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Estimating rates of COVID-19 infection and associated mortality is challenging due to uncertainties in case ascertainment. We perform a counterfactual time series analysis on overall mortality data from towns in Italy, comparing the population mortality in 2020 with previous years, to estimate mortality from COVID-19. We find that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy in 2020 until September 9 was 59,000–62,000, compared to the official number of 36,000. The proportion of the population that died was 0.29% in the most affected region, Lombardia, and 0.57% in the most affected province, Bergamo. Combining reported test positive rates from Italy with estimates of infection fatality rates from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, we estimate the infection rate as 29% (95% confidence interval 15–52%) in Lombardy, and 72% (95% confidence interval 36–100%) in Bergamo. Estimates of COVID-19-related mortality are limited by incomplete testing. Here, the authors perform counterfactual analyses and estimate that there were 59,000–62,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Italy until 9 th September 2020, approximately 1.5 times higher than official statistics.

We investigate the impact and mitigation of extragalactic foregrounds for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing power spectrum analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 6 (DR6) data. Two independent microwave sky simulations are used to test a range of mitigation strategies. We demonstrate that finding and then subtracting point sources, finding and then subtracting models of clusters, and using a profile bias-hardened lensing estimator together reduce the fractional biases to well below statistical uncertainties, with the inferred lensing amplitude, A lens, biased by less than 0.2σ. We also show that another method where a model for the cosmic infrared background (CIB) contribution is deprojected and high-frequency data from Planck is included has similar performance. Other frequency-cleaned options do not perform as well, either incurring a large noise cost or resulting in biased recovery of the lensing spectrum. In addition to these simulation-based tests, we also present null tests on the ACT DR6 data for sensitivity of our lensing spectrum estimation to differences in foreground levels between the two ACT frequencies used, while nulling the CMB lensing signal. These tests pass whether the nulling is performed at the map or bandpower level. The CIB-deprojected measurement performed on the DR6 data is consistent with our baseline measurement, implying that contamination from the CIB is unlikely to significantly bias the DR6 lensing spectrum. This collection of tests gives confidence that the ACT DR6 lensing measurements and cosmological constraints presented in companion papers to this work are robust to extragalactic foregrounds.

The Milky Way Survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) has so far observed three classical dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs): Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor. Based on the observed line-of-sight velocities and metallicities of their member stars, we apply the axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Multi-Gaussian Expansion modeling (JAM) approach to recover their inner dark matter distributions. In particular, both the traditional single-population Jeans model and the multiple population chemodynamical model are adopted. With the chemodynamical model, we divide member stars of each dSph into metal-rich and metal-poor populations. The metal-rich populations are more centrally concentrated and dynamically colder, featuring lower velocity dispersion profiles than the metal-poor populations. We find a diversity of the inner density slopes γ of dark matter halos, with the best constraints by the single-population or chemodynamical models consistent with each other. The inner density slopes are 0.71−0.35+0.34 , 0.26−0.12+0.22 , and 0.33−0.16+0.20 for Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor, respectively. We also present the measured astrophysical J and D factors of the three dSphs. Our results indicate that the study of the dark matter content of dSphs through stellar kinematics is still subject to uncertainties behind both the methodology and the observed data, through comparisons with previous measurements and datasets.

Semi-solid processes of aluminium alloys, characterised by the coexistence of solid and liquid phases, offer advantages in terms of mechanical properties and fatigue resistance, thanks to the more globular microstructure. Thermodynamic models can be used to analyse the solidification behaviour and to predict the solidification window, ΔT. The CALPHAD method enables the calculation of the phases formed during solidification and the optimisation of alloy composition to meet specific industrial requirements. This study aims to assess how thermodynamic properties in both liquid and solid phases affect the ΔT. Initially, the influence of thermodynamic properties of pure components and interaction parameters was analysed in simplified regular binary systems. To compare these findings with real industrial systems, Al-based alloys were examined. Using available databases, the ΔT was estimated via the CALPHAD method adding alloying elements commonly found in secondary Al-alloys. Finally, the same minority alloying elements were added to Al-Si 8 and 11 wt.% alloys, and the corresponding ΔT were calculated. Cr, Fe, Mg, Mn, and Ti increase the ΔT, while Cu, Ni, and Zn decrease it. The obtained results may serve as a valuable tool for interpreting phenomenological observations and understanding the role of minority elements in the semi-solid processing of secondary Al-Si casting alloys.

