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Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency. Cost, supply and logistics present challenges to COVID-19 vaccine rollout in low and middle income countries. Here, the authors model vaccination programmes in South Africa and demonstrate the importance of the pace of vaccine rollout, with even moderately efficacious vaccines likely to be cost-effective.

Approximately 130 000 infants acquire HIV annually despite global maternal antiretroviral therapy scale-up. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of offering long-acting, anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) prophylaxis to infants in three distinct settings. We simulated infants in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Zimbabwe using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Pediatric (CEPAC-P) model. We modeled strategies offering a three-bNAb combination in addition to WHO-recommended standard-of-care oral prophylaxis to infants: a) with known, WHO-defined high-risk HIV exposure at birth (HR-HIVE); b) with known HIV exposure at birth (HIVE); or c) with or without known HIV exposure (ALL). Modeled infants received 1-dose, 2-doses, or Extended (every 3 months through 18 months) bNAb dosing. Base case model inputs included 70% bNAb efficacy (sensitivity analysis range: 10-100%), 3-month efficacy duration/dosing interval (1-6 months), and $20/dose cost ($5-$100/dose). Outcomes included pediatric HIV infections, life expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, in US$/year-of-life-saved [YLS], assuming a ≤ 50% GDP per capita cost-effectiveness threshold). The base case model projects that bNAb strategies targeting HIVE and ALL infants would prevent 7-26% and 10-42% additional pediatric HIV infections, respectively, compared to standard-of-care alone, ranging by dosing approach. HIVE-Extended would be cost-effective (cost-saving compared to standard-of-care) in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe; ALL-Extended would be cost-effective in South Africa (ICER: $882/YLS). BNAb strategies targeting HR-HIVE infants would result in greater lifetime costs and smaller life expectancy gains than HIVE-Extended. Throughout most bNAb efficacies and costs evaluated in sensitivity analyses, targeting HIVE infants would be cost-effective in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, and targeting ALL infants would be cost-effective in South Africa. Adding long-acting bNAbs to current standard-of-care prophylaxis would be cost-effective, assuming plausible efficacies and costs. The cost-effective target population would vary by setting, largely driven by maternal antenatal HIV prevalence and postpartum incidence.

BackgroundAs widespread adoption of potent combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) reaches its tenth year, our objective was to quantify the cumulative survival benefits of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) care in the United States MethodsWe defined eras corresponding to advances in standards of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease care, including opportunistic infection prophylaxis, treatment with ART, and the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (pMTCT) of HIV. Per-person survival benefits for each era were determined using a mathematical simulation model. Published estimates provided the number of adult patients with new diagnoses of AIDS who were receiving care in the United States from 1989 to 2003 ResultsCompared with survival associated with untreated HIV disease, per-person survival increased 0.26 years with Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia prophylaxis alone. Four eras of increasingly effective ART in addition to prophylaxis resulted in per-person survival increases of 7.81, 11.05, 11.57, and 13.33 years, compared with the absence of treatment. Treatment for patients with AIDS in care in the United States since 1989 yielded a total survival benefit of 2.8 million years. pMTCT averted nearly 2900 infant infections, equivalent to 137,000 additional years of survival benefit ConclusionsAt least 3.0 million years of life have been saved in the United States as a direct result of care of patients with AIDS, highlighting the significant advances made in HIV disease treatment

To improve the effectiveness of tuberculosis (TB) control programs in the United States by identifying cost-effective priorities for screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). To estimate the cost-effectiveness of LTBI screening using the tuberculin skin test (TST)and interferon-g release assays (IGRAs). A Markov model of screening for LTBI with TST and IGRA in risk-groups considered in current LTBI screening guidelines. In all risk-groups, TST and IGRA screening resulted in increased mean life expectancy, ranging from 0.03–0.24 life-months per person screened. IGRA screening resulted in greater life expectancy gains than TST. Screening always cost more than not screening, but IGRA was cost-saving compared with TST in some groups. Four patterns of cost-effectiveness emerged, related to four risk categories. (1) Individuals at highest risk of TB reactivation (close contacts and those infected with HIV): the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of IGRA compared with TST was less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. (2) The foreign-born: IGRA was cost-saving compared with TST and cost-effective compared with no screening (ICER ,$100,000 per QALY gained). (3) Vulnerable populations (e.g., homeless, drug user, or former prisoner): the ICER of TST screening was approximately $100,000–$150,000 per QALY gained, but IGRA was not cost-effective. (4) Medical comorbidities (e.g., diabetes): the ICER of screening with TST or IGRA was greater than $100,000 per QALY. LTBI screening guidelines could make progress toward TB elimination by prioritizing screening for close contacts, those infected with HIV, and the foreign-born regardless of time living in the United States. For these groups, IGRA screening was more cost-effective than TST screening.

