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The past two decades have seen exponential clinical and research interest in help-seeking individuals presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms for psychosis. However, the epidemiological validity of this paradigm has been neglected, limiting future advancements in the field. We undertook a critical review of core epidemiological issues underlying the clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis and which model of prodromal intervention is best suited for mental health. The HR state for psychosis model needs refining, to bring together population-based findings of high levels of psychotic experiences (PEs) and clinical expression of risk. Traditionally, outcome has been attributed to 'HR criteria' alone rather than taking into account sampling strategies. Furthermore, the exclusive focus on variably defined 'transition' obscures true variation in the slow and non-linear progression across stages of psychopathology. Finally, the outcome from HR states is variable, indicating that the underlying paradigm of 'schizophrenia light progressing to schizophrenia' is inadequate. In the general population, mixed and non-specific expression of psychosis, depression, anxiety and subthreshold mania is common and mostly transitory. When combined with distress, it may be considered as the first, diagnostically neutral stage of potentially more severe psychopathology, which only later may acquire a degree of diagnostic specificity and possible relative resistance to treatment. Therefore, rather than creating silos of per-disorder ultra-HR syndromes, an early intervention focus on the broad syndrome of early mental distress, requiring phase-specific interventions, may be more profitable.

Suicide accounts for 2.2% of all years of life lost worldwide. We aimed to establish whether infectious epidemics are associated with any changes in the incidence of suicide or the period prevalence of self-harm, or thoughts of suicide or self-harm, with a secondary objective of establishing the frequency of these outcomes. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and AMED were searched from inception to 9 September 2020. Studies of infectious epidemics reporting outcomes of (a) death by suicide, (b) self-harm or (c) thoughts of suicide or self-harm were identified. A random-effects model meta-analysis for the period prevalence of thoughts of suicide or self-harm was conducted. In total, 1354 studies were screened with 57 meeting eligibility criteria, of which 7 described death by suicide, 9 by self-harm, and 45 thoughts of suicide or self-harm. The observation period ranged from 1910 to 2020 and included epidemics of Spanish Flu, severe acute respiratory syndrome, human monkeypox, Ebola virus disease and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Regarding death by suicide, data with a clear longitudinal comparison group were available for only two epidemics: SARS in Hong Kong, finding an increase in suicides among the elderly, and COVID-19 in Japan, finding no change in suicides among children and adolescents. In terms of self-harm, five studies examined emergency department attendances in epidemic and non-epidemic periods, of which four found no difference and one showed a reduction during the epidemic. In studies of thoughts of suicide or self-harm, one large survey showed a substantial increase in period prevalence compared to non-epidemic periods, but smaller studies showed no difference. As a secondary objective, a meta-analysis of thoughts of suicide and self-harm found that the pooled prevalence was 8.0% overall (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2-12.0%; 14 820 of 99 238 cases in 24 studies) over a time period of between seven days and six months. The quality assessment found 42 studies were of high quality, nine of moderate quality and six of high quality. There is little robust evidence on the association of infectious epidemics with suicide, self-harm and thoughts of suicide or self-harm. There was an increase in suicides among the elderly in Hong Kong during SARS and no change in suicides among young people in Japan during COVID-19, but it is unclear how far these findings may be generalised. The development of up-to-date self-harm and suicide statistics to monitor the effect of the current pandemic is an urgent priority.

Many research groups have attempted to predict which individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis will later develop a psychotic disorder. However, it is difficult to predict the course and outcome based on individual symptoms scores. Data from 318 ARMS individuals from two specialized services for ARMS subjects were analysed using latent class cluster analysis (LCCA). The score on the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS) was used to explore the number, size and symptom profiles of latent classes. LCCA produced four high-risk classes, censored after 2 years of follow-up: class 1 (mild) had the lowest transition risk (4.9%). Subjects in this group had the lowest scores on all the CAARMS items, they were younger, more likely to be students and had the highest Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score. Subjects in class 2 (moderate) had a transition risk of 10.9%, scored moderately on all CAARMS items and were more likely to be in employment. Those in class 3 (moderate-severe) had a transition risk of 11.4% and scored moderately severe on the CAARMS. Subjects in class 4 (severe) had the highest transition risk (41.2%), they scored highest on the CAARMS, had the lowest GAF score and were more likely to be unemployed. Overall, class 4 was best distinguished from the other classes on the alogia, avolition/apathy, anhedonia, social isolation and impaired role functioning. The different classes of symptoms were associated with significant differences in the risk of transition at 2 years of follow-up. Symptomatic clustering predicts prognosis better than individual symptoms.

