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Missing data in clinical trials can have a major effect on the validity of the inferences that can be drawn from the trial. This article reviews methods for preventing missing data and, failing that, dealing with data that are missing. Background Missing data have seriously compromised inferences from clinical trials, yet the topic has received little attention in the clinical-trial community. 1 Existing regulatory guidances 2 – 4 on the design, conduct, and analysis of clinical trials have little specific advice on how to address the problem of missing data. A recent National Research Council (NRC) report 5 on the topic seeks to address this gap, and this article summarizes some of the main findings and recommendations of that report. The authors of this article served on the panel that prepared the report. Missing data have seriously compromised inferences from clinical trials. 1 For example, . . .

The increased use of explosives in recent wars has increased the number of veterans with blast injuries. Of particular interest is blast injury to the brain, and a key question is whether the primary overpressure wave of the blast is injurious or whether brain injury from blast is mostly due to secondary and tertiary effects. Using a shock tube generating shock waves comparable to open-field blast waves, we explored the effects of blast on parenchymatous organs of mice with emphasis on the brain. The main injuries in nonbrain organs were hemorrhages in the lung interstitium and alveolar spaces and hemorrhagic infarcts in liver, spleen, and kidney. Neuropathological and behavioral outcomes of blast were studied at mild blast intensity, that is, 68 ± 8 kPag (9.9 ±1.2 psig) static pressure, 103 kPag (14.9 psig) total pressure and 183 ± 14 kPag (26.5 ± 2.1 psig) membrane rupturepressure. Under these conditions, weobserved multifocal axonal injury, primarily in the cerebellum/brainstem, the corticospinal system, and the optic tract. We also found prolonged behavioral and motor abnormalities, including deficits in social recognition and spatial memory and in motor coordination. Shielding of the torso ameliorated axonal injury and behavioral deficits. These findings indicate that long CNS axon tracts are particularly vulnerable to the effects of blast, even at mild intensities that match the exposure of most veterans in recent wars. Prevention of some of these neurological effects by torso shielding may generate new ideas as to how to protect military and civilian populations in blast scenarios.

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable under each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate, such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance, and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to formulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

RCTs should continue like a rhythm in a musical piece to serve as a model of rigor. And observational studies should continue like melodies to be free to explore and make conjectures about generalizations or explanations, to be further subject to testing by experimentation. And as with the whole of a musical piece, complete knowledge of clinical effects needs to draw on both experimental and observational information.

Purpose Cryoablation of renal tumors is assumed to have a higher risk of hemorrhagic complications compared to other ablative modalities. Our purpose was to establish the exact risk and to identify hemorrhagic risk factors. Materials and Methods This IRB approved, 7-year prospective study included 261 renal cryoablations. Procedures were under conscious sedation and CT guidance. Pre- and postablation CT was obtained, and hemorrhagic complications were CTCAE tabulated. Age, gender, tumor size, histology, and probes number were tested based on averages or proportions using their exact permutation distribution. “High-risk” subgroups (those exceeding the thresholds of all variables) were tested for each variable alone, and for all combinations of variable threshold values. We compared the subgroup with the best PPV using one variable, with the subgroup with the best PPV using all variables (McNemmar test). Results The hemorrhagic complication rate was 3.5 %. Four patients required transfusions, two required emergent angiograms, one required both a transfusion and angiogram, and two required bladder irrigation for outlet obstruction. Perirenal space hemorrhage was more clinically significant than elsewhere. Univariate risks were tumor size >2 cm, number of probes >2, and malignant histology ( P  = 0.005, 0.002, and 0.033, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that patients >55 years with malignant tumors >2 cm requiring 2 or more probes yielded the highest PPV (7.5 %). Conclusions Although older patients (>55 years old) with larger (>2 cm), malignant tumors have an increased risk of hemorrhagic complications, the low PPV does not support the routine use of embolization. Percutaneous cryoablation has a 3.5 % risk of significant hemorrhage, similar to that reported for other types of renal ablative modalities.

White matter pathology is common across a wide spectrum of neurological diseases. Characterizing this pathology is important for both a mechanistic understanding of neurological diseases as well as for the development of neuroimaging biomarkers. Although axonal calibers can vary by orders of magnitude, they are tightly regulated and related to neuronal function, and changes in axon calibers have been reported in several diseases and their models. In this study, we utilize the impact acceleration model of traumatic brain injury (IA-TBI) to assess early and late changes in the axon diameter distribution (ADD) of the mouse corticospinal tract using Airyscan and electron microscopy. We find that axon calibers follow a lognormal distribution whose parameters significantly change after injury. While IA-TBI leads to 30% loss of corticospinal axons by day 7 with a bias for larger axons, at 21 days after injury we find a significant redistribution of axon frequencies that is driven by a reduction in large-caliber axons in the absence of detectable degeneration. We postulate that changes in ADD features may reflect a functional adaptation of injured neural systems. Moreover, we find that ADD features offer an accurate way to discriminate between injured and non-injured mice. Exploring injury-related ADD signatures by histology or new emerging neuroimaging modalities may offer a more nuanced and comprehensive way to characterize white matter pathology and may also have the potential to generate novel biomarkers of injury.

