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Diabetes is one of the fastest growing diseases worldwide, projected to affect 693 million adults by 2045. Devastating macrovascular complications (cardiovascular disease) and microvascular complications (such as diabetic kidney disease, diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy) lead to increased mortality, blindness, kidney failure and an overall decreased quality of life in individuals with diabetes. Clinical risk factors and glycaemic control alone cannot predict the development of vascular complications; numerous genetic studies have demonstrated a clear genetic component to both diabetes and its complications. Early research aimed at identifying genetic determinants of diabetes complications relied on familial linkage analysis suited to strong-effect loci, candidate gene studies prone to false positives, and underpowered genome-wide association studies limited by sample size. The explosion of new genomic datasets, both in terms of biobanks and aggregation of worldwide cohorts, has more than doubled the number of genetic discoveries for both diabetes and diabetes complications. We focus herein on genetic discoveries for diabetes and diabetes complications, empowered primarily through genome-wide association studies, and emphasize the gaps in research for taking genomic discovery to the next level.This Review describes advances in genomic analysis that have enabled novel genetic discoveries, more than doubled the number of genetic loci associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and uncovered several novel candidate genes for diabetes complications.

Unhealthful dietary habits are leading risk factors for life-altering diseases and mortality. Large-scale biobanks now enable genetic analysis of traits with modest heritability, such as diet. We perform a genomewide association on 85 single food intake and 85 principal component-derived dietary patterns from food frequency questionnaires in UK Biobank. We identify 814 associated loci, including olfactory receptor associations with fruit and tea intake; 136 associations are only identified using dietary patterns. Mendelian randomization suggests our top healthful dietary pattern driven by wholemeal vs. white bread consumption is causally influenced by factors correlated with education but is not strongly causal for coronary artery disease or type 2 diabetes. Overall, we demonstrate the value in complementary phenotyping approaches to complex dietary datasets, and the utility of genomic analysis to understand the relationships between diet and human health. The choice of food intake is at least partially influenced by genetics, even though the effect sizes appear rather modest. Here, Cole et al. perform GWAS for food intake (85 individual food items and 85 derived dietary patterns) and test potential causal relationships with cardiometabolic traits using Mendelian randomization.

Epidemiological studies report associations of diverse cardiometabolic conditions including obesity with COVID-19 illness, but causality has not been established. We sought to evaluate the associations of 17 cardiometabolic traits with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. We selected genetic variants associated with each exposure, including body mass index (BMI), at p < 5 × 10-8 from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then calculated inverse-variance-weighted averages of variant-specific estimates using summary statistics for susceptibility and severity from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative GWAS meta-analyses of population-based cohorts and hospital registries comprising individuals with self-reported or genetically inferred European ancestry. Susceptibility was defined as testing positive for COVID-19 and severity was defined as hospitalization with COVID-19 versus population controls (anyone not a case in contributing cohorts). We repeated the analysis for BMI with effect estimates from the UK Biobank and performed pairwise multivariable MR to estimate the direct effects and indirect effects of BMI through obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. Using p < 0.05/34 tests = 0.0015 to declare statistical significance, we found a nonsignificant association of genetically higher BMI with testing positive for COVID-19 (14,134 COVID-19 cases/1,284,876 controls, p = 0.002; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.02, 1.10] per kg/m2; p = 0.004]) and a statistically significant association with higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (6,406 hospitalized COVID-19 cases/902,088 controls, p = 4.3 × 10-5; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.14 [95% CI 1.07, 1.21] per kg/m2, p = 2.1 × 10-5). The implied direct effect of BMI was abolished upon conditioning on the effect on type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease. No other cardiometabolic exposures tested were associated with a higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Small study samples and weak genetic instruments could have limited the detection of modest associations, and pleiotropy may have biased effect estimates away from the null. In this study, we found genetic evidence to support higher BMI as a causal risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. These results raise the possibility that obesity could amplify COVID-19 disease burden independently or through its cardiometabolic consequences and suggest that targeting obesity may be a strategy to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Abstract During the last decade, there have been substantial advances in the identification and characterization of DNA sequence variants associated with individual predisposition to type 1 and type 2 diabetes. As well as providing insights into the molecular, cellular, and physiological mechanisms involved in disease pathogenesis, these risk variants, when combined into a polygenic score, capture information on individual patterns of disease predisposition that have the potential to influence clinical management. In this review, we describe the various opportunities that polygenic scores provide: to predict diabetes risk, to support differential diagnosis, and to understand phenotypic and clinical heterogeneity. We also describe the challenges that will need to be overcome if this potential is to be fully realized.

Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which there is a synergistic effect of the 2 factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the joint associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes. We analyzed data from 35,759 men and women in the United States participating in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I (1986 to 2016) and II (1991 to 2017) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986 to 2016) with available genetic data and who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Genetic risk was characterized using both a global polygenic score capturing overall genetic risk and pathway-specific polygenic scores denoting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms. Diet quality was assessed using the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. With over 902,386 person-years of follow-up, 4,433 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.32; P < 0.001) per standard deviation (SD) increase in global polygenic score and 1.13 (1.09, 1.17; P < 0.001) per 10-unit decrease in AHEI. Irrespective of genetic risk, low diet quality, as compared to high diet quality, was associated with approximately 30% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (Pinteraction = 0.69). The joint association of low diet quality and increased genetic risk was similar to the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction = 0.30). Limitations of this study include the self-report of diet information and possible bias resulting from inclusion of highly educated participants with available genetic data. These data provide evidence for the independent associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes and suggest that a healthy diet is associated with lower diabetes risk across all levels of genetic risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have long relied on proposed statistical significance thresholds to be able to differentiate true positives from false positives. Although the genome-wide significance P-value threshold of 5 × 10(-8) has become a standard for common-variant GWAS, it has not been updated to cope with the lower allele frequency spectrum used in many recent array-based GWAS studies and sequencing studies. Using a whole-genome- and -exome-sequencing data set of 2875 individuals of European ancestry from the Genetics of Type 2 Diabetes (GoT2D) project and a whole-exome-sequencing data set of 13 000 individuals from five ancestries from the GoT2D and T2D-GENES (Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Exploration by Next-generation sequencing in multi-Ethnic Samples) projects, we describe guidelines for genome- and exome-wide association P-value thresholds needed to correct for multiple testing, explaining the impact of linkage disequilibrium thresholds for distinguishing independent variants, minor allele frequency and ancestry characteristics. We emphasize the advantage of studying recent genetic isolate populations when performing rare and low-frequency genetic association analyses, as the multiple testing burden is diminished due to higher genetic homogeneity.

