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"Fowlkes, Ashley L."
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Assessing Google Flu Trends Performance in the United States during the 2009 Influenza Virus A (H1N1) Pandemic
by
Mohebbi, Matthew H.
,
Cook, Samantha
,
Fowlkes, Ashley L.
in
Analysis
,
Complications
,
Correlation
2011
Google Flu Trends (GFT) uses anonymized, aggregated internet search activity to provide near-real time estimates of influenza activity. GFT estimates have shown a strong correlation with official influenza surveillance data. The 2009 influenza virus A (H1N1) pandemic [pH1N1] provided the first opportunity to evaluate GFT during a non-seasonal influenza outbreak. In September 2009, an updated United States GFT model was developed using data from the beginning of pH1N1.
We evaluated the accuracy of each U.S. GFT model by comparing weekly estimates of ILI (influenza-like illness) activity with the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). For each GFT model we calculated the correlation and RMSE (root mean square error) between model estimates and ILINet for four time periods: pre-H1N1, Summer H1N1, Winter H1N1, and H1N1 overall (Mar 2009-Dec 2009). We also compared the number of queries, query volume, and types of queries (e.g., influenza symptoms, influenza complications) in each model. Both models' estimates were highly correlated with ILINet pre-H1N1 and over the entire surveillance period, although the original model underestimated the magnitude of ILI activity during pH1N1. The updated model was more correlated with ILINet than the original model during Summer H1N1 (r = 0.95 and 0.29, respectively). The updated model included more search query terms than the original model, with more queries directly related to influenza infection, whereas the original model contained more queries related to influenza complications.
Internet search behavior changed during pH1N1, particularly in the categories \"influenza complications\" and \"term for influenza.\" The complications associated with pH1N1, the fact that pH1N1 began in the summer rather than winter, and changes in health-seeking behavior each may have played a part. Both GFT models performed well prior to and during pH1N1, although the updated model performed better during pH1N1, especially during the summer months.
Journal Article
Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States: A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends
2011
Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections.
Influenza activity data from 2003-04 through 2007-08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003-04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90).
This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003-04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior.
Journal Article
COVID-19 vaccine perceptions and uptake in a national prospective cohort of essential workers
by
Mayo Lamberte, Julie
,
Groom, Holly
,
Phillips, Andrew
in
Allergy and Immunology
,
Attitudes
,
Border patrol
2022
In a multi-center prospective cohort of essential workers, we assessed knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) by vaccine intention, prior SARS-CoV-2 positivity, and occupation, and their impact on vaccine uptake over time.
Initiated in July 2020, the HEROES-RECOVER cohort provided socio-demographics and COVID-19 vaccination data. Using two follow-up surveys approximately three months apart, COVID-19 vaccine KAP, intention, and receipt was collected; the first survey categorized participants as reluctant, reachable, or endorser.
A total of 4,803 participants were included in the analysis. Most (70%) were vaccine endorsers, 16% were reachable, and 14% were reluctant. By May 2021, 77% had received at least one vaccine dose. KAP responses strongly predicted vaccine uptake, particularly positive attitudes about safety (aOR = 5.46, 95% CI: 1.4–20.8) and effectiveness (aOR = 5.0, 95% CI: 1.3–19.1). Participants’ with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection were 22% less likely to believe the COVID-19 vaccine was effective compared with uninfected participants (aOR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.96). This was even more pronounced in first responders compared with other occupations, with first responders 42% less likely to believe in COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (aOR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.40–0.84). Between administrations of the two surveys, 25% of reluctant, 56% reachable, and 83% of endorser groups received the COVID-19 vaccine. The reachable group had large increases in positive responses for questions about vaccine safety (10% of vaccinated, 34% of unvaccinated), and vaccine effectiveness (12% of vaccinated, 27% of unvaccinated).
Our study demonstrates attitudes associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake and a positive shift in attitudes over time. First responders, despite potential high exposure to SARS-CoV-2, and participants with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection were more vaccine reluctant.
Perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine can shift over time. Targeting messages about the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness in reducing SARS-CoV-2 virus infection and illness severity may increase vaccine uptake for reluctant and reachable participants.
Journal Article
Detection of influenza C viruses among outpatients and patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infection, Minnesota, 2013-2016
2017
Existing literature suggests that influenza C typically causes mild respiratory tract disease. However, clinical and epidemiological data are limited.
