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"Fosse, Ethan"
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The cultural matrix : understanding Black youth
The Cultural Matrix seeks to unravel a uniquely American paradox: the socioeconomic crisis, segregation, and social isolation of disadvantaged black youth, on the one hand, and their extraordinary integration and prominence in popular culture on the other. Despite school dropout rates over 40 percent, a third spending time in prison, chronic unemployment, and endemic violence, black youth are among the most vibrant creators of popular culture in the world. They also espouse several deeply-held American values. To understand this conundrum, the authors bring culture back to the forefront of explanation, while avoiding the theoretical errors of earlier culture-of-poverty approaches and the causal timidity and special pleading of more recent ones. There is no single black youth culture, but a complex matrix of cultures--adapted mainstream, African-American vernacular, street culture, and hip-hop--that support and undermine, enrich and impoverish young lives. Hip-hop, for example, has had an enormous influence, not always to the advantage of its creators. However, its muscular message of primal honor and sensual indulgence is not motivated by a desire for separatism but by an insistence on sharing in the mainstream culture of consumption, power, and wealth. This interdisciplinary work draws on all the social sciences, as well as social philosophy and ethnomusicology, in a concerted effort to explain how culture, interacting with structural and environmental forces, influences the performance and control of violence, aesthetic productions, educational and work outcomes, familial, gender, and sexual relations, and the complex moral life of black youth.
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Dissecting the Lexis Table: Summarizing Population-Level Temporal Variability with Age–Period–Cohort Data
Since Norman Ryder's (1965) classic essay on cohort analysis was published more than a half century ago, scores of researchers have attempted to uncover the separate effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on a wide range of outcomes. However, rather than disentangling period effects from those attributable to age or cohort, Ryder's approach is based on distinguishing intra-cohort trends (or life-cycle change) from inter-cohort trends (or social change), which, together, constitute comparative cohort careers. Following Ryder's insights, in this article I show how to formally summarize population-level temporal variability on the Lexis table. In doing so, I present a number of parametric expressions representing intra- and inter-cohort trends, intra-period differences, and Ryderian comparative cohort careers. To aid the interpretation of results, I additionally introduce a suite of novel visualizations of these model-based summaries, including 2D and 3D Lexis heat maps. Crucially, the Ryderian approach developed in this article is fully identified, complementing (but not replacing) conventional approaches that rely on theoretical assumptions to parse out unique APC effects from unidentified models. This has the potential to provide a common base of knowledge in a literature often fraught with controversy. To illustrate, I analyze trends in social trust in the U.S. General Social Survey from 1972 to 2018.
Journal Article
Visualizing Social Change with Ryder Plots: The Rise and Fall of Verbal Ability in the United States
Sociologists and demographers often use Lexis diagrams to visualize temporal data. However, the traditional Lexis plot arranges the data in a matrix of right triangles, with age on the vertical axis and period on the horizontal axis. This representation of the data subordinates cohort to an off-diagonal of unequal length. Not only does this violate the proportionality principle of effective statistical graphics, but it implicitly treats cohort as a residual or epiphenomenal dimension and makes it difficult to compare variation within and across cohorts. As an alternative, the author introduces the Ryder plot, a novel graphical tool that displays cohort, age, and period data as a grid of equilateral triangles, thereby providing an unbiased representation of all three dimensions and facilitating the analysis of intra- and intercohort variability. The author uses Ryder plots to chart the rise and fall of verbal ability in the United States, revealing two epochs of social change across three centuries of cohorts.
Journal Article
Visualizing Ryderian Comparative Cohort Careers: Trends in Tolerance for Homosexuality, 1886 to 2001
Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in using population-level data to understand the nature and extent of life-cycle and social change. Examining tolerance for homosexuality using data on more than 116 cohorts born across three centuries in the United States, the author presents a novel visualization of Ryderian comparative cohort careers that parsimoniously summarizes intra- and intercohort trends, or life-cycle and social change. Results indicate dramatically rising levels of tolerance within and across cohorts, with the greatest amount of progress occurring among successive cohorts born before the middle of the twentieth century.
Journal Article
Analyzing Age-Period-Cohort Data: A Review and Critique
Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has a long, controversial history in sociology and related fields. Despite the existence of hundreds, if not thousands, of articles and dozens of books, there is little agreement on how to adequately analyze APC data. This article begins with a brief overview of APC analysis, discussing how one can interpret APC effects in a causal way. Next, we review methods that obtain point identification of APC effects, such as the equality constraints model, Moore-Penrose estimators, and multilevel models. We then outline techniques that entail point identification using measured causes, such as the proxy variables approach and mechanism-based models. Next, we discuss a general framework for APC analysis grounded in partial identification using bounds and sensitivity analyses. We conclude by outlining a general step-by-step procedure for conducting APC analyses, presenting an empirical example examining temporal shifts in verbal ability.
