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The effect of influenza vaccination on influenza severity remains uncertain. We reviewed the literature for evidence to inform the question of whether influenza illness is less severe among individuals who received influenza vaccination compared with individuals with influenza illness who were unvaccinated prior to their illnesses. We conducted a narrative review to identify published findings comparing severity of influenza outcomes by vaccination status among community-dwelling adults and children ≥ 6 months of age with laboratory-confirmed influenza illness. When at least four effect estimates of the same type (e.g., odds ratio) were available for a specific outcome and age category (children versus adults), data were pooled with meta-analysis to generate a summary effect estimate. We identified 38 published articles reporting ≥ 1 association between influenza vaccination status and one of 21 indicators of severity of influenza illness among individuals with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Study methodologies and effect estimates were highly heterogenous, with only five severity indicators meeting criteria for calculating a combined effect. Among eight studies, influenza vaccination was associated with 26% reduction in odds of ICU admission among adults with influenza-associated hospitalization (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.58, 0.93). Among five studies of adults with influenza-associated hospitalization, vaccinated patients had 31% reduced risk of death compared with unvaccinated patients (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.92). Among four studies of children with influenza virus infection, vaccination was associated with an estimated 45% reduction in the odds of manifesting fever (OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.42, 0.71). Vaccination was not significantly associated with receiving a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia among adults hospitalized with influenza (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.82, 1.04) or with risk of hospitalization following outpatient influenza illness among adults (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.28, 1.28). Overall, our findings support the hypothesis that influenza vaccination may attenuate the course of disease among individuals with breakthrough influenza virus infection.

After recognition of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by mid- to late February 2020, indicators of influenza activity began to decline in the Northern Hemisphere. These changes were attributed to both artifactual changes related to declines in routine health seeking for respiratory illness as well as real changes in influenza virus circulation because of widespread implementation of measures to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Data from clinical laboratories in the United States indicated a 61% decrease in the number of specimens submitted (from a median of 49,696 per week during September 29, 2019-February 29, 2020, to 19,537 during March 1-May 16, 2020) and a 98% decrease in influenza activity as measured by percentage of submitted specimens testing positive (from a median of 19.34% to 0.33%). Interseasonal (i.e., summer) circulation of influenza in the United States (May 17-August 8, 2020) is currently at historical lows (median = 0.20% tests positive in 2020 versus 2.35% in 2019, 1.04% in 2018, and 2.36% in 2017). Influenza data reported to the World Health Organization's (WHO's) FluNet platform from three Southern Hemisphere countries that serve as robust sentinel sites for influenza from Oceania (Australia), South America (Chile), and Southern Africa (South Africa) showed very low influenza activity during June-August 2020, the months that constitute the typical Southern Hemisphere influenza season. In countries or jurisdictions where extensive community mitigation measures are maintained (e.g., face masks, social distancing, school closures, and teleworking), those locations might have little influenza circulation during the upcoming 2020-21 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The use of community mitigation measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, plus influenza vaccination, are likely to be effective in reducing the incidence and impact of influenza, and some of these mitigation measures could have a role in preventing influenza in future seasons. However, given the novelty of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty of continued community mitigation measures, it is important to plan for seasonal influenza circulation in the United States this fall and winter. Influenza vaccination of all persons aged ≥6 months remains the best method for influenza prevention and is especially important this season when SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus might cocirculate (1).