Researchers often seek robust inference for a parameter through semiparametric estimation. Efficient semiparametric estimation currently requires theoretical derivation of the efficient influence function (EIF), which can be a challenging and time‐consuming task. If this task can be computerized, it can save dramatic human effort, which can be transferred, for example, to the design of new studies. Although the EIF is, in principle, a derivative, simple numerical differentiation to calculate the EIF by a computer masks the EIF's functional dependence on the parameter of interest. For this reason, the standard approach to obtaining the EIF relies on the theoretical construction of the space of scores under all possible parametric submodels. This process currently depends on the correctness of conjectures about these spaces, and the correct verification of such conjectures. The correct guessing of such conjectures, though successful in some problems, is a nondeductive process, i.e., is not guaranteed to succeed (e.g., is not computerizable), and the verification of conjectures is generally susceptible to mistakes. We propose a method that can deductively produce semiparametric locally efficient estimators. The proposed method is computerizable, meaning that it does not need either conjecturing, or otherwise theoretically deriving the functional form of the EIF, and is guaranteed to produce the desired estimates even for complex parameters. The method is demonstrated through an example.

Depression is common in Alzheimer disease (AD), and antidepressants are commonly used for its treatment, however, evidence for antidepressant efficacy in this population is lacking. The authors conducted a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial titled “Depression in Alzheimer's Disease-2” to assess the efficacy and tolerability of sertraline for depression in AD. One hundred thirty-one participants from five U.S. medical centers with mild-to-moderate AD (Mini-Mental State Examination scores 10-26) and depression of AD were randomized to double-blinded treatment with sertraline (N = 67) or placebo (N = 64), with a target dosage of 100 mg daily. Efficacy was assessed using logistic regressions and mixed effects models in an intention-to-treat analysis with imputation of missing data. Principal outcome measures were modified Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study-Clinical Global Impression of Change (mADCS-CGIC), change in Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) scores, and remission defined by both mADCS-CGIC score ≤2 and CSDD score ≤6. mADCS-CGIC ratings (odd ratio [OR = 1.01], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-1.97, p = 0.98), CSDD scores (median difference at 12 weeks 1.2, 95% CI: 1.65-4.05, p = 0.41), and remission at 12 weeks of follow-up (OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 0.84-5.04, p = 0.11) did not differ between sertraline (N = 67) and placebo (N = 64). Sertraline-treated patients experienced more adverse events, most notably gastrointestinal and respiratory, than placebo-treated patients. Sertraline did not demonstrate efficacy for the treatment depression symptoms in patients with AD. In addition, its use was associated with an increased incidence of adverse events. Thus, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors may be of limited value for treating depression in patients with AD.

Primary progressive aphasia (PPA) is a neurological syndrome characterized by the gradual deterioration of language capabilities. Due to its neurodegenerative nature, PPA is marked by a continuous decline, necessitating ongoing and adaptive therapeutic interventions. Recent studies have demonstrated that behavioral therapies, particularly when combined with neuromodulation techniques such as transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), can improve treatment outcomes, including the long-term maintenance and generalization of therapeutic effects. However, there has yet to be a phase II multisite study examining the efficacy of tDCS in individuals with PPA. This paper reports the methods and analyses for the clinical trial NCT05386394. A total of 120 adults with non-fluent and logopenic variant PPA will receive a novel spoken Naming and Spelling (NaSp), individuals with semantic variant PPA will be excluded from this trial. Participants will receive NASP therapy over two periods of 3 weeks (Monday through Friday, for a total of 15 non-consecutive days) combined with anodal (a-tDCS) and sham tDCS (s-tDCS). They will be randomly allocated to receive a-tDCS either during the first or second intervention period. The study will be conducted at four sites across the United States and Canada. Outcome measures will be recorded immediately before and after each intervention period, as well as 3 months after each period. Primary outcome measures will be the change in phonemic accuracy in spoken picture naming and letter accuracy in spelling for trained nouns and verbs. Changes from the a-tDCS and s-tDCS periods will be compared to determine the efficacy of tDCS. Primary outcomes will be analyzed using statistical methods that account for repeated measures within participants (namely generalized estimating equations). A significant adjuvant effect of tDCS will be determined if differences in phonemic accuracy and/or letter accuracy immediately following a-tDCS intervention and/or at the 3-month follow-up are greater (at p < 0.05) than those of the s-tDCS intervention. This trial is the first multisite, fully powered, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled, crossover study of the effectiveness of tDCS as an adjuvant to behavioral treatment for spoken naming and spelling deficits in individuals with PPA. Specific challenges in designing the protocol are considered.