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Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Abstract The objective of this study was to verify the flight radius and the influence of the climatic season and period of the day on the external activity of Melipona rufiventris bees. The forager bees were released at different distances to evaluate the flight radius. The following were considered for external activities in the four different seasons of the year (Winter, Autumn, Spring, Summer): the entry with no apparent load was considered as nectar/water, entry with defined and opaque mass in the corbicula was considered as pollen, the entry with undefined and shiny mass in the corbicula was considered as resin/clay or bee exit no load and removal of debris, mass trapped by the jaws. Assessments were performed between 6 am and 6 pm each month. M. rufiventris can reach distances of 2 500 meters, however the return decreases as the distance increases. The species performs all activities in and out of the colony during all seasons of the year and periods between 6 am and 6 pm but reduce nectar/water collection and exit from the box without apparent load and with debris between 6:00 am and 10 am in winter. It is concluded that distances greater than 1 500 meters hinder the external activity of bees which is influenced by air temperature, air humidity, time of day, season of the year and food availability. Resumo Objetivou-se com esse estudo verificar o raio de voo e a influência da estação climática e período do dia na atividade externa das abelhas Melipona rufiventris. As abelhas forrageiras foram soltas em diferentes distâncias para avaliar o raio de voo. Para as atividades externas nas quatro diferentes estações do ano (Inverno, Outono, Primavera, Verão) foram consideradas: a entrada sem carga aparente como néctar/água, a entrada com massa definida e opaca na corbícula caracterizada como pólen, a entrada com massa indefinida e brilhante na corbícula caracterizada como resina/argila ou ainda a saída de abelha sem carga e remoção de detritos, massa presa pelas mandíbulas. As avaliações foram realizadas entre 6h e 18h de cada mês. M. rufiventris pode atingir distâncias de 2500 metros, porém o retorno diminui à medida que a distância aumenta. A espécie realiza todas as atividades dentro e fora da colônia durante todas as estações do ano e períodos entre 6h e 18h, mas reduz a coleta de néctar/água e saída caixa sem carga aparente e com detritos entre 6h e 10h no inverno. Conclui-se que distâncias superiores a 1500 metros reduzem a atividade externa das abelhas que é influenciada pela temperatura e umidade do ar, hora do dia, estação do ano e disponibilidade de alimentos.

A lunar landing pad (LLP) represents essential initial infrastructure for establishing sustainable lunar settlements. This study investigates the feasibility of constructing LLPs through in situ resource utilization (ISRU), focusing on an innovative composite material comprising lunar regolith and the high-performance thermoplastic Polyether Ether Ketone (PEEK). The proposed manufacturing approach involves mechanically blending regolith with PEEK granules, compacting the mixture in a mold, and thermally processing it to induce polymer melting and binding. Experimental analysis indicates that a modest binder fraction (15 wt. % PEEK) yields a robust composite with a flexural strength of 14.6 MPa, although exhibiting inherently brittle characteristics. Compaction pressure emerges as a crucial factor influencing material performance. Utilizing these findings, hexagonal modular tiles were designed as the fundamental LLP elements, specifically engineered to optimize manufacturing simplicity, mechanical robustness, stackability for redundancy, and ease of replacement or repair. The tile geometry strategically mitigates brittleness-induced vulnerabilities by avoiding stress concentrations. Explicit finite element analyses validated tile performance under simulated lunar landing conditions corresponding to the European Large Logistic Lander specifications. Results demonstrated safe landing velocities between 0.1 and 0.7 m/s, governed by the binder content and compaction pressure. A clearly identified linear correlation between the binder fraction and permissible impact velocity enables predictive tailoring of the material composition, confirming the suitability and scalability of thermoplastic–regolith composites for future lunar infrastructure development.

Mineral and bone disorder in chronic kidney disease (CKD-MBD) is a triad of biochemical imbalances of calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone and vitamin D, bone abnormalities and soft tissue calcification. Maintaining optimal bone health in children with CKD is important to prevent long-term complications, such as fractures, to optimise growth and possibly also to prevent extra-osseous calcification, especially vascular calcification. In this review, we discuss normal bone mineralisation, the pathophysiology of dysregulated homeostasis leading to mineralisation defects in CKD and its clinical consequences. Bone mineralisation is best assessed on bone histology and histomorphometry, but given the rarity with which this is performed, we present an overview of the tools available to clinicians to assess bone mineral density, including serum biomarkers and imaging such as dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and peripheral quantitative computed tomography. We discuss key studies that have used these techniques, their advantages and disadvantages in childhood CKD and their relationship to biomarkers and bone histomorphometry. Finally, we present recommendations from relevant guidelines—Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes and the International Society of Clinical Densitometry—on the use of imaging, biomarkers and bone biopsy in assessing bone mineral density. Given low-level evidence from most paediatric studies, bone imaging and histology remain largely research tools, and current clinical management is guided by serum calcium, phosphate, PTH, vitamin D and alkaline phosphatase levels only.

