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"Ferrari, Matt"
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Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination
2018
Control efforts for measles and rubella are intensifying globally. It becomes increasingly important to identify and reach remaining susceptible populations as elimination is approached.
Serological surveys for measles and rubella can potentially measure susceptibility directly, but their use remains rare. In this study, using simulations, we outline key subtleties in interpretation associated with the dynamic context of age-specific immunity, highlighting how the patterns of immunity predicted from disease surveillance and vaccination coverage data may be misleading.
High-quality representative serosurveys could provide a more accurate assessment of immunity if challenges of conducting, analyzing, and interpreting them are overcome. We frame the core disease control and elimination questions that could be addressed by improved serological tools, discussing challenges and suggesting approaches to increase the feasibility and sustainability of the tool.
Accounting for the dynamical context, serosurveys could play a key role in efforts to achieve and sustain elimination.
Journal Article
Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2020
by
Portnoy, Allison
,
Gacic-Dobo, Marta
,
Dixon, Meredith G.
in
Child
,
Coronaviruses
,
COVID-19 vaccines
2021
In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan,* with the objective of eliminating measles
in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020 (1). The Immunization Agenda 2021-2030 (IA2030)
uses measles incidence as an indicator of the strength of immunization systems. The Measles-Rubella Strategic Framework 2021-2030
and the Measles Outbreaks Strategic Response Plan 2021-2023** are aligned with the IA2030 and highlight robust measles surveillance systems to document immunity gaps, identify root causes of undervaccination, and develop locally tailored solutions to ensure administration of 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) to all children. This report describes progress toward World Health Assembly milestones and measles elimination objectives during 2000-2020 and updates a previous report (2). During 2000-2010, estimated MCV first dose (MCV1) coverage increased globally from 72% to 84%, peaked at 86% in 2019, but declined to 84% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. All countries conducted measles surveillance, although fewer than one third achieved the sensitivity indicator target of ≥2 discarded
cases per 100,000 population in 2020. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88% during 2000-2016, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population, rebounded to 120 in 2019, before falling to 22 in 2020. During 2000-2020, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 94%, from 1,072,800 to 60,700, averting an estimated 31.7 million measles deaths. To achieve regional measles elimination targets, enhanced efforts are needed to reach all children with 2 MCV doses, implement robust surveillance, and identify and close immunity gaps.
Journal Article
Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2021
2022
All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have committed to eliminating measles.* The Immunization Agenda 2021-2030 (IA2030)
aims to achieve the regional targets as a core indicator of impact and positions measles as the tracer of a health system's ability to deliver essential childhood vaccines. IA2030 highlights the importance of ensuring rigorous measles surveillance systems to document immunity gaps and achieve 95% coverage with 2 timely doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) among children. This report describes progress toward measles elimination during 2000-2021 and updates a previous report (1). During 2000-2021, estimated global coverage with a first MCV dose (MCV1) increased from 72% to a peak of 86% in 2019, but decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic to 83% in 2020 and to 81% in 2021, the lowest MCV1 coverage recorded since 2008. All countries conducted measles surveillance, but only 47 (35%) of 135 countries reporting discarded cases
achieved the sensitivity indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2021, indicating surveillance system underperformance in certain countries. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88% during 2000-2016, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population, then rebounded to 120 in 2019 during a global resurgence (2), before declining to 21 in 2020 and to 17 in 2021. Large and disruptive outbreaks were reported in 22 countries. During 2000-2021, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 83%, from 761,000 to 128,000; an estimated 56 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination. To regain progress and achieve regional measles elimination targets during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating targeted efforts is necessary to reach all children with 2 MCV doses while implementing robust surveillance and identifying and closing immunity gaps to prevent cases and outbreaks.
