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The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. The objective of the Paris climate agreement is to limit global-average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to further pursue limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius; here, the adequacy of the national plans submitted in preparation for this agreement is assessed, and it is concluded that substantial enhancement or over-delivery on these plans is required to have a reasonable chance of achieving the Paris climate objective. Paris climate action plans assessed The principal climate goal of the Paris Agreement of December 2015 is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This Perspective assesses the national plans submitted to the Paris meeting for post-2020 action to reduce global greenhouse gas emission by 2030. It also provides projections for global mean temperature increase over the twenty-first century that would be consistent with the present national plans and discusses options that may help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels that are more consistent with maintaining a reasonable chance of meeting the well below 2 degrees Celsius climate target.

New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris. New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris.

A gap persists between the emissions reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement and those resulting from their domestic policies. We argue that this gap in fact contains two parts: one in the policies that countries adopt, and the other in the outcomes that those policies achieve.

Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reached its highest level in 2 million years last year. 2024 also marked the first single year in which global average surface temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Since its adoption in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 1.5 degrees C goal has served both as a powerful rhetorical symbol and as the basis for concrete technical benchmarks. [...]there would be a 10-year delay in recognizing and reacting to exceedance of the long-term temperature goal.” According to the IPCC, even warming of 1.5 degrees C would expose nearly 1 billion people to water stress and desertification, cost an estimated $63 billion in adaptation and residual damages to major crops, and put 14% of the world’s species at risk of extinction.

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to \"pursue efforts\" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

[...]a number of island states and other vulnerable developing countries such as Fiji, Jamaica, Kenya and Senegal also adopted more ambitious commitments. For more than a dozen additional countries, it’s not possible to quantify the effect of their new plans on their GHG emissions, often due to a lack of data in the initial NDC. [...]2030 emissions permitted under the pledges will be higher than they would have been under countries’ initial NDCs.

By October 12, 140 countries — or nearly 70% of Paris Agreement signatories, accounting for 57% of global emissions — had submitted a new or updated NDC. Recognizing that climate change poses an existential threat and that climate action goes hand-in-hand with economic development, countries like Ethiopia have engaged their entire governments to strengthen their NDCs. For the remaining 28% — which account for less than 10% of global emissions — it is not possible to compare the level of ambition in their new and updated NDCs to their prior NDCs, typically due to a lack of data in the prior NDCs. In the first round of NDCs, nearly a quarter of NDCs lacked a GHG target: 13% were based on non-GHG targets, such as increasing clean energy or reducing deforestation), while 10% contained neither GHG nor non-GHG targets.

Specifically, the paper models the effect on global temperature if -- in addition to existing pledges — developed countries set net-zero greenhouse gas emissions targets by 2050, developing countries set net-zero carbon dioxide emissions targets by 2050, and all G20 countries align their 2030 emissions-reduction targets with global, cost-effective pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. This analysis underscores how essential it is for G20 nations to step up their climate action commitments ahead of the UN climate summit (COP26) in November 2021. Russia’s updated NDC is marginally stronger than its previous one, but still allows emissions in 2030 to be higher than where they are projected to be under the country’s current policies. [...]the report notes that while many of the net-zero targets set by some G20 countries have helped lower projected temperature levels, they require very steep emissions cuts from 2030 levels to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. [...]in order to fully close the gap from 1.7 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C, we’ll need action from non-G20 countries and emissions cuts from international aviation and shipping, too. Submit NDCs that significantly deepen emissions reductions for 2030; Commit to mid-century net-zero targets and ensure their 2030 targets align with longer-term goals; and Step up public climate finance pledges (by developed countries) and mobilize private finance.

First and foremost, human-caused emissions (such as those from fossil-fueled vehicles and factories) should be reduced as close to zero as possible. [...]these potent but short-lived gases will drive temperatures higher in the near term, potentially pushing temperature change past the 1.5 degrees C threshold much earlier. Because of this, it's important for countries to specify whether their net-zero targets cover CO2 only or all GHGs. To achieve net-zero emissions, rapid transformation will be required across all global systems — from how we power our economies, to how we transport people and goods and feed a growing population. Improving the efficiency of food production, changing dietary choices, restoring degraded lands and reducing food loss and waste also have significant potential to reduce emissions.