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"Flanagan, William"
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Ireland Now
Ireland Now is an accessible guide to understanding how
Ireland and the Irish people have changed during the past fifteen
years. Largely as a result of the country's rapidly expanding
economy, Ireland has been transformed from one of the poorest to
one of the richest countries in the European Union. William
Flanagan uses personal, first-hand stories from a wide range of
Irish citizens, including the elderly, farmers, people in small
towns and rural areas, and new immigrants, to illustrate how
various segments of the population are coping with a shifting
social landscape.
Flanagan skillfully weaves his stories of real people together
to reflect themes of promise and loss attached to economic
upheaval, the struggle to maintain traditional ways in the face of
new social and moral orders, the effort to adapt to a country with
an enhanced place in the world economy, and the challenge of
remaining at home as the meaning of home becomes forever
changed.
Based on years of Flanagan's personal experience and careful
research in Ireland, this important book examines the nature of
Irish character and the fusion of tradition and change. It will
appeal to anyone with an interest in Ireland and Irish
identity.
eBook
Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods
Background
Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models.
Methods
We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility.
Results
Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models.
Conclusion
As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility.
Journal Article
Super Mario Bros. encyclopedia : the official guide to the first 30 years, 1985-2015
\"The Super Mario Encyclopedia is jam-packed with content from all seventeen Super Mario games and spans more than 30 years of the franchises history --from the original Super Mario Bros to Super Mario 3D World\"-- Publisher's description.
Book
Development of a population-based microsimulation model of body mass index
The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity has necessitated the development of body mass index (BMI) projection models such as the POpulation HEalth Model (POHEM). This study describes the POHEM-BMI model, a microsimulation tool that can be used to support evidence-based health policy making for obesity reduction.
The National Population Health Survey, the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), and the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) were used to develop and validate a predictive model of BMI for adults and childhood BMI history. Models were incorporated into POHEM and used to transition BMI over time in a fully dynamic simulated Canadian population.
POHEM-BMI projections of self-reported and measured adult BMI and childhood BMI history agree well with CCHS and CHMS validation estimates. Among men and women, average BMI is projected to increase by more than one BMI unit between 2001 and 2030. Projections of self-reported BMI show that 59% of the adult population will be overweight or obese by 2030; projections of measured BMI show that the percentage will be 66%.
Using empirically developed BMI prediction models for adults and childhood BMI history integrated into the POHEM framework, validated projections of BMI for the Canadian population can be produced. Projections of BMI trends could have important applications in tracking the prevalence of related diseases, and in planning and comparing intervention strategies.
Journal Article
Tsubasa omnibus
Battle of the gods: Syaoran and his traveling companions continue to hop, skip, and jump across dimensions -- from a land of demon-hunters that hides a reality-shattering secret, to a world inhabited with furry creatures who are being terrorized by a living squall, and beyond -- all in the name of restoring Sakura's memories.
Book
Trends in risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Canada: temporal, socio-demographic and geographic factors
Temporal trends in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and the impact of socio-economic status on these risk factors remain unclear.
Using data from the National Population Health Survey and the Canadian Community Health Survey, we examined national trends in heart disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity and smoking prevalence from 1994 to 2005, adjusting for age and sex. We stratified data by income adequacy category, body mass index and region of residence.
An estimated 1.29 million Canadians reported having heart disease in 2005, representing increases of 19% for men and 2% for women, relative to 1994. Heart disease increased significantly in the lowest income category (by 27%), in the lower middle income category (by 37%) and in the upper middle income category (by 12%); however, it increased by only 6% in the highest income group. Diabetes increased in all but the highest income group: by 56% in the lowest income group, by 93% in the lower middle income group and by 59% in the upper middle income group. Hypertension increased in all income groups: by 85% in the lowest income group, by 80% in the lower middle income group, by 91% in the upper middle income group and by 117% in the highest income group. Obesity also increased in all income groups: by 20% in the lowest income group, by 25% in the lower middle income group, by 33% in the upper middle income group and by 37% in the highest income group. In addition to socio-economic status, obesity and overweight also modified the trends in risk factors. Diabetes increased to a greater extent among obese participants (61% increase) and overweight participants (25% increase), as did hypertension, which increased by 80% among obese individuals and by 74% among overweight individuals. Trends in diabetes, hypertension and obesity were consistent for all provinces.
During the study period, heart disease, hypertension, diabetes and obesity increased for all or most income groups in Canada. Further interventions supporting modification of lifestyle and risk factors are needed to prevent future cardiovascular disease.
Une version française de ce résumé est disponible à l'adresse www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/cmaj.081629/DC1
Cite as CMAJ 2009. DOI:10.1503/cmaj.081629
Journal Article
Tsubasa omnibus. 3
Battle of the gods: Syaoran and his traveling companions continue to hop, skip, and jump across dimensions--from a land of demon-hunters that hides a reality-shattering secret, to a world inhabited with furry creatures who are being terrorized by a living squall, and beyond--all in the name of restoring Sakura's memories.
Book
The Population Health Model (POHEM): an overview of rationale, methods and applications
The POpulation HEalth Model (POHEM) is a health microsimulation model that was developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order to describe and project health outcomes, including disease incidence, prevalence, life expectancy, health-adjusted life expectancy, quality of life, and healthcare costs. Additionally, POHEM was conceptualized and built with the ability to assess the impact of policy and program interventions, not limited to those taking place in the healthcare system, on the health status of Canadians. Internationally, POHEM and other microsimulation models have been used to inform clinical guidelines and health policies in relation to complex health and health system problems. This paper provides a high-level overview of the rationale, methodology, and applications of POHEM. Applications of POHEM to cardiovascular disease, physical activity, cancer, osteoarthritis, and neurological diseases are highlighted.
Journal Article