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The formulation of a revised land surface parameterization for use within atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) is presented. The model (SiB2) incorporates several significant improvements over the first version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB) described in Sellers et al. The improvements can be summarized as follows: (i) incorporation of a realistic canopy photosynthesis–conductance model to describe the simultaneous transfer of CO2 and water vapor into and out of the vegetation, respectively; (ii) use of satellite data, as described in a companion paper, Part II, to describe the vegetation phenology; (iii) modification of the hydrological submodel to give better descriptions of baseflows and a more reliable calculation of interlayer exchanges within the soil profile; (iv) incorporation of a \"patchy\" snowmelt treatment, which prevents rapid thermal and surface reflectance transitions when the area-averaged snow cover is low and decreasing. To accommodate the changes in (i) and (ii) above, the original two-layer vegetation canopy structure of SiB1 has been reduced to a single layer in SiB2. The use of satellite data in SiB2 and the performance of SiB2 when coupled to a GCM are described in the two companion papers, Parts II and III.

The physiological response of terrestrial vegetation when directly exposed to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration could result in warming over the continents in addition to that due to the conventional CO2 \"greenhouse effect.\" Results from a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model (SiB2-GCM) indicate that, for doubled CO2 conditions, evapotranspiration will drop and air temperature will increase over the tropical continents, amplifying the changes resulting from atmospheric radiative effects. The range of responses in surface air temperature and terrestrial carbon uptake due to increased CO2 are projected to be inversely related in the tropics year-round and inversely related during the growing season elsewhere.

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SREX) explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. Changes in the frequency and severity of the physical events affect disaster risk, but so do the spatially diverse and temporally dynamic patterns of exposure and vulnerability. Some types of extreme weather and climate events have increased in frequency or magnitude, but populations and assets at risk have also increased, with consequences for disaster risk. Opportunities for managing risks of weather- and climate-related disasters exist or can be developed at any scale, local to international. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, SREX is an invaluable assessment for anyone interested in climate extremes, environmental disasters and adaptation to climate change, including policymakers, the private sector and academic researchers.

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO₂ emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000-2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y⁻¹. The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO₂ emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO₂ sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO₂ growth rate have been [almost equal to]65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate-carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.

Recent studies have demonstrated that multiple co-occurring global changes can alter the abundance, diversity, and productivity of plant communities. Belowground processes, often mediated by soil microorganisms, are central to the response of these communities to global change. Very little is known, however, about the effects of multiple global changes on microbial communities. We examined the response of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), microorganisms that mediate the transformation of ammonium into nitrite, to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2, precipitation, temperature, and nitrogen deposition, manipulated on the ecosystem level in a California grassland. Both the community structure and abundance of AOB responded to these simulated global changes. Increased nitrogen deposition significantly altered the structure of the ammonia-oxidizing community, consistently shifting the community toward dominance by bacteria most closely related to Nitrosospira sp. 2. This shift was most pronounced when temperature and precipitation were not increased. Total abundance of AOB significantly decreased in response to increased atmospheric CO2. This decrease was most pronounced when precipitation was also increased. Shifts in community composition were associated with increases in nitrification, but changes in abundance were not. These results demonstrate that microbial communities can be consistently altered by global changes and that these changes can have implications for ecosystem function.

SiB2, the second-generation land-surface parameterization developed by Sellers et al., has been incorporated into the Colorado State University general circulation model and tested in multidecade simulations. The control run uses a \"bucket\" hydrology but employs the same surface albedo and surface roughness distributions as the SiB2 run. Results show that SiB2 leads to a general warming of the continents, as evidenced in the ground temperature, surface air temperature, and boundary-layer-mean potential temperature. The surface sensible heat flux increases and the latent heat flux decreases. This warming occurs virtually everywhere but is most spectacular over Siberia in winter. Precipitation generally decreases over land but increases in the monsoon regions, especially the Amazon basin in January and equatorial Africa and Southeast Asia in July. Evaporation decreases considerably, especially in dry regions such as the Sahara. The excess of precipitation over evaporation increases in the monsoon regions. The precipitable water (vertically integrated water vapor content) generally decreases over land but increases in the monsoon regions. The mixing ratio of the boundary-layer air decreases over nearly all continental areas, however, including the monsoon regions. The average (composite) maximum boundary-layer depth over the diurnal cycle increases in the monsoon regions, as does the average PBL turbulence kinetic energy. The average boundary-layer wind speed also increases over most continental regions. Groundwater content generally increases in rainy regions and decreases in dry regions, so that SiB2 has a tendency to increase its spatial variability. SiB2 leads to a general reduction of cloudiness over land. The net surface longwave cooling of the surface increases quite dramatically over land, in accordance with the increased surface temperatures and decreased cloudiness. The solar radiation absorbed at the ground also increases. SiB2 has modest effects on the simulated general circulation of the atmosphere. Its most important impacts on the model are to improve the simulations of surface temperature and snow cover and to enable the simulation of the net rate of terrestrial carbon assimilation.

