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49 result(s) for "Flanner, Mark"
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Integrating anthropogenic heat flux with global climate models
Nearly all energy used for human purposes is dissipated as heat within Earth's land–atmosphere system. Thermal energy released from non‐renewable sources is therefore a climate forcing term. Averaged globally, this forcing is only +0.028 W m−2, but over the continental United States and western Europe, it is +0.39 and +0.68 W m−2, respectively. Here, present and future global inventories of anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) are developed, and parameterizations derived for seasonal and diurnal flux cycles. Equilibrium climate experiments show statistically‐significant continental‐scale surface warming (0.4–0.9°C) produced by one 2100 AHF scenario, but not by current or 2040 estimates. However, significant increases in annual‐mean temperature and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height occur over gridcells where present‐day AHF exceeds 3.0 W m−2. PBL expansion leads to a slight, but significant increase in atmospheric residence time of aerosols emitted from large‐AHF regions. Hence, AHF may influence regional climate projections and contemporary chemistry‐climate studies.
Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change
Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model’s preindustrial bias pattern, a model’s 4xCO₂ bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.
Radiative forcing by light-absorbing particles in snow
As one of the brightest natural surfaces on Earth, the darkening of snow by light-absorbing particles (LAPs) — dust, black carbon or microbial growth — can trigger albedo feedbacks and accelerate snowmelt. Indeed, an increase in black carbon deposition following the industrial revolution has led to the recognition that LAP radiative forcing has contributed to a reduction in the global cryosphere, with corresponding climatic impacts. This Review synthesizes our current understanding of the distribution of radiative forcing by LAPs in snow, and discusses the challenges that need to be overcome to constrain global impacts, including the limited scope of local-scale observations, limitations of remote sensing technology and the representation of LAP-related processes in Earth system models.
Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer
Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m −2 globally and 0.22 W m −2 over East Asia. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system. As a source of soluble iron, anthropogenic combustion iron is considered less important than natural sources. Here, the authors combine new measurements with a global aerosol model and show the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron to be 8 times greater than previous estimates.
SNICAR-ADv3: a community tool for modeling spectral snow albedo
The Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model has been used in various capacities over the last 15 years to model the spectral albedo of snow with light-absorbing constituents (LACs). Recent studies have extended the model to include an adding-doubling two-stream solver and representations of non-spherical ice particles; carbon dioxide snow; snow algae; and new types of mineral dust, volcanic ash, and brown carbon. New options also exist for ice refractive indices and solar-zenith-angle-dependent surface spectral irradiances used to derive broadband albedo. The model spectral range was also extended deeper into the ultraviolet for studies of extraterrestrial and high-altitude cryospheric surfaces. Until now, however, these improvements and capabilities have not been merged into a unified code base. Here, we document the formulation and evaluation of the publicly available SNICAR-ADv3 source code, web-based model, and accompanying library of constituent optical properties. The use of non-spherical ice grains, which scatter less strongly into the forward direction, reduces the simulated albedo perturbations from LACs by ∼9%–31%, depending on which of the three available non-spherical shapes are applied. The model compares very well against measurements of snow albedo from seven studies, though key properties affecting snow albedo are not fully constrained with measurements, including ice effective grain size of the top sub-millimeter of the snowpack, mixing state of LACs with respect to ice grains, and site-specific LAC optical properties. The new default ice refractive indices produce extremely high pure snow albedo (>0.99) in the blue and ultraviolet part of the spectrum, with such values only measured in Antarctica so far. More work is needed particularly in the representation of snow algae, including experimental verification of how different pigment expressions and algal cell concentrations affect snow albedo. Representations and measurements of the influence of liquid water on spectral snow albedo are also needed.
