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The incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) infections is increasing worldwide, particularly NTM lymphadenitis and skin infections (Buruli ulcer). This review summarizes the evidence for the protective effectiveness of BCG vaccination against NTM disease. A systematic search using PRISMA guidelines was done for controlled studies investigating the protective effectiveness of BCG vaccination against NTM disease in immunocompetent individuals. This revealed 10 studies, including almost 12 million participants. Three cohort studies in industrialized countries suggest that the incidence of NTM lymphadenitis is greatly reduced among BCG-vaccinated children compared with BCG-unvaccinated children, with a risk ratio (RR) of 0.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], .01-.21). In two randomized trials in low-income countries, BCG protected against Buruli ulcer for the first 12 months following vaccination (RR, 0.50 [95% CI, .37-.69]). Four case-control studies had conflicting results. One cohort study found that individuals with Buruli ulcer are less likely to develop osteomyelitis if they have a BCG scar (RR, 0.36 [95% CI, .22-.58]). No studies have compared different BCG vaccine strains or the effect of revaccination in this setting. The protective effect of BCG vaccination against NTM should be taken into consideration when deciding on recommendations for discontinuation of universal BCG vaccination programs and in assessing new vaccines designed to replace BCG.

On Dec 8, 2020, deployment of the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination authorised for UK use (BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine) began, followed by an adenoviral vector vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 on Jan 4, 2021. Care home residents and staff, frontline health-care workers, and adults aged 80 years and older were vaccinated first. However, few data exist regarding the effectiveness of these vaccines in older people with many comorbidities. In this post-implementation evaluation of two COVID-19 vaccines, we aimed to determine the effectiveness of one dose in reducing COVID-19-related admissions to hospital in people of advanced age. This prospective test-negative case-control study included adults aged at least 80 years who were admitted to hospital in two NHS trusts in Bristol, UK with signs and symptoms of respiratory disease. Patients who developed symptoms before receiving their vaccine or those who received their vaccine after admission to hospital were excluded, as were those with symptoms that started more than 10 days before hospital admission. We did logistic regression analysis, controlling for time (week), sex, index of multiple deprivations, and care residency status, and sensitivity analyses matched for time and sex using a conditional logistic model adjusting for index of multiple deprivations and care residency status. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number 39557. Between Dec 18, 2020, and Feb 26, 2021, 466 adults were eligible (144 test-positive and 322 test-negative). 18 (13%) of 135 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 90 (34%) of 269 controls received one dose of BNT162b2. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71·4% (95% CI 46·5–90·6). Nine (25%) of 36 people with COVID-19 infection and 53 (59%) of 90 controls received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 80·4% (95% CI 36·4–94·5). When BNT162b2 effectiveness analysis was restricted to the period covered by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, the estimate was 79·3% (95% CI 47·0–92·5). One dose of either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 resulted in substantial risk reductions of COVID-19-related hospitalisation in people aged at least 80 years. Pfizer.

The 1990s saw a questioning of the value of merely satisfying customers and instead focused attention on the importance of customer delight. In a key contribution, Oliver, Rust, and Varki (1997) developed a structural model of the antecedents and consequences of customer delight, acting in parallel with satisfaction, that was generally supported for two entertainment services. However, the effect of delight on intention was significant for symphony ticket purchasers but not for theme park patrons. This article first replicates their path analysis for more mundane visits to consumer Web sites. Then it takes advantage of a larger sample and additional measures to address construct measurement issues and to determine whether customer delight is something more than a nonlinear effect of satisfaction on intention.

Controlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6–35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings. Reopening of universities to students following COVID-19 restrictions risks increased transmission due to high numbers of social contacts and the potential for asymptomatic transmission. Here, the authors use a mathematical model with social contact data to estimate the impacts of reopening a typical non-campus based university in the UK.

Recently, a meningococcal vaccine for group B was approved and deployed into clinical practice. In this trial, the effect of widespread use of this vaccine on the nasopharyngeal carriage of meningococcus group B was assessed in more than 24,000 adolescents in Australia.

An improved understanding of the underlying physicochemical properties of respiratory aerosol that influence viral infectivity may open new avenues to mitigate the transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Previous studies have shown that an increase in the pH of respiratory aerosols following generation due to changes in the gas-particle partitioning of pH buffering bicarbonate ions and carbon dioxide is a significant factor in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. We show here that a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 aerostability results from a moderate increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (e.g. 800 ppm), an effect that is more marked than that observed for changes in relative humidity. We model the likelihood of COVID-19 transmission on the ambient concentration of CO 2 , concluding that even this moderate increase in CO 2 concentration results in a significant increase in overall risk. These observations confirm the critical importance of ventilation and maintaining low CO 2 concentrations in indoor environments for mitigating disease transmission. Moreover, the correlation of increased CO 2 concentration with viral aerostability need to be better understood when considering the consequences of increases in ambient CO 2 levels in our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide concentration has previously been used as a proxy for overall ventilation efficiency to indirectly estimate the risk of indoor SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, authors investigate whether the concentration of carbon dioxide also has a direct mechanistic role in improving transmission efficiency.