Journal Article
Progress Toward Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2022
by
Portnoy, Allison
,
O’Connor, Patrick
,
Caro, William Perea
in
Children
,
Comparative studies
,
COVID-19
2023
Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that requires high population immunity for transmission to be interrupted. All six World Health Organization regions have committed to eliminating measles; however, no region has achieved and sustained measles elimination. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2022. During 2000-2019, estimated coverage worldwide with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increased from 72% to 86%, then declined to 81% in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing the lowest coverage since 2008. In 2022, first-dose MCV coverage increased to 83%. Only one half (72) of 144 countries reporting measles cases achieved the measles surveillance indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2022. During 2021-2022, estimated measles cases increased 18%, from 7,802,000 to 9,232,300, and the number of countries experiencing large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 22 to 37. Estimated measles deaths increased 43% during 2021-2022, from 95,000 to 136,200. Nonetheless, an estimated 57 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2022. In 2022, measles vaccination coverage and global surveillance showed some recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic setbacks; however, coverage declined in low-income countries, and globally, years of suboptimal immunization coverage left millions of children unprotected. Urgent reversal of coverage setbacks experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic can be accomplished by renewing efforts to vaccinate all children with 2 MCV doses and strengthening surveillance, thereby preventing outbreaks and accelerating progress toward measles elimination.Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that requires high population immunity for transmission to be interrupted. All six World Health Organization regions have committed to eliminating measles; however, no region has achieved and sustained measles elimination. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2022. During 2000-2019, estimated coverage worldwide with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increased from 72% to 86%, then declined to 81% in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing the lowest coverage since 2008. In 2022, first-dose MCV coverage increased to 83%. Only one half (72) of 144 countries reporting measles cases achieved the measles surveillance indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2022. During 2021-2022, estimated measles cases increased 18%, from 7,802,000 to 9,232,300, and the number of countries experiencing large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 22 to 37. Estimated measles deaths increased 43% during 2021-2022, from 95,000 to 136,200. Nonetheless, an estimated 57 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2022. In 2022, measles vaccination coverage and global surveillance showed some recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic setbacks; however, coverage declined in low-income countries, and globally, years of suboptimal immunization coverage left millions of children unprotected. Urgent reversal of coverage setbacks experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic can be accomplished by renewing efforts to vaccinate all children with 2 MCV doses and strengthening surveillance, thereby preventing outbreaks and accelerating progress toward measles elimination.
Journal Article
Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) ad hoc meeting, 28 June – 1 July 2024
by
Portnoy, Allison
,
Aggarwal, Rakesh
,
Leung, Kathy
in
Advisory Committees
,
Allergy and Immunology
,
Birth rate
2024
The World Health Organization's Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) serves to independently review and evaluate vaccine-related research to maximize the potential impact of vaccination programs. From 28 June – 1 July 2024, IVIR-AC was convened for an ad hoc meeting to discuss new evidence on criteria for rubella vaccine introduction and the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. This report summarizes background information on rubella virus transmission and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome, meeting structure and presentations, proceedings, and recommendations.
Journal Article
Progress Toward Measles Elimination — Worldwide, 2000–2023
by
O’Connor, Patrick
,
Gacic-Dobo, Marta
,
Sayi, Takudzwa S.
in
Adolescent
,
Child
,
Child, Preschool
2024
Measles vaccination effectively prevents measles, a highly contagious disease that can cause severe complications and death and requires high population immunity to interrupt transmission. This report describes measles elimination progress during 2000-2023. During 2000-2023, an estimated 60.3 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination. However, despite commitment from all six World Health Organization regions to eliminate measles, no region has successfully achieved and maintained measles elimination as of the end of 2023. During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimated global coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) declined to 81%, the lowest level since 2008. MCV1 coverage improved to 83% in 2022 but was unchanged in 2023. From 2022 to 2023, estimated measles cases increased 20% worldwide, from 8,645,000 to 10,341,000; the number of countries experiencing large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 36 to 57. Estimated measles deaths decreased 8%, from 116,800 in 2022 to 107,500 in 2023, primarily because an increased number of cases occurred in countries with lower risk for death. The stagnation in MCV1 coverage means millions of children remain unprotected, leading to increases in cases and outbreaks. Coverage with measles-containing vaccine (MCV) is lower, and measles incidence is higher, in low-income countries and countries experiencing fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable settings, which exacerbate inequities. Urgent and targeted efforts are needed to ensure that all children receive 2 MCV doses and that surveillance is strengthened to hasten progress toward measles elimination.
