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Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Body size–dependent physiological effects of temperature influence individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which govern animal population responses to global warming. Considerable knowledge has been established on how such effects can affect population growth and size structure, but less is known of their potential role in temperature-driven adaptation in life-history traits. In this study, we ask how warming affects the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction and disentangle the underlying fitness trade-offs. To this end, we develop a novel dynamic energy budget integral projection model (DEB–IPM), linking individuals’ size- and temperature-dependent consumption and maintenance via somatic growth, reproduction, and size-dependent energy allocation to emergent population responses. At the population level, we calculate the long-term population growth rate (fitness) and stable size structure emerging from demographic processes. Applying the model to an example of pike (Esox lucius), we find that optimal energy allocation to growth decreases with warming. Furthermore, we demonstrate how growth, fecundity, and survival contribute to this change in optimal allocation. Higher energy allocation to somatic growth at low temperatures increases fitness through survival of small individuals and through the reproduction of larger individuals. In contrast, at high temperatures, increased allocation to reproduction is favored because warming induces faster somatic growth of small individuals and increased fecundity but reduced growth and higher mortality of larger individuals. Reduced optimum allocation to growth leads to further reductions in body size and an increasingly truncated population size structure with warming. Our study demonstrates how, by incorporating general physiological mechanisms driving the temperature dependence of life-history traits, the DEB–IPM framework is useful for investigating the adaptation of size-structured organisms to warming.

Ectotherms are predicted to ‘shrink’ with global warming, in line with general growth models and the temperature-size rule (TSR), both predicting smaller adult sizes with warming. However, they also predict faster juvenile growth rates and thus larger size-at-age of young organisms. Hence, the result of warming on the size-structure of a population depends on the interplay between how mortality rate, juvenile- and adult growth rates are affected by warming. Here, we use two-decade long time series of biological samples from a unique enclosed bay heated by cooling water from a nearby nuclear power plant to become 5–10 °C warmer than its reference area. We used growth-increment biochronologies (12,658 reconstructed length-at-age estimates from 2426 individuals) to quantify how >20 years of warming has affected body growth, size-at-age, and catch to quantify mortality rates and population size- and age structure of Eurasian perch ( Perca fluviatilis ). In the heated area, growth rates were faster for all sizes, and hence size-at-age was larger for all ages, compared to the reference area. While mortality rates were also higher (lowering mean age by 0.4 years), the faster growth rates lead to a 2 cm larger mean size in the heated area. Differences in the size-spectrum exponent (describing how the abundance declines with size) were less clear statistically. Our analyses reveal that mortality, in addition to plastic growth and size-responses, is a key factor determining the size structure of populations exposed to warming. Understanding the mechanisms by which warming affects the size- and the age structure of populations is critical for predicting the impacts of climate change on ecological functions, interactions, and dynamics.

Global warming can alter size distributions of animal communities, but the contribution of size shifts within versus between species to such changes remains unknown. In particular, it is unclear if expected body size shrinkage in response to warming, observed at the interspecific level, can be used to infer similar size shifts within species. In this study, we compare warming effects on interspecific (relative species abundance) versus intraspecific (relative stage abundance) size structure of competing consumers by analyzing stage-structured bioenergetic food web models consisting of one or two consumer species and two resources, parameterized for pelagic plankton. Varying composition and temperature and body size dependencies in these models, we predicted interspecific versus intraspecific size structure across temperature. We found that warming shifted community size structure toward dominance of smaller species, in line with empirical evidence summarized in our review of 136 literature studies. However, this result emerged only given a size–temperature interaction favoring small over large individuals in warm environments. In contrast, the same mechanism caused an intraspecific shift toward dominance of larger (adult) stages, reconciling disparate observations of size responses within and across zooplankton species in the literature. As the empirical evidence for warming-driven stage shifts is scarce and equivocal, we call for more experimental studies on intraspecific size changes with warming. Understanding the global warming impacts on animal communities requires that we consider and quantify the relative importance of mechanisms concurrently shaping size distributions within and among species.