Recently, lower estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) virus illness among those vaccinated during the previous season or multiple seasons have been reported; however, it is unclear whether these effects are due to differences in immunogenicity. We performed hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HI) assays on serum collected at preseason, ∼30 days post-vaccination, and postseason from a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP). Eligible participants had medical and vaccination records for at least four years (since July, 2006), including 578 HCP who received 2010-11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine [IIV3, containing A/Perth/16/2009-like A(H3N2)] and 209 HCP who declined vaccination. Estimates of the percentage with high titers (≥40 and>100) and geometric mean fold change ratios (GMRs) to A/Perth/16/2009-like virus by number of prior vaccinations were adjusted for age, sex, race, education, household size, hospital care responsibilities, and study site. Post-vaccination GMRs were inversely associated with the number of prior vaccinations, increasing from 2.3 among those with 4 prior vaccinations to 6.2 among HCP with zero prior vaccinations (F[4,567]=9.97, p<.0005). Thirty-two percent of HCP with 1 prior vaccination achieved titers >100 compared to only 11% of HCP with 4 prior vaccinations (adjusted odds ratio=6.8, 95% CI=3.1 – 15.3). Our findings point to an exposure-response association between repeated IIV3 vaccination and HI for A(H3N2) and are consistent with recent VE observations. Ultimately, better vaccines and vaccine strategies may be needed in order to optimize immunogenicity and VE for HCP and other repeated vaccinees.

Severe illness due to 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) infection has been reported among persons who are obese or morbidly obese. We assessed whether obesity is a risk factor for hospitalization and death due to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), independent of chronic medical conditions considered by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to increase the risk of influenza-related complications. We used a case-cohort design to compare cases of hospitalizations and deaths from 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza occurring between April-July, 2009, with a cohort of the U.S. population estimated from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); pregnant women and children <2 years old were excluded. For hospitalizations, we defined categories of relative weight by body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)); for deaths, obesity or morbid obesity was recorded on medical charts, and death certificates. Odds ratio (OR) of being in each BMI category was determined; normal weight was the reference category. Overall, 361 hospitalizations and 233 deaths included information to determine BMI category and presence of ACIP-recognized medical conditions. Among >or=20 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being morbidly obese (BMI>or=40) for individuals with ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 2.4-9.9) and without ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.7, 95%CI 1.3-17.2). Among 2-19 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being underweight (BMIor=20 years without ACIP-recognized chronic medical conditions death was associated with obesity (OR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.5-6.6) and morbid obesity (OR = 7.6, 95%CI 2.1-27.9). Our findings support observations that morbid obesity may be associated with hospitalization and possibly death due to 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection. These complications could be prevented by early antiviral therapy and vaccination.

Background. Recent studies suggest that influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may wane over the course of an influenza season, leading to suboptimal VE during late influenza seasons. Methods. We examined the association between influenza VE and time since vaccination among patients ≥9 years old with medically attended acute respiratory illness in the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network using data pooled from the 20112012 through 2014-2015 influenza seasons. We used multivariate logistic regression with polymerse chain reaction-confirmed influenza infection as the outcome and vaccination status defined by days between vaccination and symptom onset as the predictor. Models were adjusted for calendar time and other potential confounding factors. Results. We observed decreasing VE with increasing time since vaccination for influenza A(H3N2) (P = .004), influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (P = .01), and influenza B viruses (P = .04). Maximum VE was observed shortly after vaccination, followed by a decline in VE of about 7% (absolute) per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6%-11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. VE remained greater than zero for at least 6 months for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B and at least 5 months for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Decline in VE was more pronounced among patients with prior-season influenza vaccination. A similar pattern of increasing influenza risk with increasing time since vaccination was seen in analyses limited to vaccinees. Conclusions. We observed decreasing influenza vaccine protection with increasing time since vaccination across influenza types/subtypes. This association is consistent with intraseason waning of host immunity, but bias or residual confounding could explain these findings.