Schizophrenia is characterized by altered prefrontal activity and elevated striatal dopaminergic function. To investigate the relationship between these abnormalities in the prodromal phase of the illness, we combined functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and 18 F-Dopa Positron Emission Tomography. When performing a verbal fluency task, subjects with an At-Risk Mental State showed greater activation in the inferior frontal cortex than controls. Striatal dopamine function was greater in the At-Risk group than in controls. Within the At-Risk group, but not the control group, there was a direct correlation between the degree of left inferior frontal activation and the level of striatal dopamine function. Altered prefrontal activation in subjects with an At-Risk Mental State for psychosis is related to elevated striatal dopamine function. These changes reflect an increased vulnerability to psychosis and predate the first episode of frank psychosis.

IntroductionThere is limited research in adolescent at risk for psychosis. The new criteria of Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (APS) of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders- 5 (DSM-5) have not been validated.ObjectivesThe aims of this study were to: 1) characterize adolescent’s profile with APS (DSM-5 APS) compared to adolescents with early onset psychosis (EOP) and with other psychiatric disorders (non-APS); 2) to estimate their long-term risk of transition to psychosis and prognostic accuracy of DSM-5APS.Methods243 adolescents, aged 12-17, were included (October 2012-July 2019) and dived in three sub-groups (110 DSM-5 APS, 31 EOP, 102 non-APS). All underwent a comprehensive assessment evaluating: sociodemographic characteristics, family and personal history of any DSM-5 psychiatric disorders, psychopathological assessment and level of functioning. An annual follow-up evaluation was carried out (up to 7 years) including a clinical interview to investigate DSM-5 criteria for transition to psychosis.ResultsDSM-5 APS adolescents had on average higher comorbid disorders (2.3) and intermediate psychopathological and functioning profile between non-APS/EOP. The cumulative risk of transition at 1,2,3, 4-5 years was 13%, 17%, 24.2%, 26.8% and 26.8% in DSM-5 APS group, 0%, 0%, 3.2%, 3.2% and 3.2% in the non-APS. The 5-year prognostic accuracy of the DSM-5 APS in adolescent was adequate (Area Under the Curve=0.77) with high sensitivity (91.3%) and suboptimal specificity (63.2%).ConclusionsThe DSM-5 APS diagnosis can be used to detect help-seeking adolescents at risk of psychosis and predict their long-term outcomes, leading the way to new preventive approaches.DisclosureThe authors declare that they do not have a significant financial interest, consultancy or other relationship with products, manufacturer(s) of products or providers of services related to this abstrac.

Impairments in the attribution of salience are thought to be fundamental to the development of psychotic symptoms and the onset of psychotic disorders. The aim of the present study was to explore longitudinal alterations in salience processing in ultra-high-risk subjects for psychosis. A total of 23 ultra-high-risk subjects and 13 healthy controls underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging at two time points (mean interval of 17 months) while performing the Salience Attribution Test to assess neural responses to task-relevant (adaptive salience) and task-irrelevant (aberrant salience) stimulus features. At presentation, high-risk subjects were less likely than controls to attribute salience to relevant features, and more likely to attribute salience to irrelevant stimulus features. These behavioural differences were no longer evident at follow-up. When attributing salience to relevant cue features, ultra-high-risk subjects showed less activation than controls in the ventral striatum at both baseline and follow-up. Within the high-risk sample, amelioration of abnormal beliefs over the follow-up period was correlated with an increase in right ventral striatum activation during the attribution of salience to relevant cue features. These findings confirm that salience processing is perturbed in ultra-high-risk subjects for psychosis, that this is linked to alterations in ventral striatum function, and that clinical outcomes are related to longitudinal changes in ventral striatum function during salience processing.

