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For those involved in planning for regional and local scale changes in future climate, there is a requirement for climate information to be available in a context more usually associated with meteorological timescales. Here we combine a tool used in numerical weather prediction, the 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which are already applied operationally to numerical weather prediction models, to assess changes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Global ensemble. Through assessing projected changes in the frequency of the weather patterns at the end of the 21st Century, we determine that future changes in large-scale circulation tend towards an increase in winter of weather patterns associated with cyclonic and westerly wind conditions at the expense of more anticyclonic, settled/blocked weather patterns. In summer, the results indicate a shift towards an increase in dry settled weather types with a corresponding reduction in the wet and windy weather types. Climatologically this suggests a shift towards warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers; which is consistent with the headline findings from the UK Climate Projections 2018. This paper represents the first evaluation of weather patterns analysis within UKCP Global. It provides a detailed assessment of the changes in these weather patterns through the 21st Century and how uncertainty in emissions, structural and perturbed parameters affects these results. We show that the use of these weather patterns in tandem with the UKCP projections is useful for future work investigating changes in a range of weather-related climate features such as extreme precipitation.

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50: 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

We undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to arrive at recommendations for shaping communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. Climate communications often report on scientific findings that contain different sources of uncertainty. Potential users of these communications are members of the general public, as well as decision makers and climate advisors from government, business and non-governmental institutions worldwide. Many of these users may lack formal training in climate science or related disciplines. We systematically review the English-language peer-reviewed empirical literature from cognitive and behavioral sciences and related fields, which examines how users perceive communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. We aim to summarize how users’ responses to communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings are associated with characteristics of the decision context, including climate change consequences and types of uncertainty as well as user characteristics, such as climate change beliefs, environmental worldviews, political ideology, numerical skills, and others. We also aimed to identify what general recommendations for communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings can be delineated. We find that studies of communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings substantially varied in how they operationalized uncertainty, as well as how they measured responses. Studies mostly focused on uncertainty stemming from conflicting information, such as diverging model estimates or experts, or from expressions of imprecision such as ranges. Among other things, users’ understanding was improved when climate communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings were presented with explanations about why climate information was uncertain, and when ranges were presented with lower and upper numerical bounds. Users’ understanding also improved if they expressed stronger beliefs about climate change, or had better numerical skills. Based on these findings, we provide emerging recommendations on how to best present communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings; and we identify research gaps.

Background Periods of droughts can lead to decreased food security, and altered behaviours, potentially affecting outcomes on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among persons with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether decreased rainfall is associated with adverse outcomes among PWH on ART in Southern Africa. Methods Data were combined from 11 clinical cohorts of PWH in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. Adult PWH who had started ART prior to 01/06/2016 and were in follow-up in the year prior to 01/06/2016 were included. Two-year rainfall from June 2014 to May 2016 at the location of each HIV centre was summed and ranked against historical 2-year rainfall amounts (1981–2016) to give an empirical relative percentile rainfall estimate. The IeDEA-SA and rainfall data were combined using each HIV centre’s latitude/longitude. In individual-level analyses, multivariable Cox or generalized estimating equation regression models (GEEs) assessed associations between decreased rainfall versus historical levels and four separate outcomes (mortality, CD4 counts < 200 cells/mm 3 , viral loads > 400 copies/mL, and > 12-month gaps in follow-up) in the two years following the rainfall period. GEEs were used to investigate the association between relative rainfall and monthly numbers of unique visitors per HIV centre. Results Among 270,708 PWH across 386 HIV centres (67% female, median age 39 [IQR: 32–46]), lower rainfall than usual was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 1.18 [95%CI: 1.07–1.32] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease) and unsuppressed viral loads (adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [1.01–1.09]). Levels of rainfall were not strongly associated with CD4 counts < 200 cell/mm 3 or > 12-month gaps in care. HIV centres in areas with less rainfall than usual had lower numbers of PWH visiting them (adjusted Rate Ratio: 0.80 [0.66–0.98] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease). Conclusions Decreased rainfall could negatively impact on HIV treatment behaviours and outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for these effects. Interventions to mitigate the health impact of severe weather events are required.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to employ the theory of reasoned action (TRA) as a theoretical framework to investigate factors affecting individuals' attitudes toward knowledge sharing in construction teams in Hong Kong. Specifically, the factors are analyzed from a cost and benefit perspective grounded in social exchange theory.Design methodology approach - An exploratory study using semi-structured interviews is conducted first to explore context-specific cost and benefit factors. Based on the exploratory study results and TRA, a research model and hypotheses are developed. A questionnaire survey is then conducted among professionals working in contractors in Hong Kong. The quantitative data are analyzed using structural equation modelling.Findings - The research results indicate that individuals' attitudes toward knowledge sharing are positively affected by knowledge self-efficacy and knowledge feedback, while negatively affected by losing face. Further, it is revealed that attitude toward knowledge sharing significantly determines intention to share knowledge, which then determines knowledge sharing behavior.Originality value - The paper is one of the first to employ existing theories in social psychology to examine knowledge sharing behavior in the construction sector. The research results provide important implications for construction companies to promote knowledge sharing in project teams.

