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The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5–92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7–76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2–73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4–34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2–29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.

Breast and cervical cancer are important causes of mortality in women aged ≥15 years. We undertook annual age-specific assessments of breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries. We systematically collected cancer registry data on mortality and incidence, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data for the period 1980–2010. We modelled the mortality-to-incidence (MI) ratio using a hierarchical model. Vital registration and verbal autopsy were supplemented with incidence multiplied by the MI ratio to yield a comprehensive database of mortality rates. We used Gaussian process regression to develop estimates of mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Estimates of incidence with uncertainty were also generated with mortality and MI ratios. Global breast cancer incidence increased from 641 000 (95% uncertainty intervals 610 000–750 000) cases in 1980 to 1 643 000 (1 421 000–1 782 000) cases in 2010, an annual rate of increase of 3·1%. Global cervical cancer incidence increased from 378 000 (256 000–489 000) cases per year in 1980 to 454 000 (318 000–620 000) cases per year in 2010—a 0·6% annual rate of increase. Breast cancer killed 425 000 (359 000–453 000) women in 2010, of whom 68 000 (62 000–74 000) were aged 15–49 years in developing countries. Cervical cancer death rates have been decreasing but the disease still killed 200 000 (139 000–276 000) women in 2010, of whom 46 000 (33 000–64 000) were aged 15–49 years in developing countries. We recorded pronounced variation in the trend in breast cancer mortality across regions and countries. More policy attention is needed to strengthen established health-system responses to reduce breast and cervical cancer, especially in developing countries. Susan G Komen for the Cure and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Objective To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events.Design Systematic review and Bayesian dose-response meta-analysis.Data sources PubMed and Embase from 1980 to 27 February 2016, and references from relevant systematic reviews. Data from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa from 2007 to 2010 and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1999 to 2011 were used to map domain specific physical activity (reported in included studies) to total activity.Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies examining the associations between physical activity (any domain) and at least one of the five diseases studied.Results 174 articles were identified: 35 for breast cancer, 19 for colon cancer, 55 for diabetes, 43 for ischemic heart disease, and 26 for ischemic stroke (some articles included multiple outcomes). Although higher levels of total physical activity were significantly associated with lower risk for all outcomes, major gains occurred at lower levels of activity (up to 3000-4000 metabolic equivalent (MET) minutes/week). For example, individuals with a total activity level of 600 MET minutes/week (the minimum recommended level) had a 2% lower risk of diabetes compared with those reporting no physical activity. An increase from 600 to 3600 MET minutes/week reduced the risk by an additional 19%. The same amount of increase yielded much smaller returns at higher levels of activity: an increase of total activity from 9000 to 12 000 MET minutes/week reduced the risk of diabetes by only 0.6%. Compared with insufficiently active individuals (total activity <600 MET minutes/week), the risk reduction for those in the highly active category (≥8000 MET minutes/week) was 14% (relative risk 0.863, 95% uncertainty interval 0.829 to 0.900) for breast cancer; 21% (0.789, 0.735 to 0.850) for colon cancer; 28% (0.722, 0.678 to 0.768) for diabetes; 25% (0.754, 0.704 to 0.809) for ischemic heart disease; and 26% (0.736, 0.659 to 0.811) for ischemic stroke.Conclusions People who achieve total physical activity levels several times higher than the current recommended minimum level have a significant reduction in the risk of the five diseases studied. More studies with detailed quantification of total physical activity will help to find more precise relative risk estimates for different levels of activity.

According to the Global Burden of Disease Study, between 1990 and 2013, global cardiovascular mortality increased by 55% as a result of aging and by 25% as a result of population growth. A 39% decrease in age-specific death rates resulted in a 41% increase in cardiovascular mortality. Globally, deaths from cardiovascular and circulatory diseases are increasing. 1 This increase represents the combined effect of population growth, the aging of populations, and epidemiologic changes in cardiovascular disease. It is important to disentangle these drivers of the observed trends in global mortality for a number of reasons. First, regional and national investments in cardiovascular health can target only the epidemiologic causes of cardiovascular disease. Second, understanding the roles and relative magnitude of these demographic and epidemiologic trends is important in planning for the health care system and in developing policy. Third, the effects of the aging and growth of the . . .

Introduction Identifying the potential effective factors of rhabdomyolysis-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) is of major importance for both treatment and logistic concerns. The present study aimed to evaluate the value of creatine kinase (CK) in predicting the risk of rhabdomyolysis-induced AKI through meta-analysis. Methods Two reviewers searched the electronic databases of Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Data regarding study design, patient characteristics, number of cases, mean and screening characteristics of CK, and final patient outcome were extracted from relevant studies. Pooled measures of standardized mean difference, OR, and diagnostic accuracy were calculated using STATA version 11.0. Result 5997 non-redundant studies were found (143 potentially relevant). 27 articles met the inclusion criteria but 9 were excluded due to lack of data. The correlation between serum CK and AKI occurrence was stronger in traumatic cases (SMD = 1.34, 95 % CI = 1.25–1.42, I 2  = 94 %; p  < 0.001). This correlation was more prominent in crush-induced AKI (adjusted OR = 14.7, 95 % CI = 7.63–28.52, I 2  = 0.0 %; p  = 0.001). Area under the ROC curve of CK in predicting AKI occurrence was 0.75 (95 % CI = 0.71–0.79). Conclusion The results of this meta-analysis declared the significant role of rhabdomyolysis etiology (traumatic/non-traumatic) in predictive performance of CK. There was a significant correlation between mean CK level and risk of crush-induced AKI. The pooled OR of CK was considerable, but its screening performance characteristics were not desirable.