We describe human rhinovirus (HRV) detections in SaKaeo province, Thailand. From September 1, 2003-August 31, 2005, we tested hospitalized patients with acute lower respiratory illness and outpatient controls without fever or respiratory symptoms for HRVs with polymerase chain reaction and molecularly-typed select HRVs. We compared HRV detection among hospitalized patients and controls and estimated enrollment adjusted incidence. HRVs were detected in 315 (16%) of 1919 hospitalized patients and 27 (9.6%) of 280 controls. Children had the highest frequency of HRV detections (hospitalized: <1 year: 29%, 1-4 year: 29%, ≥ 65 years: 9%; controls: <1 year: 24%, 1-4 year: 14%, ≥ 65 years: 2.8%). Enrollment adjusted hospitalized HRV detection rates were highest among persons aged <1 year (1038/100,000 persons/year), 1-4 years (457), and ≥ 65 years (71). All three HRV species were identified, HRV-A was the most common species in most age groups including children aged <1 year (61%) and all adult age groups. HRV-C was the most common species in the 1-4 year (51%) and 5-19 year age groups (54%). Compared to controls, hospitalized adults (≥ 19 years) and children were more likely to have HRV detections (odds ratio [OR]: 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 15.8; OR: 2.0, CI: 1.2, 3.3, respectively) and hospitalized children were more likely to have HRV-A (OR 1.7, CI: 0.8, 3.5) or HVR-C (OR 2.7, CI: 1.2, 5.9) detection. HRV rates were high among hospitalized children and the elderly but asymptomatic children also had substantial HRV detection. HRV (all species), and HRV-A and HRV-C detections were epidemiologically-associated with hospitalized illness. Treatment or prevention modalities effective against HRV could reduce hospitalizations due to HRV in Thailand.

Pneumonia is a leading cause of death in children worldwide. A simple clinical score predicting the probability of death in a young child with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) could aid clinicians in case management and provide a standardized severity measure during epidemiologic studies. We analyzed 4,148 LRTI hospitalizations in children <24 months enrolled in a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine trial in South Africa from 1998-2001, to develop the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC). Using clinical data at admission, a multivariable logistic regression model for mortality was developed and statistically evaluated using bootstrap resampling techniques. Points were assigned to risk factors based on their coefficients in the multivariable model. A child's RISC score is the sum of points for each risk factor present. Separate models were developed for HIV-infected and non-infected children. Significant risk factors for HIV-infected and non-infected children included low oxygen saturation, chest indrawing, wheezing, and refusal to feed. The models also included age and HIV clinical classification (for HIV-infected children) or weight-for-age (for non-infected children). RISC scores ranged up to 7 points for HIV-infected or 6 points for non-infected children and correlated with probability of death (0-47%, HIV-infected; 0-14%, non-infected). Final models showed good discrimination (area under the ROC curve) and calibration (goodness-of-fit). The RISC score incorporates a simple set of risk factors that accurately discriminate between young children based on their risk of death from LRTI, and may provide an objective means to quantify severity based on the risk of mortality.

Background. Circulating A/H3N2 influenza viruses drifted significantly after strain selection for the 2014-2015 vaccines. Also in 2014-2015, the Advisory committee on Immunization Practices recommended preferential use of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) over inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2-8 years. Methods. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) across age groups and vaccine types was examined among outpatients with acute respiratory illness at 5 US sites using a test-negative design, that compared the odds of vaccination among reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza positives and negatives. Results. Of 9311 enrollees with complete data, 7078 (76%) were influenza negative, 1840 (19.8%) were positive for influenza A (A/H3N2, n=1817), and 395 (4.2%) were positive for influenza B (B/Yamagata, n=340). The overall adjusted VE was 19% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10% to 27%) and was statistically significant in all age strata except those aged 18-64 years. The adjusted VE of 6% (95%CI, -5% to 17%) against A/H3N2-associated illness was not statistically significant, unlike VE for influenza B/Yamagata, which was 55% (95%CI, 43% to 65%). Among those aged 2-8 years, VE against A/H3N2 was 15% (95%CI, −16% to 38%) for IIV and -3% (CI, -50% to 29%) for LAIV; VE against B/Yamagata was 40% (95%CI, -20% to 70%) for IIV and 74% (95%CI, 25% to 91%) for LAIV. Conclusions. The 2014-2015 influenza vaccines offered little protection against the predominant influenza A/H3N2 virus but were effective against influenza B. Preferential use of LAIV among young children was not supported.