Difficulties are faced when formulating hydrological processes, including that of evapotranspiration (ET). Conventional empirical methods for formulating these possess some shortcomings. The artificial intelligence approach emerges as the best possible solution to map the relationships between climatic parameters and ET, even with limited knowledge of the interactions between variables. This review presents the state-of-the-art application of artificial intelligence models in ET estimation, along with different types and sources of data. This paper discovers the most significant climatic parameters for different climate patterns. The characteristics of the basic artificial intelligence models are also explored in this review. To overcome the pitfalls of the individual models, hybrid models which use techniques such as data fusion and ensemble modeling, data decomposition as well as remote sensing-based hybridization, are introduced. In particular, the principles and applications of the hybridization techniques, as well as their combinations with basic models, are explained. The review covers most of the related and excellent papers published from 2011 to 2019 to keep its relevancy in terms of time frame and field of study. Guidelines for the future prospects of ET estimation in research are advocated. It is anticipated that such work could contribute to the development of agriculture-based economy.

The methods used to generate process-based global and local mean sea-level projections have evolved substantially over the last fifteen years, including improved process understanding, advances in ice-sheet modelling, the use of emulators and further development of high-end scenarios. During this time, two sets of UK national sea-level projections have been generated as part of the UK Climate Projections in 2009 (UKCP09; Lowe et al 2009) and in 2018 (UKCP18; Palmer et al 2018b). UKCP18 presented local mean sea-level projections for the UK coastline for the 21st century rooted in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and in methods used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), with an emulator-based methodology to provide extended projections to 2300 (Palmer et al 2018a; 2020). We compare UKCP18 global and local mean sea-level projections with those presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, IPCC 2021a). We find the likely range projections (characterising the central two-thirds of the distribution) are broadly similar at 2150 to within 0.1 m, except at Edinburgh, where the maximum difference is 0.22 m under medium emissions. Differences arise due to higher contributions from sterodynamic processes and the Antarctic ice sheet, and higher or lower vertical land movement, in AR6 compared to UKCP18. We also compare high-end sea-level rise estimates, presented in AR6 and UKCP09, finding reasonable global and UK local agreement over the 21st century. We explore future paths for UK sea-level science considering both user needs for information and developments in modelling capability. Future UK sea-level projections would benefit from updated high-end sea-level rise scenarios which extend beyond 2100 and continued efforts to build understanding of observed sea-level change drivers. Alongside close collaboration with user groups this would enhance the utility of local sea-level projections by UK coastal practitioners and decision-makers.

Drought is a harmful and little understood natural hazard. Effective drought prediction is vital for sustainable agricultural activities and water resources management. The support vector regression (SVR) model and two of its enhanced variants, namely, fuzzy-support vector regression (F-SVR) and boosted-support vector regression (BS-SVR) models, for predicting the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI) (in this case, SPEI-1, SPEI-3 and SPEI-6, at various timescales) with a lead time of one month, were developed to minimize potential drought impact on oil palm plantations at the downstream end of the Langat River Basin, which has a tropical climate pattern. Observed SPEIs from periods 1976 to 2011 and 2012 to 2015 were used for model training and validation, respectively. By applying the MAE, RMSE, MBE and R2 as model assessments, it was found that the F-SVR model was best with the trend of improving accuracy when the timescale of the SPEIs increased. It was also found that differences in model performance deteriorates with increased timescale of the SPEIs. The outlier reducing effect from the fuzzy concept has better improvement for the SVR-based models compared to the boosting technique in predicting SPEI-1, SPEI-3 and SPEI-6 for a one-month lead time at the downstream of Langat River Basin.

The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.

Natural calamities like droughts have harmed not just humanity throughout history but also the economy, food, agricultural production, flora, animal habitat, etc. A drought monitoring system must incorporate a study of the geographical and temporal fluctuation of the drought characteristics to function effectively. This study investigated the space–time heterogeneity of drought features across Sabah and Sarawak, East Malaysia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIs) at timescales of 1-month, 3-months, and 6-months was selected to determine the spatial distribution of drought characteristics. Rainfall hydrographs for the area for 30 years between 1988 and 2017 have been used in this study. A total of six five-year sub-periods were studied, with an emphasis on the lowest and highest drought occurrence. The sub-periods were a division of the 30 years over an arbitrary continual division for convenience. The results showed that the sub-periods 1993–1997 and 2008–2012 had the highest and lowest comparative drought events. The drought conditions were particularly severe in Central and Eastern  parts of East Malaysia, owing to El Nino events and the country's hilly terrain. Understanding how and when drought occurs can aid in establishing and developing drought mitigation strategies for the region.