For the period 1980–89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980–89 are similar to those for 1985–89 and 1990–94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.

There is general agreement that terrestrial systems in the Northern Hemisphere provide a significant sink for atmospheric CO2; however, estimates of the magnitude and distribution of this sink vary greatly. National forest inventories provide strong, measurement-based constraints on the magnitude of net forest carbon uptake. We brought together forest sector C budgets for Canada, the United States, Europe, Russia, and China that were derived from forest inventory information, allometric relationships, and supplementary data sets and models. Together, these suggest that northern forests and woodlands provided a total sink for 0.6-0.7 Pg of C per year (1 Pg = 1015g) during the early 1990s, consisting of 0.21 Pg C/yr in living biomass, 0.08 Pg C/yr in forest products, 0.15 Pg C/yr in dead wood, and 0.13 Pg C/yr in the forest floor and soil organic matter. Estimates of changes in soil C pools have improved but remain the least certain terms of the budgets. Over 80% of the estimated sink occurred in one-third of the forest area, in temperate regions affected by fire suppression, agricultural abandonment, and plantation forestry. Growth in boreal regions was offset by fire and other disturbances that vary considerably from year to year. Comparison with atmospheric inversions suggests significant land C sinks may occur outside the forest sector.

Question: What are the physical and chemical effects of plant litter on annual grassland community composition, above-ground net primary production (ANPP), and density? Location: California annual grassland. Methods: We manipulated litter and light levels independently and in concert. Litter removal and litter addition treatments tested both the physical and chemical impacts of litter's presence. We additionally simulated the effect of litter physical shading by using shade cloth, and added powdered litter to test for the chemical impacts of decomposing litter. Results: Increased whole litter and shading decreased grass germination and establishment, but not that of forbs or legumes. Species shifts occurred within all groups across treatments, including a transition from small-seeded to large-seeded grass and legume species with increased shading. ANPP was highest in control plots (473 ± 59 g/m2), and species richness was highest in litter removal plots. While the physical effects of litter via shading were significant, the chemical effects of adding powdered litter were negligible. Conclusions: This work suggests that over one growing season, the physical impacts of litter are more important than chemical impacts in shaping community structure and ANPP in annual grasslands. Changes in light availability with altered litter inputs drive shifts in species and functional group composition. Litter feedbacks to ANPP and species composition of local patches may help maintain diversity and stabilize ANPP in this grassland. Nomenclature: Hickman (1993).

To better understand agricultural carbon fluxes in California, USA, we estimated changes in soil carbon and woody material between 1980 and 2000 on 3.6 × 10⁶ ha of farmland in California. Combining the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model with data on harvest indices and yields, we calculated net primary production, woody production in orchard and vineyard crops, and soil carbon. Over the 21-yr period, two trends resulted in carbon sequestration. Yields increased an average of 20%, corresponding to greater plant biomass and more carbon returned to the soils. Also, orchards and vineyards increased in area from 0.7 × 10#x2076; ha to 1.0 × 10⁶ ha, displacing field crops and sequestering woody carbon. Our model estimates that California's agriculture sequestered an average of 19 g C·m⁻²·y⁻¹. Sequestration was lowest in non-rice annual cropland, which sequestered 9 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹ of soil carbon, and highest on land that switched from annual cropland to perennial cropland. Land that switched from annual crops to vineyards sequestered 68 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹, and land that switched from annual crops to orchards sequestered 85 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹. Rice fields, because of a reduction in field burning, sequestered 55 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹ in the 1990s. Over the 21 years, California's 3.6 × 10⁶ ha of agricultural land sequestered 11.0 Tg C within soils and 3.5 Tg C in woody biomass, for a total of 14.5 Tg C statewide. This is equal to 0.7% of the state's total fossil fuel emissions over the same time period. If California's agriculture adopted conservation tillage, changed management of almond and walnut prunings, and used all of its orchard and vineyard waste wood in the biomass power plants in the state, California's agriculture could offset up to 1.6% of the fossil fuel emissions in the state.