On 2025 August 18, the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration reported a subthreshold gravitational-wave candidate detection consistent with a subsolar-mass neutron star merger, denoted S250818k. An optical transient, AT2025ulz, was discovered within the localization region. AT2025ulz initially appeared to meet the expected behavior of kilonova emission, the telltale signature of a binary neutron star merger. The transient subsequently rebrightened after ∼5 days and was classified as a Type IIb supernova. In this work, we analyze the observations of its host galaxy obtained by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). From the DESI spectrum, we obtain a secure redshift of z = 0.084840 ± 0.000006. If S250818k has an astrophysical origin, this places the transient within 2σ of the gravitational-wave distance and results in an integral overlap between the gravitational-wave alert and the transient location of log10I≈3.9−4.2 . Our analysis of the host galaxy’s spectral energy distribution reveals a star-forming, dusty galaxy with stellar mass ∼1010 M⊙, broadly consistent with the population of both short gamma-ray bursts and core-collapse supernova host galaxies. We also present our follow-up of DESI-selected candidate host galaxies using the Fraunhofer Telescope at the Wendelstein Observatory, and show the promise of DESI for associating or rejecting candidate electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave alerts. These results emphasize the value of DESI’s extensive spectroscopic dataset in rapidly characterizing host galaxies, enabling spectroscopic host subtraction, and guiding targeted follow-up.

Galaxy redshift surveys, such as the 2-Degree-Field Survey (2dF) 1 , Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) 2 , 6-Degree-Field Survey (6dF) 3 , Galaxy And Mass Assembly survey (GAMA) 4 and VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS) 5 , have shown that the spatial distribution of matter forms a rich web, known as the cosmic web 6 . Most galaxy survey analyses measure the amplitude of galaxy clustering as a function of scale, ignoring information beyond a small number of summary statistics. Because the matter density field becomes highly non-Gaussian as structure evolves under gravity, we expect other statistical descriptions of the field to provide us with additional information. One way to study the non-Gaussianity is to study filaments, which evolve non-linearly from the initial density fluctuations produced in the primordial Universe. In our study, we report the detection of lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by filaments, and we apply a null test to confirm our detection. Furthermore, we propose a phenomenological model to interpret the detected signal, and we measure how filaments trace the matter distribution on large scales through filament bias, which we measure to be around 1.5. Our study provides new scope to understand the environmental dependence of galaxy formation. In the future, the joint analysis of lensing and Sunyaev–Zel’dovich observations might reveal the properties of ‘missing baryons’, the vast majority of the gas that resides in the intergalactic medium, which has so far evaded most observations. Cosmic filaments evolve nonlinearly from density fluctuations produced in the primordial Universe. Detection of cosmic microwave background lensing by filaments allows the measurement of how filaments trace the matter distribution on large scales.

