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"Fullerton, Don"
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Leakage, Welfare, and Cost-Effectiveness of Carbon Policy
We extend the model of Fullerton, Karney, and Baylis (2012) to explore cost-effectiveness of unilateral climate policy in the presence of leakage. We ignore the welfare gain from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and focus on the welfare cost of the emissions tax or permit scheme. Whereas that prior paper solves for changes in emissions quantities and finds that leakage may be negative, we show here that all cases with negative leakage in that model are cases where a unilateral carbon tax results in a welfare loss. With positive leakage, however, a unilateral policy can improve welfare.
Journal Article
Vertical and Horizontal Redistributions from a Carbon Tax and Rebate
Are carbon taxes regressive? To calculate effects of a carbon tax on each family's expenditures, plus distributional effects of three revenue-recycling mechanisms, we employ the US Treasury Distribution Model. It includes 322,000 tax returns, matched social security information, imputations from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and an input-output matrix to calculate output prices. Accounting for statutory indexing of federal transfer programs, the calculated carbon tax burden as a fraction of consumption is progressive. Rebate of revenues via transfers makes it even more progressive. Within each decile, we find large variation in energy demands such as for heat in winter and cooling in summer. As a result, commonly ignored horizontal redistributions within deciles are shown to exceed vertical redistributions between deciles. Rebates via transfers widen horizontal redistributions. Some reforms deliver net income gains to the poorest families on average, even as a majority of those poor families incur losses.
Journal Article
Two Generalizations of a Deposit-Refund System
A direct tax is not easy to impose on dumping or litter, so a useful alternative is the deposit-refund system. Two important generalizations of the deposit-refund idea are suggested. In the first generalization, the idea is applied not just to solid waste materials, but to any waste from production or consumption, including waste that may be solid, gaseous or liquid. In the second generalization, the case is considered where government must use distorting taxes on labor and capital incomes. To help meet the revenue requirement, at issue is whether the optimal deposit would be raised and the refund reduced. The second-best-revenue-raising deposit-refund system or two-part instrument to answer that question is derived.
Journal Article
The General Equilibrium Incidence of Environmental Mandates
Pollution regulations affect factor demands, relative returns, production, and output prices. In our model, one sector includes pollution as an input that can be a complement or substitute for labor or capital. For each type of mandate, we find conditions where more burden is on labor or on capital. Stricter regulation does not always place less burden on the better substitute for pollution. Also, restrictions on pollution per unit output create an \"output-subsidy effect\" on factor prices that can reverse the usual output and substitution effects. We find analogous effects for a restriction on pollution per unit capital.
Journal Article
The Taxation of Income from Capital
Taxation—both corporate and personal—has been held responsible for the low investment and productivity growth rates experienced in the West during the last decade. This book, a comparative study of the taxation of income from capital in the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and West Germany, establishes for the first time a common framework for analysis that permits accurate comparison of tax systems.
eBook
Vehicle choices, miles driven, and pollution policies
Mobile sources contribute large percentages of each pollutant, but technology is not yet available to measure and tax emissions from each vehicle. We build a behavioral model of household choices about vehicles and miles traveled. The ideal-but-unavailable emissions tax would encourage drivers to abate emissions through many behaviors, some of which involve market transactions that can be observed for feasible market incentives (such as a gas tax, subsidy to new cars, or tax by vehicle type). Our model can calculate behavioral effects of each such price and thus calculate car choices, miles, and emissions. A nested logit structure is used to model discrete choices among different vehicle bundles. We also consider continuous choices of miles driven and the age of each vehicle. We propose a consistent estimation method for both discrete and continuous demands in one step, to capture the interactive effects of simultaneous decisions. Results are compared with those of the traditional sequential estimation procedure.
Journal Article
Who bears the burden of a tax on carbon emissions in Japan?
We develop a simple general equilibrium model in the style of Harberger to analyze the distributional effects of the proposed \"environment tax\" on carbon in Japan. We derive closed-form equations that show how a change in the tax rate affects the economy-wide return to capital, wage, and output prices. The two main features of the economy that determine the sources-side incidence of the tax are the factor intensities of the polluting and nonpolluting industries and the elasticity of substitution in production between polluting inputs and labor or capital. The input that is a better substitute for pollution usually bears a lower burden of the tax than the other input, although we find conditions under which this is not true. If the polluting sector is relatively capital intensive, then capital can bear a higher burden of the tax. Calibrating this model to the Japanese economy, we find a trade-off between these two effects. Polluting industries are more capital intensive, but capital is likely to be a better substitute for pollution than is labor. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Journal Article