The CCSM4 Land Simulation, 1850–2005
This paper reviews developments for the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), examines the land surface climate simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) compared to CCSM3, and assesses new earth system features of CLM4 within CCSM4. CLM4 incorporates a broad set of improvements including additions of a carbon–nitrogen (CN) biogeochemical model, an urban canyon model, and transient land cover and land use change, as well as revised soil and snow submodels. Several aspects of the surface climate simulation are improved in CCSM4. Improvements in the simulation of soil water storage, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and permafrost that are apparent in offline CLM4 simulations are generally retained in CCSM4. The global land air temperature bias is reduced and the annual cycle is improved in many locations, especially at high latitudes. The global land precipitation bias is larger in CCSM4 because of bigger wet biases in central and southern Africa and Australia. New earth system capabilities are assessed. The present-day air temperature within urban areas is warmer than surrounding rural areas by 1°–2°C, which is comparable to or greater than the change in climate occurring over the last 130 years. The snow albedo feedback is more realistic and the radiative forcing of snow aerosol deposition is calculated as +0.083 W m−2for present day. The land carbon flux due to land use, wildfire, and net ecosystem production is a source of carbon to the atmosphere throughout most of the historical simulation. CCSM4 is increasingly suited for studies of the role of land processes in climate and climate change.
Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model
The Community Land Model is the land component of the Community Climate System Model. Here, we describe a broad set of model improvements and additions that have been provided through the CLM development community to create CLM4. The model is extended with a carbon-nitrogen (CN) biogeochemical model that is prognostic with respect to vegetation, litter, and soil carbon and nitrogen states and vegetation phenology. An urban canyon model is added and a transient land cover and land use change (LCLUC) capability, including wood harvest, is introduced, enabling study of historic and future LCLUC on energy, water, momentum, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes. The hydrology scheme is modified with a revised numerical solution of the Richards equation and a revised ground evaporation parameterization that accounts for litter and within-canopy stability. The new snow model incorporates the SNow and Ice Aerosol Radiation model (SNICAR) - which includes aerosol deposition, grain-size dependent snow aging, and vertically-resolved snowpack heating – as well as new snow cover and snow burial fraction parameterizations. The thermal and hydrologic properties of organic soil are accounted for and the ground column is extended to 50-m depth. Several other minor modifications to the land surface types dataset, grass and crop optical properties, atmospheric forcing height, roughness length and displacement height, and the disposition of snow-capped runoff are also incorporated.Taken together, these augmentations to CLM result in improved soil moisture dynamics, drier soils, and stronger soil moisture variability. The new model also exhibits higher snow cover, cooler soil temperatures in organic-rich soils, greater global river discharge, and lower albedos over forests and grasslands, all of which are improvements compared to CLM3.5. When CLM4 is run with CN, the mean biogeophysical simulation is slightly degraded because the vegetation structure is prognostic rather than prescribed, though running in this mode also allows more complex terrestrial interactions with climate and climate change.
Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact
Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.
LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project - aims, setup and expected outcome
The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (\"LMIP\", building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (\"LFMIP\", building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).
Intercomparison and improvement of two-stream shortwave radiative transfer schemes in Earth system models for a unified treatment of cryospheric surfaces
Snow is an important climate regulator because it greatly increases the surface albedo of middle and high latitudes of the Earth. Earth system models (ESMs) often adopt two-stream approximations with different radiative transfer techniques, the same snow therefore has different solar radiative properties depending whether it is on land or on sea ice. Here we intercompare three two-stream algorithms widely used in snow models, improve their predictions at large zenith angles, and introduce a hybrid model suitable for all cryospheric surfaces in ESMs. The algorithms are those employed by the SNow ICe and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) module used in land models, dEdd–AD used in Icepack, the column physics used in the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE and MPAS-Seaice, and a two-stream discrete-ordinate (2SD) model. Compared with a 16-stream benchmark model, the errors in snow visible albedo for a direct-incident beam from all three two-stream models are small (<±0.005) and increase as snow shallows, especially for aged snow. The errors in direct near-infrared (near-IR) albedo are small (<±0.005) for solar zenith angles θ<75∘, and increase as θ increases. For diffuse incidence under cloudy skies, dEdd–AD produces the most accurate snow albedo for both visible and near-IR (<±0.0002) with the lowest underestimate (−0.01) for melting thin snow. SNICAR performs similarly to dEdd–AD for visible albedos, with a slightly larger underestimate (−0.02), while it overestimates the near-IR albedo by an order of magnitude more (up to 0.04). 2SD overestimates both visible and near-IR albedo by up to 0.03. We develop a new parameterization that adjusts the underestimated direct near-IR albedo and overestimated direct near-IR heating persistent across all two-stream models for θ>75∘. These results are incorporated in a hybrid model SNICAR-AD, which can now serve as a unified solar radiative transfer model for snow in ESM land, land ice, and sea ice components.