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When learning the value of actions in volatile environments, humans often make seemingly irrational decisions that fail to maximize expected value. We reasoned that these ‘non-greedy’ decisions, instead of reflecting information seeking during choice, may be caused by computational noise in the learning of action values. Here using reinforcement learning models of behavior and multimodal neurophysiological data, we show that the majority of non-greedy decisions stem from this learning noise. The trial-to-trial variability of sequential learning steps and their impact on behavior could be predicted both by blood oxygen level-dependent responses to obtained rewards in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and by phasic pupillary dilation, suggestive of neuromodulatory fluctuations driven by the locus coeruleus–norepinephrine system. Together, these findings indicate that most behavioral variability, rather than reflecting human exploration, is due to the limited computational precision of reward-guided learning.

Neural variability, i.e. random fluctuations in neural activity, is a ubiquitous and sizable brain feature that impacts behavior. Its functional role however remains unclear and neural variability is commonly viewed as a nuisance factor degrading behavioral efficiency. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans and computational modeling, we show here that neural variability provides a solution to the open issue regarding how the brain produces efficient adaptive behavior in uncertain and changing environments without facing computational complexity problems. We found that neural variability in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) enables decision-making processes in the mPFC to produce near-optimal behavior in uncertain and ever-changing environments without involving complex computations known in such environments to rapidly become computationally intractable. The results thus suggest that in the same way as genetic variability contributes to adaptive evolution, neural variability contributes to efficient adaptive behavior in real-life environments. Neural variability is a ubiquitous brain feature, but its functional role remains unclear. Here the authors show that neural variability observed in the human prefrontal cortex through fMRI accounts for how the brain produces efficient adaptive behavior in uncertain and changing environments.

Why do moral religions exist? An influential psychological explanation is that religious beliefs in supernatural punishment is cultural group adaptation enhancing prosocial attitudes and thereby large-scale cooperation. An alternative explanation is that religiosity is an individual strategy that results from high level of mistrust and the need for individuals to control others’ behaviors through moralizing. Existing evidence is mixed but most works are limited by sample size and generalizability issues. The present study overcomes these limitations by applying k -fold cross-validation on multivariate modeling of data from >295,000 individuals in 108 countries of the World Values Surveys and the European Value Study. First, this methodology reveals no evidence that European and non-European religious people invest more in collective actions and are more trustful of unrelated conspecifics. Instead, the individuals’ level of religiosity is found to be weakly but positively associated with social mistrust and negatively associated with the production of behaviors, which benefit unrelated members of the large-scale community. Second, our models show that individual variation in religiosity is well explained by the interaction of increased levels of social mistrust and increased needs to moralize other people’s sexual behaviors. Finally, stratified k -fold cross-validation demonstrates that the structures of these association patterns are robust to sampling variability and reliable enough to generalize to out-of-sample data.

In everyday life, humans face environments that feature uncertain and volatile or changing situations. Efficient adaptive behaviour must take into account uncertainty and volatility. Previous models of adaptive behaviour involve inferences about volatility that rely on complex and often intractable computations. Because such computations are presumably implausible biologically, it is unclear how humans develop efficient adaptive behaviours in such environments. Here, we demonstrate a counterintuitive result: simple, low-level inferences confined to uncertainty can produce near-optimal adaptive behaviour, regardless of the environmental volatility, assuming imprecisions in computation that conform to the psychophysical Weber law. We further show empirically that this Weber-imprecision model explains human behaviour in volatile environments better than optimal adaptive models that rely on high-level inferences about volatility, even when considering biologically plausible approximations of such models, as well as non-inferential models like adaptive reinforcement learning. Findling et al. present the Weber-imprecision model of decision-making, which operates on imprecise representations of uncertainty. It produces efficient adaptive behaviour regardless of environmental volatility and fits human behaviour better than optimal adaptive models.

Traditional neural decoders model the relationship between neural activity and behavior within individual trials of a single experimental session, neglecting correlations across trials and sessions. However, animals exhibit similar neural activities when performing the same behavioral task, and their behaviors are influenced by past experiences from previous trials. To exploit these informative correlations in large datasets, we introduce two complementary models: a multi-session reduced-rank regression model that shares similar behaviorally-relevant statistical structure in neural activity across sessions to improve decoding, and a multi-session state-space model that shares similar behavioral statistical structure across trials and sessions. Applied across 433 sessions spanning 270 brain regions in the International Brain Laboratory public mouse Neuropixels dataset, our decoders demonstrate improved decoding accuracy for four distinct behaviors compared to traditional approaches. These results generalize across additional datasets, species, and behavioral tasks. Unlike existing deep learning approaches, our models are interpretable and efficient, uncovering low-dimensional representations that predict animal decisions, quantifying single-neuron contributions to decoding behaviors, and identifying different activation timescales of neural activity across the brain. Code: https://github.com/yzhang511/neural_decoding.