Despite tremendous advances in care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and increased funding for treatment, morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS in developing countries remains unacceptably high. A major contributing factor is that >800 million people remain chronically undernourished globally, and the HIV epidemic largely overlaps with populations already experiencing low diet quality and quantity. Here, we present an updated review of the relationship between HIV infection, nutritional deficiencies, and food insecurity and consider efforts to interrupt this cycle at a programmatic level. As HIV infection progresses, it causes a catabolic state and increased susceptibility to other infections, which are compounded by a lack of caloric and other nutrient intake, leading to progressive worsening of malnutrition. Despite calls from national and international organizations to integrate HIV and nutritional programs, data are lacking on how such programs can be effectively implemented in resource-poor settings, on the optimum content and duration of nutritional support, and on ideal target recipients.

The transition to PEPFAR 2.0 with its focus on country ownership was accompanied by substantial funding cuts. We describe the impact of this transition on HIV care in a large network of HIV clinics in Nigeria. We surveyed 30 comprehensive HIV treatment clinics to assess services supported before (October 2013-September 2014) and after (October 2014-September 2015) the PEPFAR funding policy change, the impact of these policy changes on service delivery areas, and response of clinics to the change. We compared differences in support for staffing, laboratory services, and clinical operations pre- and post-policy change using paired t-tests. We used framework analysis to assess answers to open ended questions describing responses to the policy change. Most sites (83%, n = 25) completed the survey. The majority were public (60%, n = 15) and secondary (68%, n = 17) facilities. Clinics had a median of 989 patients in care (IQR: 543-3326). All clinics continued to receive support for first and second line antiretrovirals and CD4 testing after the policy change, while no clinics received support for other routine drug monitoring labs. We found statistically significant reductions in support for viral load testing, staff employment, defaulter tracking, and prevention services (92% vs. 64%, p = 0.02; 80% vs. 20%, 100% vs. 44%, 84% vs. 16%, respectively, p<0.01 for all) after the policy change. Service delivery was hampered by interrupted laboratory services and reduced wages and staff positions leading to reduced provider morale, and compromised quality of care. Almost all sites (96%) introduced user fees to address funding shortages. Clinics in Nigeria are experiencing major challenges in providing routine HIV services as a result of PEPFAR's policy changes. Funding cutbacks have been associated with compromised quality of care, staff shortages, and reliance on fee-based care for historically free services. Sustainable HIV services funding models are urgently needed.

To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States. We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Compared with sex-specific heterosexually active people at average risk for HIV (HAH), the adjusted HR (95% CI) were: male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46), female ever-PWID 3.50 (2.04, 6.01), MSM 1.51 (1.00, 2.27), male HIH 1.68 (1.04, 2.06), female HIH 2.35 (1.87, 2.95), and male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46). Most people at increased risk for HIV in the US experience higher all-cause mortality than people at average risk. Strategies addressing social determinants that increase HIV risk should be incorporated into HIV prevention and other health promotion programs.

HIV counseling and testing may serve as an entry point for non-communicable disease screening. To determine the yield of newly-diagnosed HIV, tuberculosis (TB) symptoms, diabetes and hypertension, and to assess CD4 count testing, linkage to care as well as correlates of linkage and barriers to care from a mobile testing unit. A mobile unit provided screening for HIV, TB symptoms, diabetes and hypertension in Cape Town, South Africa between March 2010 and September 2011. The yield of newly-diagnosed cases of these conditions was measured and clients were followed-up between January and November 2011 to assess linkage. Linkage to care was defined as accessing care within one, three or six months post-HIV diagnosis (dependent on CD4 count) and one month post-diagnosis for other conditions. Clinical and socio-demographic correlates of linkage to care were evaluated using Poisson regression and barriers to care were determined. Of 9,806 clients screened, the yield of new diagnoses was: HIV (5.5%), TB suspects (10.1%), diabetes (0.8%) and hypertension (58.1%). Linkage to care for HIV-infected clients, TB suspects, diabetics and hypertensives was: 51.3%, 56.7%, 74.1% and 50.0%. Only disclosure of HIV-positive status to family members or partners (RR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.04-6.3, p=0.04) was independently associated with linkage to HIV care. The main barrier to care reported by all groups was lack of time to access a clinic. Screening for HIV, TB symptoms and hypertension at mobile units in South Africa has a high yield but inadequate linkage. After-hours and weekend clinics may overcome a major barrier to accessing care.