In this Perspective, Shivani Misra and Jose C Florez discuss the application of precision medicine tools in under-represented populations.In this Perspective, Shivani Misra and Jose C Florez discuss the application of precision medicine tools in under-represented populations.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease for which (1) disease-causing pathways are incompletely understood and (2) subclassification may improve patient management. Unlike other biomarkers, germline genetic markers do not change with disease progression or treatment. In this paper, we test whether a germline genetic approach informed by physiology can be used to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. First, we aimed to categorize genetic loci into groups representing likely disease mechanistic pathways. Second, we asked whether the novel clusters of genetic loci we identified have any broad clinical consequence, as assessed in four separate subsets of individuals with T2D. In an effort to identify mechanistic pathways driven by established T2D genetic loci, we applied Bayesian nonnegative matrix factorization (bNMF) clustering to genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for 94 independent T2D genetic variants and 47 diabetes-related traits. We identified five robust clusters of T2D loci and traits, each with distinct tissue-specific enhancer enrichment based on analysis of epigenomic data from 28 cell types. Two clusters contained variant-trait associations indicative of reduced beta cell function, differing from each other by high versus low proinsulin levels. The three other clusters displayed features of insulin resistance: obesity mediated (high body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC]), \"lipodystrophy-like\" fat distribution (low BMI, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and high triglycerides), and disrupted liver lipid metabolism (low triglycerides). Increased cluster genetic risk scores were associated with distinct clinical outcomes, including increased blood pressure, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke. We evaluated the potential for clinical impact of these clusters in four studies containing individuals with T2D (Metabolic Syndrome in Men Study [METSIM], N = 487; Ashkenazi, N = 509; Partners Biobank, N = 2,065; UK Biobank [UKBB], N = 14,813). Individuals with T2D in the top genetic risk score decile for each cluster reproducibly exhibited the predicted cluster-associated phenotypes, with approximately 30% of all individuals assigned to just one cluster top decile. Limitations of this study include that the genetic variants used in the cluster analysis were restricted to those associated with T2D in populations of European ancestry. Our approach identifies salient T2D genetically anchored and physiologically informed pathways, and supports the use of genetics to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. Classification of patients by these genetic pathways may offer a step toward genetically informed T2D patient management.

Current pharmacological treatment of diabetes is largely algorithmic. Other than for cardiovascular disease or renal disease, where sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and/or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists are indicated, the choice of treatment is based upon overall risks of harm or side effect and cost, and not on probable benefit. Here we argue that a more precise approach to treatment choice is necessary to maximise benefit and minimise harm from existing diabetes therapies. We propose a roadmap to achieve precision medicine as standard of care, to discuss current progress in relation to monogenic diabetes and type 2 diabetes, and to determine what additional work is required. The first step is to identify robust and reliable genetic predictors of response, recognising that genotype is static over time and provides the skeleton upon which modifiers such as clinical phenotype and metabolic biomarkers can be overlaid. The second step is to identify these metabolic biomarkers (e.g. beta cell function, insulin sensitivity, BMI, liver fat, metabolite profile), which capture the metabolic state at the point of prescribing and may have a large impact on drug response. Third, we need to show that predictions that utilise these genetic and metabolic biomarkers improve therapeutic outcomes for patients, and fourth, that this is cost-effective. Finally, these biomarkers and prediction models need to be embedded in clinical care systems to enable effective and equitable clinical implementation. Whilst this roadmap is largely complete for monogenic diabetes, we still have considerable work to do to implement this for type 2 diabetes. Increasing collaborations, including with industry, and access to clinical trial data should enable progress to implementation of precision treatment in type 2 diabetes in the near future.

Although type 2 diabetes has been traditionally understood as a metabolic disorder initiated by insulin resistance, it has recently become apparent that an impairment in insulin secretion contributes to its manifestation and may play a prominent role in its early pathophysiology. The genetic dissection of Mendelian and, more recently, polygenic types of diabetes confirms the notion that primary defects in insulin synthesis, processing and/or secretion often give rise to the common form of this disorder. This concept, first advanced with the discovery and physiological characterisation of various genetic subtypes of MODY, has been extended to other forms of monogenic diabetes (e.g. neonatal diabetes). It has also led to the identification of common risk variants via candidate gene approaches (e.g. the E23K polymorphism in KCNJ11 or common variants in the MODY genes), and it has been validated by the description of the robust physiological effects conferred by polymorphisms in the TCF7L2 gene. More recently, the completion and integration of genome-wide association scans for this disease has uncovered a number of heretofore unsuspected variants, several of which also affect insulin secretion. This review provides an up-to-date account of genetic loci that influence risk of common type 2 diabetes via impairment of beta cell function, outlines their presumed mechanisms of action, and places them in the context of gene-gene and/or gene-environment interactions. Finally, a strategy for the analogous discovery of insulin resistance genes is proposed.