Journal Article
Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Effects
For more than a century, researchers from a wide range of disciplines have sought to estimate the unique contributions of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on a variety of outcomes. A key obstacle to these efforts is the linear dependence among the three time scales. Various methods have been proposed to address this issue, but they have suffered from either ad hoc assumptions or extreme sensitivity to small differences in model specification. After briefly reviewing past work, we outline a new approach for identifying temporal effects in population-level data. Fundamental to our framework is the recognition that it is only the slopes of an APC model that are unidentified, not the nonlinearities or particular combinations of the linear effects. One can thus use constraints implied by the data along with explicit theoretical claims to bound one or more of the APC effects. Bounds on these parameters may be nearly as informative as point estimates, even with relatively weak assumptions. To demonstrate the usefulness of our approach, we examine temporal effects in prostate cancer incidence and homicide rates. We conclude with a discussion of guidelines for further research on APC effects.
Journal Article
stability and change in americans’ perception of freedom
Any American will tell you, this nation’s highest ideal is freedom. Survey data teases out how race, income, and political affiliation inflect individuals’ sense of lilberty.
Journal Article
Cross-Group Differences in Age, Period, and Cohort Effects: A Bounding Approach to the Gender Wage Gap
For decades, researchers have sought to understand the separate contributions of age, period, and cohort (APC) on a wide range of outcomes. However, a major challenge in these efforts is the linear dependence among the three time scales. Previous methods have been plagued by either arbitrary assumptions or extreme sensitivity to small variations in model specification. In this article, we present an alternative method that achieves partial identification by leveraging additional information about subpopulations (or strata) such as race, gender, and social class. Our first goal is to introduce the cross-strata linearized APC (CSL-APC) model, a re-parameterization of the traditional APC model that focuses on cross-group variations in effects instead of overall effects. Similar to the traditional model, the linear cross-strata APC effects are not identified. The second goal is to show how Fosse and Winship's (2019) bounding approach can be used to address the identification problem of the CSL-APC model, allowing one to partially identify cross-group differences in effects. This approach often involves weaker assumptions than previously used techniques and, in some cases, can lead to highly informative bounds. To illustrate our method, we examine differences in temporal effects on wages between men and women in the United States.
Journal Article
Moore–Penrose Estimators of Age–Period–Cohort Effects: Their Interrelationship and Properties
The intrinsic estimator (IE) has become a widely used tool for the analysis of age–period–cohort (APC) data in sociology, demography, and other fields. However, it has been recently recognized that the IE is a subtype of a larger class of estimators based on the Moore–Penrose generalized inverse (MP estimators) and that different estimators can lead to radically divergent estimates of the true, unknown APC effects. To clarify the differences and similarities of MP estimators, we introduce a canonical form of the linear constraints imposed on the true temporal effects. Using this canonical form, we compare the IE to related MP estimators, examining the conditions under which they recover the true temporal effects, the impact of the size and sign of nonlinearities on the estimated linear effects, and their sensitivity to the number of age, period, and cohort categories. We show that two MP estimators, which we call the difference estimator (DE) and the orthogonal estimator (OE), impose constraints that are both less sensitive and easier to interpret than those of the IE. We conclude with practical guidelines for researchers interested in using MP estimators to estimate temporal effects.
Journal Article
Why are professors liberal?
The political liberalism of professors—an important occupational group and anomaly according to traditional theories of class politics—has long puzzled sociologists. This article sheds new light on the subject by employing a two-step analytic procedure. In the first step, we assess the explanatory power of the main hypotheses proposed over the last half century to account for professors' liberal views. To do so, we examine hypothesized predictors of the political gap between professors and other Americans using General Social Survey data pooled from 1974—2008. Results indicate that professors are more liberal than other Americans because a higher proportion possess advanced educational credentials, exhibit a disparity between their levels of education and income, identify as Jewish, non-religious, or non-theologically conservative Protestant, and express greater tolerance for controversial ideas. In the second step of our article, we develop a new theory of professors' politics on the basis of these findings (though not directly testable with our data) that we think holds more explanatory promise than existing approaches and that sets an agenda for future research.
Journal Article