Explore the vast range of titles available.

Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate‐driven modeling of the global land‐atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ‐SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land‐atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX‐modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux‐ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process‐based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle. Key Points We can model global fire patterns, based mainly on climate We can model year‐to‐year variations in CO2 uptake by the land Variation in global total fire depends on climate in complex ways

Natural methane (CH4) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N), naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long-term decline of the atmospheric CH4 growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH4 yr−1 over 2005–2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration during recent years.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree-grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13 C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure - a response to aridity - in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13 C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13 C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13 C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3 /C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13 C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13 Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree-grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the \"woody thickening\" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995) and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions) and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

A simple process‐based model for the consumption of atmospheric hydrogen (H2) has been developed. The model includes a description of diffusion and biological processes which together control H2flux into the soil. The model was incorporated into the LPJ‐WHyMe Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to simulate H2 fluxes over the 1988–2006 period. The model results have been confronted with field and laboratory measurements. The model reproduces observed seasonal cycles of H2 uptake at different sites and shows a realistic sensitivity to changes in soil temperature and soil water content in comparisons with field and laboratory measurements. A recent study, based on 3D atmospheric model inversion, found an increase of the global H2 sink from soils, with a trend of −0.77 Tg a−2 for the 1992–2004 period (fluxes are negative as soils act as a sink for atmospheric H2). For the same period, however, our process‐based model calculates a trend of only −0.04 Tg a−2. Even when forced with drastic changes in soil water content, soil temperature and snow cover depth, our model is unable to reproduce the trend found in the inversion‐based study, questioning the realism of such a large trend. Key Points A simple process‐based model for H2 soil uptake is described The model reproduces observed seasonal cycles of H2 uptake at different sites The model is unable to reproduce the trend found in an inversion‐based study

Isoprene is important in atmospheric chemistry, but its seasonal emission pattern – especially in the tropics, where most isoprene is emitted – is incompletely understood. We set out to discover generalized relationships applicable across many biomes between large-scale isoprene emission and a series of potential predictor variables, including both observed and model-estimated variables related to gross primary production (GPP) and canopy temperature. We used remotely sensed atmospheric concentrations of formaldehyde, an intermediate oxidation product of isoprene, as a proxy for isoprene emission in 22 regions selected to span high to low latitudes, to sample major biomes, and to minimize interference from pyrogenic sources of volatile organic compounds that could interfere with the isoprene signal. Formaldehyde concentrations showed the highest average seasonal correlations with remotely sensed (r = 0.85) and model-estimated (r = 0.80) canopy temperatures. Both variables predicted formaldehyde concentrations better than air temperature (r= 0.56) and a \"reference\" isoprene model that combines GPP and an exponential function of temperature (r = 0.49), and far better than either remotely sensed green vegetation cover, fPAR (r = 0.25) or model-estimated GPP (r = 0.14). Gross primary production in tropical regions was anti-correlated with formaldehyde concentration (r = −0.30), which peaks during the dry season. Our results were most reliable in the tropics, where formaldehyde observational errors were the least. The tropics are of particular interest because they are the greatest source of isoprene emission as well as the region where previous modelling attempts have been least successful. We conjecture that positive correlations of isoprene emission with GPP and air temperature (as found in temperate forests) may arise simply because both covary with canopy temperature, peaking during the relatively short growing season. The lack of a general correlation between GPP and formaldehyde concentration in the seasonal cycle is consistent with experimental evidence that isoprene emission rates are largely decoupled from photosynthetic rates, and with the likely adaptive significance of isoprene emission in protecting leaves against heat damage and oxidative stress.

Tropical montane cloud forests are unique among terrestrial ecosystems in that they are strongly linked to regular cycles of cloud formation. We have explored changes in atmospheric parameters from global climate model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum and for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO 2 ) conditions which are associated with the height of this cloud formation, and hence the occurrence of intact cloud forests. These parameters include vertical profiles of absolute and relative humidity surfaces, as well as the warmth index 1 , an empirical proxy of forest type. For the glacial simulations, the warmth index and absolute humidity suggest a downslope shift of cloud forests that agrees with the available palaeodata. For the 2× CO 2 scenario, the relative humidity surface is shifted upwards by hundreds of metres during the winter dry season when these forests typically rely most on the moisture from cloud contact. At the same time, an increase in the warmth index implies increased evapo-transpiration. This combination of reduced cloud contact and increased evapo-transpiration could have serious conservation implications, given that these ecosystems typically harbour a high proportion of endemic species and are often situated on mountain tops or ridge lines.

The clinical presentation which is almost identical to the cases described by Allen et al, together with the response to cessation of smoking cannabis, supports the view that our patient was suffering from cannabinoid hyperemesis and that this condition is international.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether azathioprine can prevent relapse in ulcerative colitis. DESIGN--One year placebo controlled double blind trial of withdrawal or continuation of azathioprine. SETTING--Outpatient clinics of five hospitals. SUBJECTS--79 patients with ulcerative colitis who had been taking azathioprine for six months or more. Patients in full remission for two months or more (67), and patients with chronic low grade or corticosteroid dependent disease (12) were randomised separately. 33 patients in remission received azathioprine and 34 placebo; five patients with chronic stable disease received azathioprine and seven placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Rate of relapse. Relapse was defined as worsening of symptoms or sigmoidoscopic appearance. RESULTS--For the remission group the one year rate of relapse was 36% (12/33) for patients continuing azathioprine and 59% (20/34) for those taking placebo (hazard rate ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.25 to 1.0). For the subgroup of 54 patients in long term remission (greater than six months before entry to trial) benefit was still evident, with a 31% (8/26) rate of relapse with azathioprine and 61% (17/28) with placebo (p less than 0.01). For the small group of patients with chronic stable colitis (six were corticosteroid dependent and six had low grade symptoms) no benefit was found from continued azathioprine therapy. Adverse events were minimal. CONCLUSIONS--Azathioprine maintenance treatment in ulcerative colitis is beneficial for at least two years if patients have achieved remission while taking the drug. Demonstration of the relapse preventing properties of azathioprine has implications for a large number of patients with troublesome ulcerative colitis, who may benefit from treatment with azathioprine.

A Department of Energy (DOE) multilaboratory Water Cycle Pilot Study (WCPS) investigated components of the local water budget at the Walnut River watershed in Kansas to study the relative importance of various processes and to determine the feasibility of observational water budget closure. An extensive database of local meteorological time series and land surface characteristics was compiled. Numerical simulations of water budget components were generated and, to the extent possible, validated for three nested domains within the Southern Great Plains—the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud Atmospheric Radiation Testbed (CART), the Walnut River watershed (WRW), and the Whitewater watershed (WW), in Kansas. A 2-month intensive observation period (IOP) was conducted to gather extensive observations relevant to specific details of the water budget, including finescale precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture measurements that were not made routinely by other programs. Event and seasonal water isotope (d18O, dD) sampling in rainwater, streams, soils, lakes, and wells provided a means of tracing sources and sinks within and external to the WW, WRW, and the ARM CART domains. The WCPS measured changes in the leaf area index for several vegetation types, deep groundwater variations at two wells, and meteorological variables at a number of sites in the WRW. Additional activities of the WCPS include code development toward a regional climate model that includes water isotope processes, soil moisture transect measurements, and water-level measurements in groundwater wells.