Random noise in information processing systems is widely seen as detrimental to function. But despite the large trial-to-trial variability of neural activity and behavior, humans and other animals show a remarkable adaptability to unexpected adverse events occurring during task execution. This cognitive ability, described as constitutive of general intelligence, is missing from current artificial intelligence (AI) systems which feature exact (noise-free) computations. Here we show that implementing computation noise in recurrent neural networks boosts their cognitive resilience to a variety of adverse conditions entirely unseen during training, in a way that resembles human and animal cognition. In contrast to artificial agents with exact computations, noisy agents exhibit hallmarks of Bayesian inference acquired in a 'zero-shot' fashion - without prior experience with conditions that require these computations for maximizing rewards. We further demonstrate that these cognitive benefits result from free-standing regularization of activity patterns in noisy neural networks. Together, these findings suggest that intelligence may ride on computation noise to promote near-optimal decision-making in adverse conditions without any engineered cognitive sophistication. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.

Regime transitions routinely break stationarity in time series, making calibrated uncertainty as important as point accuracy. We study distribution-free uncertainty for regime-switching forecasting by coupling Deep Switching State Space Models with Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) and its aggregated variant (AgACI). We also introduce a unified conformal wrapper that sits atop strong sequence baselines including S4, MC-Dropout GRU, sparse Gaussian processes, and a change-point local model to produce online predictive bands with finite-sample marginal guarantees under nonstationarity and model misspecification. Across synthetic and real datasets, conformalized forecasters achieve near-nominal coverage with competitive accuracy and generally improved band efficiency.

To solve a new task from minimal experience, it is essential to effectively reuse knowledge from previous tasks, a problem known as meta-learning. Compositional solutions, where common elements of computation are flexibly recombined into new configurations, are particularly well-suited for meta-learning. Here, we propose a compositional meta-learning model that explicitly represents tasks as structured combinations of reusable computations. We achieve this by learning a generative model that captures the underlying components and their statistics shared across a family of tasks. This approach transforms learning a new task into a probabilistic inference problem, which allows for finding solutions without parameter updates through highly constrained hypothesis testing. Our model successfully recovers ground truth components and statistics in rule learning and motor learning tasks. We then demonstrate its ability to quickly infer new solutions from just single examples. Together, our framework joins the expressivity of neural networks with the data-efficiency of probabilistic inference to achieve rapid compositional meta-learning.

In dynamic environments, updating beliefs based on past experiences (priors) is essential for optimal decision-making. Prior utilization is often impaired in psychiatric disorders, affecting perception and behavior. We investigate how Neurexin1α (Nrxn1 α) loss-of-function disrupts this process, providing insight into circuit deficits underlying sensorimotor dysfunction. While the synaptic role of Nrxn1α role is well studied, its impact on network dynamics and decision-making behavior remain unclear. Using widefield calcium imaging, we assess cortex-wide activity in mice performing a two-choice task to probe how priors influence visually-guided decisions. This task requires the mouse to combine sensory evidence with the prior probability over the stimulus side. We find Nrxn1α KO mice underutilized priors and were slower to update choices based on feedback. During decision-making, cortex-wide cortical activity is both elevated and increasingly correlated in Nrxn1α KO mice, independent of task period. Moreover, a larger fraction of cortical variance was explained by movement variables, consistent with stronger coupling of cortical activity to motor signals and a bias toward movement-related dynamics. These findings suggest that core computations underlying decision-making, such as integrating past experience with current evidence, depend on intact synaptic mechanisms shaped by genes like Nrxn1α.

Everyday life features uncertain and ever-changing situations. In such environments, optimal adaptive behavior requires higher-order inferential capabilities to grasp the volatility of external contingencies. These capabilities however involve complex and rapidly intractable computations, so that we poorly understand how humans develop efficient adaptive behaviors in such environments. Here we demonstrate this counterintuitive result: simple, low-level inferential processes involving imprecise computations conforming to the psychophysical Weber Law actually lead to near-optimal adaptive behavior, regardless of the environment volatility. Using volatile experimental settings, we further show that such imprecise, low-level inferential processes accounted for observed human adaptive performances, unlike optimal adaptive models involving higher-order inferential capabilities, their biologically more plausible, algorithmic approximations and non-inferential adaptive models like reinforcement learning. Thus, minimal inferential capabilities may have evolved along with imprecise neural computations as contributing to near-optimal adaptive behavior in real-life environments, while leading humans to make suboptimal choices in canonical decision-making tasks. Footnotes * Corrections in Fig. 2