Four outpatient clinics and 3 hospitals submitted clinical data and respiratory specimens through a surveillance network for acute respiratory infection (ARI) from May 2013 through December 2016. Specimens were tested using multitarget nucleic acid amplification for 19-22 respiratory pathogens, including influenza C.
Influenza C virus was detected among 59 of 10 202 (0.58%) hospitalized severe ARI cases and 11 of 2282 (0.48%) outpatients. Most detections occurred from December to March, 73% during the 2014-2015 season. Influenza C detections occurred among patients of all ages, with rates being similar between inpatients and outpatients. The highest rate of detection occurred among children aged 6-24 months (1.2%). Among hospitalized cases, 7 required intensive care. Medical comorbidities were reported in 58% of hospitalized cases and all who required intensive care. At least 1 other respiratory pathogen was detected in 40 (66%) cases, most commonly rhinovirus/enterovirus (25%) and respiratory syncytial virus (20%). The hemagglutinin-esterase-fusion gene was sequenced in 37 specimens, and both C/Kanagawa and C/Sao Paulo lineages were detected in inpatients and outpatients.
We found seasonal circulation of influenza C with year-to-year variability. Detection was most frequent among young children but occurred in all ages. Some cases that were positive for influenza C, particularly those with comorbid conditions, had severe disease, suggesting a need for further study of the role of influenza C virus in the pathogenesis of respiratory disease.
Journal Article
Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014–2016
by
Nghia, Ngu Duy
,
Trang, Nguyen Thi Huyen
,
Ha, Nga Thu
in
At risk populations
,
burden
,
Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014–2016
2021
Influenza burden estimates are essential to informing prevention and control policies. To complement recent influenza vaccine production capacity in Vietnam, we used acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalization data, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance data, and provincial population data from 4 provinces representing Vietnam’s major regions during 2014–2016 to calculate provincial and national influenza-associated ARI and SARI hospitalization rates. We determined the proportion of ARI admissions meeting the World Health Organization SARI case definition through medical record review. The mean influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 218 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 197–238) for ARI and 134 (95% UI 119–149) for SARI. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were highest among children <5 years of age (1,123; 95% UI 946–1,301) and adults >65 years of age (207; 95% UI 186–227), underscoring the need for prevention and control measures, such as vaccination, in these at-risk populations.
Journal Article
Enterovirus-Associated Encephalitis in the California Encephalitis Project, 1998–2005
by
Honarmand, Somayeh
,
Fowlkes, Ashley L.
,
Khetsuriani, Nino
in
Adolescent
,
Adult
,
Arboviral encephalitis
2008
Background. Encephalitis is a relatively rare presentation of enterovirus (EV) infections. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of EV encephalitis (EVE) have not been well characterized. Methods. Patients with encephalitis enrolled in the California Encephalitis Project from 1998 to 2005 were tested for a range of pathogens, including EV, using a standardized diagnostic algorithm. EVE was categorized as “confirmed” (EV detected in cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] or brain tissue) or “possible” (EV found in respiratory or fecal specimens or serum EV immunoglobulin [Ig] M detected). We compared clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of EVE with those of other infectious encephalitis cases. Results. EVE was diagnosed in 73 (4.6%) of 1571 patients (45 confirmed cases, 28 possible cases); 11.1% of cases had other infectious causes. Patients with confirmed EVE were younger, although 27% were adults, who presented with significantly less severe symptoms. Serotypes identified in EVE cases correlated with the predominant serotype for the given year reported to the National Enterovirus Surveillance System at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Two of 4 fatal EVE cases were associated with EV71. Conclusion. EVs are an important cause of encephalitis cases requiring hospitalization, in both children and adults. Our data suggest that EVE severity varies by serotype, confirm the importance of CSF/brain tissue polymerase chain reaction, and demonstrate that serum IgM findings are of little value in diagnosing EVE.
Journal Article
Transmission of Human Herpesvirus 8 by Blood Transfusion
by
Amin, Minal M
,
Hladik, Wolfgang
,
Downing, Robert
in
Adult
,
Antibodies, Viral - blood
,
Biological and medical sciences
2006
Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is the cause of Kaposi's sarcoma, the most frequent AIDS-associated cancer. In this study of recipients of blood transfusions in Uganda, receipt of an HHV-8–seropositive blood product, as compared with a seronegative blood product, was associated with a 2.8% excess risk of seroconversion to HHV-8.