This study presents various statistical methods for exploring and summarizing spatial extremal properties in large gridpoint datasets. Extremal properties are inferred from the subset of gridpoint values that exceed sufficiently high, time-varying thresholds. A simple approach is presented for how to choose the thresholds so as to avoid sampling biases from nonstationary differential trends within the annual cycle. The excesses are summarized by estimating parameters of a flexible generalized Pareto model that can account for spatial and temporal variation in the excess distributions. The effect of potentially explanatory factors (e.g., ENSO) on the distribution of extremes can be easily investigated using this model. Smooth spatially pooled estimates are obtained by fitting the model over neighboring grid points while accounting for possible spatial variation across these points. Extreme value theory methods are also presented for how to investigate the temporal clustering and spatial dependency (teleconnections) of extremes. The methods are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere monthly mean gridded temperatures for June–August (JJA) summers from 1870 to 2005.

Background The global impact of Zika virus in Latin America has drawn renewed attention to circulating mosquito-borne viruses in this region, such as dengue and chikungunya. Our objective was to assess socio-ecological factors associated with Aedes mosquito vector density as a measure of arbovirus transmission risk in three cities of potentially recent Zika virus introduction: Ibagué, Colombia; Manta, Ecuador; and Posadas, Argentina, in order to inform disease mitigation strategies. Methods We sampled Aedes mosquito populations in a total of 1086 households, using indoor and peridomestic mosquito collection methods, including light traps, resting traps, traps equipped with chemical attractant and aspirators. For each sampled household, we collected socio-economic data using structured questionnaires and data on microenvironmental conditions using iButton data loggers. Results A total of 3230 female Aedes mosquitoes were collected, of which 99.8% were Aedes aegypti and 0.2% were Aedes albopictus . Mean female Aedes mosquito density per household was 1.71 (standard deviation: 2.84). We used mixed-effects generalized linear Poisson regression analyses to identify predictors of Aedes density, using month, neighborhood and country as random-effects variables. Across study sites, the number of household occupants [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01–1.14], presence of entry points for mosquitoes into the household (IRR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.30–1.76) and presence of decorative vegetation (IRR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.22–1.88) were associated with higher Aedes density; while being in the highest wealth tertile of household wealth (IRR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.66–0.92), knowledge of how arboviruses are transmitted (IRR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–1.00) and regular emptying of water containers by occupants (IRR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.67–0.92) were associated with lower Aedes density. Conclusions Our study addresses the complexities of arbovirus vectors of global significance at the interface between human and mosquito populations. Our results point to several predictors of Aedes mosquito vector density in countries with co-circulation of multiple Aedes -borne viruses, and point to modifiable risk factors that may be useful for disease prevention and control. Graphical Abstract

Objectives: To examine arterial and left ventricular function and their interaction in patients with early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design and setting: Cross-sectional observational study in a university teaching hospital. Patients: 117 patients with stage 2 (60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2) or stage 3 (30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2) non-diabetic CKD, without overt cardiovascular disease were compared with 40 controls. Interventions: Aortic distensibility and left ventricular mass were assessed using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Systolic and diastolic ventricular function and arterial–ventricular elastance (stiffness) were assessed by transthoracic echocardiography. Main outcome measures: Arterial stiffness as measured by aortic distensibility and arterial elastance. Left ventricular mass, left ventricular systolic and diastolic function, including end-diastolic and end-systolic elastance and their relationship with arterial elastance. Results: Compared with controls, patients with CKD 2 and CKD 3 had reduced aortic distensibility (4.12 (1.3) vs 2.94 (1.8) vs 2.18 (1.8)×10–3 mm Hg, p<0.01), increased arterial elastance (1.4 (1.3) vs 1.65 (0.40) vs 1.74 0.48) mm Hg, p<0.05) and increased end-systolic (1.88 (0.48) vs 2.43 (0.83) vs 2.42(0.78) mm Hg/ml, p<0.05) and end diastolic elastances (0.07 (0.04) vs 0.11 (0.04) vs 0.12 (0.04, p<0.01). Aortic distensibility was positively correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (r = 0.349, p<0.01) and indices of elastance were inversely correlated (r =  0.284, p<0.05). Systolic function was not impaired in patients with early CKD compared with controls but diastolic filling velocities (Em) were reduced (8.1 (0.9) vs 7.9 (0.6) vs 7.5 (0.7) cm/s, p<0.01) while mean left atrial pressure (E/Em) was increased (5.6 (1.1), vs 7.4 (1.8) vs 8.0 (2.4), p<0.01) and end-diastolic elastance was increased. Conclusions: Early-stage CKD is characterised by reduced aortic distensibility and increases in arterial, ventricular systolic and diastolic stiffness; arterial–ventricular coupling is preserved. This pattern of pathophysiological abnormalities resembles that seen in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and may account for the high levels of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients at all stages of CKD. Trial Registration Number: NCT00291720