Journal Article
The impact of news exposure on collective attention in the United States during the 2016 Zika epidemic
by
Cattuto, Ciro
,
Paolotti, Daniela
,
Tizzoni, Michele
in
Analysis
,
Archives & records
,
Biology and life sciences
2020
In recent years, many studies have drawn attention to the important role of collective awareness and human behaviour during epidemic outbreaks. A number of modelling efforts have investigated the interaction between the disease transmission dynamics and human behaviour change mediated by news coverage and by information spreading in the population. Yet, given the scarcity of data on public awareness during an epidemic, few studies have relied on empirical data. Here, we use fine-grained, geo-referenced data from three online sources-Wikipedia, the GDELT Project and the Internet Archive-to quantify population-scale information seeking about the 2016 Zika virus epidemic in the U.S., explicitly linking such behavioural signal to epidemiological data. Geo-localized Wikipedia pageview data reveal that visiting patterns of Zika-related pages in Wikipedia were highly synchronized across the United States and largely explained by exposure to national television broadcast. Contrary to the assumption of some theoretical epidemic models, news volume and Wikipedia visiting patterns were not significantly correlated with the magnitude or the extent of the epidemic. Attention to Zika, in terms of Zika-related Wikipedia pageviews, was high at the beginning of the outbreak, when public health agencies raised an international alert and triggered media coverage, but subsequently exhibited an activity profile that suggests nonlinear dependencies and memory effects in the relation between information seeking, media pressure, and disease dynamics. This calls for a new and more general modelling framework to describe the interaction between media exposure, public awareness and disease dynamics during epidemic outbreaks.
Journal Article
Progress towards measles elimination–worldwide, 2000-2023/Progres accomplis dans le monde en vue de l'elimination de la rougeole, 2000-2023
by
Crowcroft, Natasha S
,
Mulders, Mick N
,
Gacic-Dobo, Marta
in
Coronaviruses
,
Disease transmission
,
Measles
2024
Measles vaccination effectively prevents measles, a highly contagious disease that can cause severe complications and death and requires high population immunity to interrupt transmission. This report describes progress in measles elimination during 2000-2023. During 2000-2023, an estimated 60.3 million deaths due to measles were averted by vaccination. Despite commitment by all 6 WHO regions to eliminate measles, however, no region has successfully achieved and maintained measles elimination as of the end of 2023. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, estimated worldwide coverage with a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) decreased to 81%, the lowest rate since 2008. MCV1 coverage improved to 83% in 2022 but was unchanged in 2023. During 2022-2023, the estimated number of measles cases increased by 20% globally, from 8 645 000 to 10 341 000; and the number of countries that experienced large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 36 to 57. The estimated number of deaths due to measles decreased by 8% as compared with 2022, from 116 800 to 107 500 in 2023, because of an increased number of cases in countries with a lower risk for death. The stagnation in MCV1 coverage means that millions of children remain unprotected, leading to increases in the numbers of cases and outbreaks. Measles-containing vaccine (MCV) coverage is lower and measles incidence is higher in low-income countries and in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable (FCV) settings, which exacerbates inequity. Urgent, targeted efforts are necessary to ensure that all children receive 2 MCV doses and that surveillance is strengthened, hastening progress towards measles elimination.
Journal Article
Progress towards measles elimination–worldwide, 2000-2022/Progres accomplis dans le monde en vue de l'elimination de la rougeole, 2000-2022
by
Crowcroft, Natasha S
,
Portnoy, Allison
,
Mulders, Mick N
in
Coronaviruses
,
Disease transmission
,
Measles
2023
Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that requires high population immunity in order for transmission to be interrupted. All 6 WHO regions have committed themselves to eliminating measles; however, no region has achieved and sustained elimination. This report describes progress in measles elimination during 2000-2022. Estimated coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) worldwide increased from 72% to 86% between 2000 and 2019 and then decreased to 81% in 2021 during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the lowest coverage rate since 2008. In 2022, MCV1 coverage increased to 83%. Only 72 (50%) of 144 countries that reported measles cases achieved the measles surveillance indicator target of >2 discarded cases per 100 000 population in 2022. During 2021-2022, estimated measles cases increased by 18%, from 7 802 000 to 9 232 300, and the number of countries experiencing large or disruptive outbreaks increased from 22 to 37. The estimated number of measles deaths increased by 43% during 2021-2022, from 95 000 to 136 200. Nonetheless, an estimated 57 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2022. In 2022, measles vaccination coverage and global surveillance showed some recovery from the setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, coverage decreased in low-income countries, and, globally, years of suboptimal immunization coverage left millions of children unprotected. Setbacks in coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic must be reversed by renewed efforts to vaccinate all children with 2 MCV doses, strengthen surveillance, prevent outbreaks and accelerate progress towards elimination.
Journal Article