In this study of recipients of blood transfusions in Uganda, receipt of an HHV-8–seropositive blood product, as compared with a seronegative blood product, was associated with a 2.8% excess risk of seroconversion to HHV-8.
Kaposi's sarcoma is the most common cancer associated with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) worldwide, and human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), also known as Kaposi's sarcoma–associated herpesvirus, was identified a decade ago as the causative agent of Kaposi's sarcoma.
1
The burden of Kaposi's sarcoma in Africa is high; in Uganda, Kaposi's sarcoma accounts for half of all reported cancers.
2
In industrialized countries, the seroprevalence of HHV-8 is relatively low (2 to 8%),
3
whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, the seroprevalence of HHV-8 can exceed 50%. The modes of transmission of HHV-8 in Africa remain poorly understood. Studies indicate that the seroprevalence increases throughout . . .
Journal Article
Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Programs in the Americas: A Platform for Sustainable Life-Course Immunization and Its Role for Pandemic Preparedness and Response
2024
Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective measures to prevent influenza illness and its complications. Since the 1980s, countries and territories in the Americas have progressively implemented influenza vaccination operations in high-risk priority groups—such as older adults, pregnant persons, persons with comorbidities and health workers. Methods: In this review, we present the history and progress of the seasonal influenza program in the Americas, how the program contributed to the efficient and timely roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic, and how the program can be used to promote immunization operations across the life span for existing and future vaccines. Results: The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2023 underscored the importance of having a robust seasonal influenza vaccination program for pandemic preparedness and response. Overall, countries with existing seasonal influenza vaccination programs were better prepared and rolled out the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines more quickly and effectively compared to other countries where the influenza vaccination platform was weak or non-existent. Conclusions: Traditionally, national immunization programs of developing countries have been predominately focused on newborns, children younger than five years and school-aged children while often limiting their investment in effective adult vaccination programs; these programs are typically isolated to high-income countries. Countries in Latin America have been the exception, with strong influenza vaccination programs for adults regardless of national income level. The presence of functional and effective adult influenza vaccination programs can also facilitate the acceptance and uptake of other adult vaccines targeting priority groups at higher risk for severe illness or complications.
Journal Article
Increased Activity of Coxsackievirus B1 Strains Associated with Severe Disease among Young Infants in the United States, 2007—2008
by
Khetsuriani, Nino
,
Fowlkes, Ashley L.
,
Wikswo, Mary E.
in
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
,
Cluster Analysis
,
Coxsackievirus
2009
Background.Enterovirus infections are very common and typically cause mild illness, although neonates are at higher risk for severe illness. In 2007, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received multiple reports of severe neonatal illness and death associated with coxsackievirus B1 (CVB1), a less common enterovirus serotype not previously associated with death in surveillance reports to the CDC. Methods.This report includes clinical, epidemiologic, and virologic data from cases of severe neonatal illness associated with CVB1 reported during the period from 2007 through 2008 to the National Enterovirus Surveillance System (NESS), a voluntary, passive surveillance system. Also included are data on additional cases reported to the CDC outside of the NESS. Virus isolates or original specimens obtained from patients from 25 states were referred to the CDC picornavirus laboratory for molecular typing or characterization. Results.During 2007–2008, the NESS received 1079 reports of enterovirus infection. CVB1 accounted for 176 (23%) of 775 reported cases with known serotype, making it the most commonly reported serotype for the first time ever in the NESS. Six neonatal deaths due to CVB1 infection were also reported to the CDC during that time. Phylogenetic analysis of the 2007 and 2008 CVB1 strains indicated that the increase in cases resulted from widespread circulation of a single genetic lineage that had been present in the United States since at least 2001. Conclusions.Healthcare providers and public health departments should be vigilant to the possibility of continuing CVB1-associated neonatal illness, and testing and continued reporting of enterovirus infections should be encouraged.
Journal Article
Protection with a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Frontline Workers
by
Burgess, Jefferey L.
,
Respet, Karley
,
Sokol, Brian
in
Ambulatory care
,
Antibodies, Neutralizing
,
Antibodies, Viral
2022
Protection from Covid-19 after Third Vaccine DoseIn a cohort of frontline health care workers, a third dose of an mRNA vaccine provided 91% protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the delta variant and 60% against the omicron variant.
Journal Article