Monitoring the body condition score (BCS) of dairy cows is a management strategy that can assist dairy producers in decision-making. The BCS and its variations reflect the level of body fat reserves and fat mobilization throughout the different stages of lactation. Cows that mobilize excessive amounts of fat reserves in response to the increased energy requirements of the transition period are more likely to have higher beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentration in blood, leading to a higher incidence of hyperketonemia postpartum. In this study, our main objective was to evaluate how both BCS (at 21 d prior to the expected calving date, −21 BCS) and change in BCS during the late dry period (−21 d to calving, ∆BCS) are associated with temporal patterns of blood BHB concentrations during the first two weeks of lactation. Our secondary objective was to characterize the relationship between the change in BCS in the late dry period, and milk yield and milk composition in the first milk test postpartum. In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed BCS at 21 (±3) days before the expected calving date and within three days after calving. Blood BHB concentration was measured at days 3 (±1), 7 (±1), and 14 (±1) postpartum. Hyperketonemia (HYK) was defined as blood BHB ≥ 1.2 mmol/L. To evaluate how −21 BCS and ∆BCS during the late dry period were associated with BHB in early lactation, linear mixed-effects regression models with an unstructured covariate matrix were performed. The association between ∆BCS and incidence of postpartum HYK were determined using a multivariable log-binomial model. A linear regression model was used to evaluate the association between ∆BCS and milk yield and milk composition in the first monthly test-day. Covariates used for model adjustment include parity, season, and baseline BCS. We observed that cows with BCS ≥ 4.0 at 21 d before their expected calving date had the highest BHB concentration postpartum, but no evidence that BCS ≥ 4.0 at 21 d was associated with fluctuations of BHB over time. Cows that experienced a large BCS loss (larger than 0.5 units) during the late dry period had a 61% (95% CI: 1.04, 2.50) higher risk of developing HYK in early lactation and had higher BHB concentrations during early lactation compared with cows with no ∆BCS prepartum. These associations were observed independently of the BCS at −21 d prepartum (baseline). In addition, cows that lost more than 0.5 BCS unit in the late dry period produced 3.3 kg less milk (95% CI: −7.06, 0.45) at the first milk test compared to cows that had no ∆BCS during the late dry period. No evidence of an association between −21 BCS and ∆BCS in the late dry period and milk composition was observed in our study. These results suggest that dynamic measures of BCS during the late dry period, such as ∆BCS, are better at evaluating blood BHB patterns in early lactation than BCS measured at a single time point. Cows with larger BCS loss during the late dry period and with greater parity are more likely to have higher concentrations of blood BHB postpartum, with the highest concentrations reported at 7 d post-calving.

This paper studies the effects of glycerol plasticizers and/or alginate, pectin, and carboxymethylcellulose polysaccharides on the mechanical and physical properties of porphyran-based films to evaluate the films’ ability to be used as food packaging. Films were characterized in terms of their composition, microstructural and morphological features, thermal properties, water interaction, and mechanical performance. All films are homogeneous, transparent, and slightly brownish in color. The structures are amorphous and crosslinked, showing the films’ thermoset nature. Moisture content and water solubility depend on the second polysaccharide added to the porphyran, but they both increase with the addition of glycerol to the formulations; water vapor permeability is strongly affected by the second polysaccharide in the formulation. The films display stiff and brittle mechanical behavior, but ductility increases significantly in formulations containing glycerol plasticizers. The barrier and mechanical performance values of the materials produced were found to be lower than those reported for commercial food packaging. The formulations containing glycerol displayed lower water vapor permeability values, ranging from 2.98 for porphyran/carboxymethylcellulose/glycerol to 6.65 mm.g.d-1.m-2.kPa-1 for porphyran/alginate/glycerol films. All films, except porphyran/glycerol and porphyran/alginate/glycerol, had ultimate tensile strengths above 10 MPa—the threshold value that ensures that a package is ductile enough to withstand handling and forming operations. Furthermore, the porphyran/ pectin/glycerol and porphyran/carboxymethylcellulose/glycerol films displayed sufficiently high ductility values of 2.94 and 3.10%, respectively. These results indicate that the studied porphyran/pectin/glycerol and porphyran/carboxymethylcellulose/glycerol formulations have a combination of physical and mechanical properties that ensure adequate film integrity and function through the complete food packaging supply chain. The results here reported represent an opportunity to extend the scope of porphyran films to applications in the dry food packaging industry.

Raised serum uric acid levels are associated with increased cardiovascular risk in many patient groups, including those with chronic kidney disease. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are showing great promise as a means of lowering cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic kidney disease; yet their actions on serum uric acid are not known. The present study examined the actions of the mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist spironolactone on serum uric acid in patients with early chronic kidney disease. Journal of Human Hypertension (2014) 28, 210-211; doi:10.1038/jhh.2013.66; published online 18 July 2013