Despite the increasing availability of typhoid vaccine in many regions, global estimates of mortality attributable to enteric fever appear stable. While both Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) and serovar Paratyphi (S. Paratyphi) cause enteric fever, limited data exist estimating the burden of S. Paratyphi, particularly in Asia and Africa. We performed a systematic review of both English and Chinese-language databases to estimate the regional burden of paratyphoid within Africa and Asia. Distinct from previous reviews of the topic, we have presented two separate measures of burden; both incidence and proportion of enteric fever attributable to paratyphoid. Included articles reported laboratory-confirmed Salmonella serovar classification, provided clear methods on sampling strategy, defined the age range of participants, and specified the time period of the study. A total of 64 full-text articles satisfied inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. Paratyphoid A was commonly identified as a cause of enteric fever throughout Asia. The highest incidence estimates in Asia came from China; four studies estimated incidence rates of over 150 cases/100,000 person-years. Paratyphoid A burden estimates from Africa were extremely limited and with the exception of Nigeria, few population or hospital-based studies from Africa reported significant Paratyphoid A burden. While significant gaps exist in the existing population-level estimates of paratyphoid burden in Asia and Africa, available data suggest that paratyphoid A is a significant cause of enteric fever in Asia. The high variability in documented incidence and proportion estimates of paratyphoid suggest considerable geospatial variability in the burden of paratyphoid fever. Additional efforts to monitor enteric fever at the population level will be necessary in order to accurately quantify the public health threat posed by S. Paratyphi A, and to improve the prevention and treatment of enteric fever.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to provide the first national estimate on the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components and the first ethnic-specific cutoff point for waist circumference in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This national survey was conducted in 2007 on 3,024 Iranians aged 25-64 years living in urban and rural areas of all 30 provinces in Iran. The metabolic syndrome was defined by different criteria, namely the definition of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria, and the modified definition of the NCEP/ATP III (ATP III/American Heart Association [AHA]/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute [NHLBI]). RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was about 34.7% (95% CI 33.1-36.2) based on the ATP III criteria, 37.4% (35.9-39.0%) based on the IDF definition, and 41.6% (40.1-43.2%) based on the ATP III/AHA/NHLBI criteria. By all definitions, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was higher in women, in urban areas, and in the 55- to 64-year age-group compared with the prevalence in men, in rural areas, and in other age-groups, respectively. The metabolic syndrome was estimated to affect >11 million Iranians. The optimal cutoff point of waist circumference for predicting at least two other components of the metabolic syndrome as defined by the IDF was 89 cm for men and 91 cm for women. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome with its considerable burden on the middle-aged population mandates the implementation of national policies for its prevention, notably by tackling obesity. The waist circumference cutoff points obtained can be used in the region.

Although Necrotizing fasciitis can evolve from a trivial lesion, whenever it develops it requires a prompt surgical intervention and broad‐spectrum antibiotic therapy. Although Necrotizing fasciitis can evolve from a trivial lesion, whenever it develops it requires a prompt surgical intervention and broad‐spectrum antibiotic therapy.

BackgroundMeasuring the distribution of health is a part of assessing health system performance. This study aims to estimate health inequality between different socioeconomic groups and its determinants in Tehran, the capital of Iran.MethodsSelf-rated health (SRH) and demographic characteristics, including gender, age, marital status, educational years, and assets, were measured by structured interviews of 2464 residents of Tehran in 2008. A concentration index was calculated to measure health inequality by economic status. The association of potential determinants and SRH was assessed through multivariate logistic regression. The contribution to concentration index of level of education, marital status and other determining factors was assessed by decomposition.ResultsThe mean age of respondents was 41.4 years (SD 17.7) and 49% of them were men. The mean score of SRH status was 3.72 (range: 1–5; SD 0.93). 282 respondents (11.5%) rated their health status as poor or very poor. The concentration index was −0.29 (SE 0.03; p<0.001). Age, marital status, level of education and household economic status were significantly associated with SRH in both the crude and adjusted analyses. The main contributors to inequality in SRH were economic status (47.8%), level of education (29.2%) and age (23.0%).ConclusionsSub-optimal SRH was more in lower than in higher economic status. After controlling for age, the levels of education and household wealth have the greatest contributions to SRH inequality.

High concentration of fine particles (PM2.5), the primary concern about air quality in China, is believed to closely relate to China's large consumption of coal. In order to quantitatively identify the contributions of coal combustion in different sectors to ambient PM2. 5, we developed an emission inventory for the year 2013 using up-to-date information on energy consumption and emission controls, and we conducted standard and sensitivity simulations using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. According to the simulation, coal combustion contributes 22 µg m−3 (40 %) to the total PM2. 5 concentration at national level (averaged in 74 major cities) and up to 37 µg m−3 (50 %) in the Sichuan Basin. Among major coal-burning sectors, industrial coal burning is the dominant contributor, with a national average contribution of 10 µg m−3 (17 %), followed by coal combustion in power plants and the domestic sector. The national average contribution due to coal combustion is estimated to be 18 µg m−3 (46 %) in summer and 28 µg m−3 (35 %) in winter. While the contribution of domestic coal burning shows an obvious reduction from winter to summer, contributions of coal combustion in power plants and the industrial sector remain at relatively constant levels throughout the year.