Body size is a key functional trait that has declined in many biological communities, partly due to changes in individual growth rates in response to climate warming. However, our understanding of growth responses in natural populations is limited by relatively short time series without large temperature contrasts and unknown levels of adaptation to local temperatures across populations within species. In this study, we collated back‐calculated length‐at‐age data for the fish Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis from 10 populations along the Baltic Sea coast between 1953 and 2015 (142 023 length‐at‐age measurements). We fitted individual growth trajectories using the von Bertalanffy growth equation, and reconstructed local temperature time series using generalized linear mixed models fitted to three data sources. Leveraging a uniquely large temperature contrast due to climate change and artificial heating from nuclear power plants in two of the examined populations, we then estimated population‐specific and global (across populations) growth–temperature relationships using Bayesian mixed models, and evaluated whether populations are locally adapted to environmental temperatures. We found little evidence for local adaptation of body growth. Populations did not exhibit unique optimum growth temperatures nor unique growth rates at a common reference temperature. Instead, population‐specific curves mapped onto a global curve, resulting in body growth increasing with warming in cold populations but decreasing in one of the warmer populations. Understanding whether the effects of warming on growth are population‐specific is critical for generalizing predictions of climate impacts on body size, which affects multiple levels of biological organization from individuals to ecosystem functioning.

How does warming affect maturation and reproductive investment in ectotherms? Younger age and smaller size at maturation, as well as altered reproduction processes, have been found in a few species subjected to elevated temperatures. These observations, however, come from studies that do not distinguish effects of warming on maturation from those on growth, are also restricted to single generation responses to warming, or have additional stressors besides warming in the study system. Here, we study warming effects on maturation and reproductive investment in wild, unexploited fish populations using a whole‐ecosystem heating experiment. The experiment is conducted on Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) in a heated and control area (with >5°C temperature difference) in the Baltic Sea. We compare female perch size at maturation using estimated probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) and the gonado‐somatic index over 17 years of heating, spanning approximately five to eight perch generations. Using the PMRN approach, we show that warming has substantial effects on maturation size independent of warming‐induced changes in body growth. We found that young fish mature at a smaller size and invest more in developing their gonads in the heated population than in the unheated population. Our findings suggest that warming effects on reproductive investment may initially compensate for the cost of warming‐induced decrease in maturation size caused by the trade‐off between early maturation and size‐dependent fecundity. After multiple additional generations of warming, maturation and reproduction traits in perch differed from those in the first generations following the onset of warming, which suggests that warming‐induced evolution may have occurred. Our study is particularly relevant in the context of climate change because of the unusually large temperature difference between the areas and the fact that the heating occurred on an ecosystem level. We call for experimental studies resolving mechanisms of trait responses to warming across generations, complemented with genomic analyses, to aid understanding of organisms' long‐term responses to climate change.

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Individual specialization is a common phenomenon throughout the animal kingdom. Many studies have identified intraspecific competition as one of the main drivers for individual feeding specialization. These studies have mainly considered the quantity of resources, commonly overlooking qualitative aspects of the diet. For example, highly unsaturated fatty acids of the ω‐3 class (ω‐3 HUFAs) are related to optimal health and growth in consumers. However, little is known on direct fitness consequences for consumers of natural populations that specialize on high‐quality resources, such as those rich in ω‐3 HUFAs. Despite being such an important qualitative aspect of the diet, it is still unknown whether natural populations show among‐individual variation in their choice on prey items that are either rich or poor in HUFAs, and how it affects individual performances. In this study, we investigated whether there is individual feeding specialization and whether it is related to fitness benefits, in a population of perch (Perca fluviatilis) in the Baltic Sea. The contribution of pelagic planktivorous fish to the diet varied from 17% to 61% among perch individuals, as depicted by stable isotope mixing models. This variation in diet was also qualitative, as the ω‐3 HUFA content differed among prey types. Specialization on the high‐quality resource pelagic planktivorous fish was associated with the proportions of ω‐3 HUFA in the individuals’ muscles and individuals among those with the highest proportions of ω‐3 HUFAs had the greatest relative gonad weight (gonadosomatic index, GSI), a proxy for reproductive investment. Thus, our results highlight the function of food quality for individual specialization and its potential to have direct fitness benefits, playing a major role in shaping ecological interactions.

Temperature variability and extremes can have profound impacts on populations and ecological communities. Predicting impacts of thermal variability poses a challenge, because it has both direct physiological effects and indirect effects through species interactions. In addition, differences in thermal performance between predators and prey and nonlinear averaging of temperature-dependent performance can result in complex and counterintuitive population dynamics in response to climate change. Yet the combined consequences of these effects remain underexplored. Here, modelling temperature-dependent predator–prey dynamics, we study how changes in temperature variability affect population size, collapse and stable coexistence of both predator and prey, relative to under constant environments or warming alone. We find that the effects of temperature variation on interacting species can lead to a diversity of outcomes, from predator collapse to stable coexistence, depending on interaction strengths and differences in species' thermal performance. Temperature variability also alters predictions about population collapse—in some cases allowing predators to persist for longer than predicted when considering warming alone, and in others accelerating collapse. To inform management responses that are robust to future climates with increasing temperature variability and extremes, we need to incorporate the consequences of temperature variation in complex ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.