We present tomographic measurements of structure growth using cross-correlations of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) DR6 and Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing maps with the unWISE Blue and Green galaxy samples, which span the redshift ranges 0.2 ≲ z ≲ 1.1 and 0.3 ≲ z ≲ 1.8, respectively. We improve on prior unWISE cross-correlations not just by making use of the new, high-precision ACT DR6 lensing maps, but also by including additional spectroscopic data for redshift calibration and by analyzing our measurements with a more flexible theoretical model. We determine the amplitude of matter fluctuations at low redshifts (z ≃ 0.2–1.6), finding S8≡σ8(Ωm/0.3)0.5=0.813±0.021 using the ACT cross-correlation alone and S 8 = 0.810 ± 0.015 with a combination of Planck and ACT cross-correlations; these measurements are fully consistent with the predictions from primary CMB measurements assuming standard structure growth. The addition of baryon acoustic oscillation data breaks the degeneracy between σ 8 and Ω m , allowing us to measure σ 8 = 0.813 ± 0.020 from the cross-correlation of unWISE with ACT and σ 8 = 0.813 ± 0.015 from the combination of cross-correlations with ACT and Planck. These results also agree with the expectations from primary CMB extrapolations in ΛCDM cosmology; the consistency of σ 8 derived from our two redshift samples at z ∼ 0.6 and 1.1 provides a further check of our cosmological model. Our results suggest that structure formation on linear scales is well described by ΛCDM even down to low redshifts z ≲ 1.

We present strong constraints on the spacetime variation of the fine-structure constant α using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In this pilot work, we utilize ∼110,000 galaxies with strong and narrow [O iii] λ λ4959, 5007 emission lines to measure the relative variation Δα/α in space and time. The [O iii] doublet is arguably the best choice for this purpose owing to its wide wavelength separation between the two lines and its strong emission in many galaxies. Our galaxy sample spans a redshift range of 0 < z < 0.95, covering half of all cosmic time. We divide the sample into subsamples in 10 redshift bins (Δz = 0.1), and calculate Δα/α for the individual subsamples. The uncertainties of the measured Δα/α are roughly between 2 × 10−6 and 2 × 10−5. We find an apparent α variation with redshift at a level of Δα/α = (2–3) × 10−5. This is highly likely to be caused by systematics associated with wavelength calibration, since such small systematics can be caused by a wavelength distortion of 0.002–0.003 Å, which is beyond the accuracy that the current DESI data can achieve. We refine the wavelength calibration using sky lines for a small fraction of the galaxies, but this does not change our main results. We further probe the spatial variation of α in small redshift ranges, and do not find obvious, large-scale structures in the spatial distribution of Δα/α. As DESI is ongoing, we will include more galaxies, and by improving the wavelength calibration, we expect to obtain a better constraint that is comparable to the strongest current constraint.

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of \\(A_lens^recon = 1.025 0.017\\) with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB Planck-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a \\(1.6\\%\\) measurement of the parameter combination \\(S_8^CMBL _8\\,(_m/0.3)^0.25 = 0.825^+0.015_-0.013\\). Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to \\(_8 = 0.829 0.009\\) (a \\(1.1\\%\\) determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from Pantheon+, we present a \\(4\\%\\) sound-horizon-independent estimate of \\(H_0=66.42.5\\,km\\,s^-1\\,Mpc^-1 \\). The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a \\(\\)CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from Planck and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the \\(\\) cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

This Science White Paper, prepared in response to the ESA Voyage 2050 call for long-term mission planning, aims to describe the various science possibilities that can be realized with an L-class space observatory that is dedicated to the study of the interactions of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons with the cosmic web. Our aim is specifically to use the CMB as a backlight – and survey the gas, total mass, and stellar content of the entire observable Universe by means of analyzing the spatial and spectral distortions imprinted on it. These distortions result from two major processes that impact on CMB photons: scattering by free electrons and atoms (Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in diverse forms, Rayleigh scattering, resonant scattering) and deflection by gravitational potential (lensing effect). Even though the list of topics collected in this White Paper is not exhaustive, it helps to illustrate the exceptional diversity of major scientific questions that can be addressed by a space mission that will reach an angular resolution of 1.5 arcmin (goal 1 arcmin), have an average sensitivity better than 1 μK-arcmin, and span the microwave frequency range from roughly 50 GHz to 1 THz. The current paper also highlights the synergy of our Backlight mission concept with several upcoming and proposed ground-based CMB experiments.