Animal models of psychosis propose that abnormal hippocampal activity drives increased subcortical dopamine function, which is thought to contribute to aberrant salience processing and psychotic symptoms. These effects appear to be mediated through connections between the hippocampus, ventral striatum/pallidum and the midbrain. The aim of the present study was to examine the activity and connectivity in this pathway in people at ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to compare neural responses in a hippocampal–basal ganglia–midbrain network during reward, novelty and aversion processing between 29 UHR subjects and 32 healthy controls. We then investigated whether effective connectivity within this network is perturbed in UHR subjects, using dynamic causal modelling (DCM). Finally, we examined the relationship between alterations in activation and connectivity in the UHR subjects and the severity of their psychotic symptoms. During reward anticipation, UHR subjects showed greater activation than controls in the ventral pallidum bilaterally. There were no differences in activation during novelty or aversion processing. DCM revealed that reward-induced modulation of connectivity from the ventral striatum/pallidum to the midbrain was greater in UHR subjects than controls, and that in UHR subjects, the strength of connectivity in this pathway was correlated with the severity of their abnormal beliefs. In conclusion, ventral striatal/pallidal function is altered in people at UHR for psychosis and this is related to the level of their psychotic symptoms.

Interpersonal sensitivity is a personality trait described as excessive awareness of both the behaviour and feelings of others. Although interpersonal sensitivity has been found to be one of the vulnerability factors to depression, there has been little interest in its relationship with the prodromal phase of psychosis. The aims of this study were to examine the level of interpersonal sensitivity in a sample of individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis and its relationship with other psychopathological features. Sixty-two individuals with an ARMS for psychosis and 39 control participants completed a series of self-report questionnaires, including the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM), the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ), the Ways of Coping Questionnaire (WCQ) and the Depression and Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS). Individuals with an ARMS reported higher interpersonal sensitivity compared to controls. Associations between interpersonal sensitivity, positive psychotic symptoms (i.e. paranoid ideation), avoidant coping and symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress were also found. This study suggests that being 'hypersensitive' to interpersonal interactions is a psychological feature of the putatively prodromal phase of psychosis. The relationship between interpersonal sensitivity, attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, avoidant coping and negative emotional states may contribute to long-term deficits in social functioning. We illustrate the importance, when assessing a young client with a possible ARMS, of examining more subtle and subjective symptoms in addition to attenuated positive symptoms.

ObjectiveEvidence syntheses such as systematic reviews and meta-analyses provide a rigorous and transparent knowledge base for translating clinical research into decisions, and thus they represent the basic unit of knowledge in medicine. Umbrella reviews are reviews of previously published systematic reviews or meta-analyses. Therefore, they represent one of the highest levels of evidence synthesis currently available, and are becoming increasingly influential in biomedical literature. However, practical guidance on how to conduct umbrella reviews is relatively limited.MethodsWe present a critical educational review of published umbrella reviews, focusing on the essential practical steps required to produce robust umbrella reviews in the medical field.ResultsThe current manuscript discusses 10 key points to consider for conducting robust umbrella reviews. The points are: ensure that the umbrella review is really needed, prespecify the protocol, clearly define the variables of interest, estimate a common effect size, report the heterogeneity and potential biases, perform a stratification of the evidence, conduct sensitivity analyses, report transparent results, use appropriate software and acknowledge the limitations. We illustrate these points through recent examples from umbrella reviews and suggest specific practical recommendations.ConclusionsThe current manuscript provides a practical guidance for conducting umbrella reviews in medical areas. Researchers, clinicians and policy makers might use the key points illustrated here to inform the planning, conduction and reporting of umbrella reviews in medicine.

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.