Tracking genetic variations from positive SARS-CoV-2 samples yields crucial information about the number of variants circulating in an outbreak and the possible lines of transmission but sequencing every positive SARS-CoV-2 sample would be prohibitively costly for population-scale test and trace operations. Genotyping is a rapid, high-throughput and low-cost alternative for screening positive SARS-CoV-2 samples in many settings. We have designed a SNP identification pipeline to identify genetic variation using sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples. Our pipeline identifies a minimal marker panel that can define distinct genotypes. To evaluate the system, we developed a genotyping panel to detect variants-identified from SARS-CoV-2 sequences surveyed between March and May 2020 and tested this on 50 stored qRT-PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 clinical samples that had been collected across the South West of the UK in April 2020. The 50 samples split into 15 distinct genotypes and there was a 61.9% probability that any two randomly chosen samples from our set of 50 would have a distinct genotype. In a high throughput laboratory, qRT-PCR positive samples pooled into 384-well plates could be screened with a marker panel at a cost of < £1.50 per sample. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of a SNP genotyping panel to provide a rapid, cost-effective, and reliable way to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in an outbreak. Our analysis pipeline is publicly available and will allow for marker panels to be updated periodically as viral genotypes arise or disappear from circulation.

Ongoing surveillance after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) deployment is essential to inform policy decisions and monitor serotype replacement. We report serotype and disease severity trends in 3,719 adults hospitalized for pneumococcal disease in Bristol and Bath, United Kingdom, during 2006–2022. Of those cases, 1,686 were invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD); 1,501 (89.0%) had a known serotype. IPD decreased during the early COVID-19 pandemic but during 2022 gradually returned to prepandemic levels. Disease severity changed throughout this period: CURB65 severity scores and inpatient deaths decreased and ICU admissions increased. PCV7 and PCV13 serotype IPD decreased from 2006–2009 to 2021–2022. However, residual PCV13 serotype IPD remained, representing 21.7% of 2021–2022 cases, indicating that major adult PCV serotype disease still occurs despite 17 years of pediatric PCV use. Percentages of serotype 3 and 8 IPD increased, and 19F and 19A reemerged. In 2020–2022, a total of 68.2% IPD cases were potentially covered by PCV20.

Meningococcal conjugate vaccines protect individuals directly, but can also confer herd protection by interrupting carriage transmission. We assessed the effects of meningococcal quadrivalent glycoconjugate (MenACWY-CRM) or serogroup B (4CMenB) vaccination on meningococcal carriage rates in 18–24-year-olds. In this phase 3, observer-blind, randomised controlled trial, university students aged 18–24 years from ten sites in England were randomly assigned (1:1:1, block size of three) to receive two doses 1 month apart of Japanese Encephalitis vaccine (controls), 4CMenB, or one dose of MenACWY-CRM then placebo. Participants were randomised with a validated computer-generated random allocation list. Participants and outcome-assessors were masked to the treatment group. Meningococci were isolated from oropharyngeal swabs collected before vaccination and at five scheduled intervals over 1 year. Primary outcomes were cross-sectional carriage 1 month after each vaccine course. Secondary outcomes included comparisons of carriage at any timepoint after primary analysis until study termination. Reactogenicity and adverse events were monitored throughout the study. Analysis was done on the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all enrolled participants who received a study vaccination and provided at least one assessable swab after baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, registration number NCT01214850. Between Sept 21 and Dec 21, 2010, 2954 participants were randomly assigned (987 assigned to control [984 analysed], 979 assigned to 4CMenB [974 analysed], 988 assigned to MenACWY-CRM [983 analysed]); 33% of the 4CMenB group, 34% of the MenACWY-CRM group, and 31% of the control group were positive for meningococcal carriage at study entry. By 1 month, there was no significant difference in carriage between controls and 4CMenB (odds ratio 1·2, 95% CI 0·8–1·7) or MenACWY-CRM (0·9, [0·6–1·3]) groups. From 3 months after dose two, 4CMenB vaccination resulted in significantly lower carriage of any meningococcal strain (18·2% [95% CI 3·4–30·8] carriage reduction), capsular groups BCWY (26·6% [10·5–39·9] carriage reduction), capsular groups CWY (29·6% [8·1–46·0] carriage reduction), and serogroups CWY (28·5% [2·8–47·5] carriage reduction) compared with control vaccination. Significantly lower carriage rates were also noted in the MenACWY-CRM group compared with controls: 39·0% (95% CI 17·3–55·0) carriage reduction for serogroup Y and 36·2% (15·6–51·7) carriage reduction for serogroup CWY. Study vaccines were generally well tolerated, with increased rates of transient local injection pain and myalgia in the 4CMenB group. No safety concerns were identified. Although we detected no significant difference between groups at 1 month after vaccine course, MenACWY-CRM and 4CMenB vaccines reduced meningococcal carriage rates during 12 months after vaccination and therefore might affect transmission when widely implemented. Novartis Vaccines.

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.