m -1 ), such regimes are exceptional, with most of the continent dominated by grass fuels, typically burning with lower intensity (< 5000 kW m -1 ). Main conclusions: Australia's fire regimes exhibit a coherent pattern of frequent, grass-fuelled fires in many differing vegetation types. While eucalypts are a quintessential Australian entity, their contribution as a dominant driver of high-intensity fire regimes, via their litter and bark fuels, is restricted to the forests of the continent's southern and eastern extremities. Our analysis suggests that the foremost driver of fire regimes at the continental scale is not productivity, as postulated conceptually, but the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon rainfall activity.

Plant species with fire-triggered germination are common in many fire-prone ecosystems. For such plants, fire timing in relation to the timing of reproduction may strongly influence post-fire population regeneration if: (a) flowering occurs infrequently (e.g. plants are mast seeders); and (b) seed survival rates are low and input from the current year's flowering therefore contributes a large proportion of the viable dormant seedbank. The role of fire timing in relation to masting as a driver of post-fire recruitment has rarely been examined directly, so this study tested the hypothesis that fires shortly after masting trigger increased recruitment of the obligate-seeding arid zone spinifex, Triodia pungens R. Br., an iteroparous masting grass with smoke-cued germination. Phenological monitoring of T. pungens was conducted over 5 years, while a longitudinal seedbank study assessed the influence of seeding events on soil-stored seedbank dynamics. Concurrently, a fire experiment with randomized blocking was undertaken to test whether T. pungens hummocks burnt shortly after masting have greater post-fire recruitment than hummocks burnt when there has not been recent input of seeds. Triodia pungens flowered in all years, though most flowerings were characterized by high rates of flower abortion. A mast flowering with high seed set in 2012 triggered approx. 200-fold increases in seedbank densities, and seedbank densities remained elevated for 24 months after this event. The fire experiment showed significantly higher recruitment around hummocks burnt 6 months after the 2012 mast event than around hummocks that were burnt but prevented from masting by having inflorescences clipped. Fires shortly after masting trigger mass recruitment in T. pungens because such fires synchronize an appropriate germination cue (smoke) with periods when seedbank densities are elevated. Interactions between natural fire regimes, seedbank dynamics and fire management prescriptions must be considered carefully when managing fire-sensitive masting plants such as T. pungens.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Fire typically triggers extensive regeneration of plants with heat‐stimulated germination by causing short periods of intense soil heating. If plants with heat‐stimulated germination are also subject to seed predation and display mast‐seeding cycles, postfire recruitment may be contingent on the seedfall density of prefire masts, and on whether granivores are satiated at the time of fire. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal seedbank study and a mensurative field experiment in central Australia to examine whether fire and the variation in seedfall density across sites in a mast year interact to influence recruitment of slender mulga (Acacia aptaneura), an iteroparous masting shrub with heat‐stimulated germination. KEY RESULT: The seedbank study showed seedbank pulsing after masting, with mean seed counts in the upper 4‐cm soil layer being 132.8 seeds/m2 12‐mo after a dense seedfall, but only 3.8 seeds/m2 following a year with no seed production. Consistent with this, recruitment increased postfire at sites where denser seedfall had occurred during the preburn mast year. Conversely, little recruitment occurred at unburnt populations, irrespective of prefire seedfall density. CONCLUSIONS: We attribute our findings to: (1) elevated soil temperatures during fires stimulating germination of heat‐cued seeds; and (2) granivore satiation following masting facilitating assimilation of seeds into the soil seedbank. These results highlight the importance of rare seed‐input events for regeneration in fire‐prone systems dominated by masting plants, and provide the first example from an arid biome of fire interacting with masting to influence recruitment.