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The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003–2014 as a function of key environmental drivers. These sensitivities are then used to predict temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics under four scenarios. Results show that by 2100, under high-emission scenario, greening will likely mitigate land warming by 0.71 ± 0.40 °C, and 83% of such effect (0.59 ± 0.41 °C) is driven by the increase in plant carbon sequestration, while the remaining cooling (0.12 ± 0.05 °C) is due to biophysical land-atmosphere interactions. In addition, our results show a large potential of vegetation to reduce future land warming in the very-stringent scenario (35 ± 20% of the overall warming signal), whereas this effect is limited to 11 ± 6% under the high-emission scenario.

Forest-based climate mitigation may occur through conserving and enhancing the carbon sink and through reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Yet the inclusion of forests in international climate agreements has been complex, often considered a secondary mitigation option. In the context of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries submitted their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDCs), including climate mitigation targets. Assuming full implementation of (I)NDCs, we show that land use, and forests in particular, emerge as a key component of the Paris Agreement: turning globally from a net anthropogenic source during 1990–2010 (1.3 ± 1.1 GtCO 2 e yr −1 ) to a net sink of carbon by 2030 (up to −1.1 ± 0.5 GtCO 2 e yr −1 ), and providing a quarter of emission reductions planned by countries. Realizing and tracking this mitigation potential requires more transparency in countries’ pledges and enhanced science-policy cooperation to increase confidence in numbers, including reconciling the ≍3 GtCO 2 e yr −1 difference in estimates between country reports and scientific studies. Forests are a key component of the Paris Agreement, providing about a quarter of planned emission reductions. Realizing this ambition, however, requires greater confidence in forest estimates, presenting a challenge and an opportunity for science.

Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface. These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU’s vision of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016–2018 relative to 2011–2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050.

Rapid emissions reductions, including reductions in deforestation-based land emissions, are the dominant source of global climate mitigation potential in the coming decades. However, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will also have an important role to play. Despite this, it remains unclear whether current national proposals for CDR align with temperature targets. Here we show the ‘CDR gap’, that is, CDR efforts proposed by countries fall short of those in integrated assessment model scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. However, the most ambitious proposals for CDR are close to levels in a low-energy demand scenario with the most-limited CDR scaling and aggressive near-term emissions reductions. Further, we observe that many countries propose to expand land-based removals, but none yet commit to substantively scaling novel methods such as bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar or direct air carbon capture and storage. Carbon dioxide removals (CDR) have been integrated into country-submitted reports under the Paris Agreement. However, this Analysis finds a gap between levels of CDR in these national proposals and the scenarios limiting global warming to the 1.5 °C target.

Since the 1950s—after centuries of stock decline and deforestation—European forests started to recover, becoming a persistent carbon sink. The effect was projected to continue for decades, however there are early signs that the sink is saturating. This Perspective calls for a timely reaction from policymakers and forest managers to sustain European forests and thus the carbon sink. European forests are seen as a clear example of vegetation rebound in the Northern Hemisphere; recovering in area and growing stock since the 1950s, after centuries of stock decline and deforestation. These regrowing forests have shown to be a persistent carbon sink, projected to continue for decades, however, there are early signs of saturation. Forest policies and management strategies need revision if we want to sustain the sink.

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.There is a mismatch between emission estimates from global land use calculated from IAMs and countries’ greenhouse gas inventories. This study presents a method for reconciling these estimates by reallocating part of the land-use sink, facilitating progress assessment towards climate goals.

Insomnia is highly prevalent in adults with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), worsening core symptoms, mood, and cognition. Despite its impact, pharmacological options remain limited. Dual orexin receptor antagonists, such as daridorexant, are a promising yet untested approach in this population. In a naturalistic one-month study, 24 adults with ADHD and comorbid insomnia disorder received daridorexant 50 mg nightly. Sleep outcomes were assessed with the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Sleep Condition Indicator (SCI), and actigraphy-based measures. Secondary measures included ADHD symptoms (Barkley Adult ADHD Rating Scale–IV, BAARS-IV), cognitive performance (Conners' Continuous Performance Test–3, CPT-3), and mood and anxiety (Symptoms of Depression Questionnaire, SDQ). ISI and SCI scores improved significantly (both p < .001). Actigraphy confirmed longer total sleep time, higher sleep efficiency, and shorter sleep onset latency; after correction, ISI/SCI improvement and longer total sleep time remained significant. Clinically, 62.5% achieved meaningful improvement (≥7-point ISI reduction), 25% partial-to-minimal, and 12.5% no change or worsening; nearly two-thirds reached non-clinical insomnia levels. CPT-3 revealed enhanced sustained attention and response consistency, with further gains in selective attention and reduced impulsivity among responders. BAARS-IV showed overall improvement, with the sluggish cognitive tempo subscale reaching significance. Mood and anxiety improved, and the SDQ appetite/weight subscale decreased significantly even after correction, suggesting reduced perceived appetite or weight. Daridorexant was well tolerated; two participants reported daytime sleepiness or sedation, and one discontinued due to persistent sedation. In this preliminary sample, daridorexant was associated with improvements in sleep, attention, mood and anxiety in adults with ADHD and insomnia, supporting further controlled trials. •Insomnia disorder is common in ADHD, but effective treatments remain scarce.•This is the first study testing daridorexant in adults with ADHD and insomnia disorder.•Daridorexant reduced insomnia symptoms in two-thirds of ADHD patients.•Actigraphy showed longer total sleep duration, higher efficiency, and reduced sleep onset latency.•Daridorexant also improved ADHD symptoms, cognition, mood and anxiety symptoms.

Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways1. However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates2,3, a gap that will evolve over time. Using state-of-the-art methodologies4 and a land carbon-cycle emulator5, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero CO2 timing and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 2100. Our results are important for the Global Stocktake6, suggesting that nations will need to increase the collective ambition of their climate targets to remain consistent with the global temperature goals.

Due to production, usage and disposal of nano-enabled products as well as fragmentation of bulk materials, anthropogenic nanoscale particles (NPs) can enter the natural environment and through different compartments (air, soil and water) end up into the sea. With the continuous increase of production and associated emissions and discharges, they can reach concentrations able to exceed toxicity-thresholds for living species inhabiting marine coastal areas. Behavior and fate of NPs in marine waters are driven by transformation processes occurring as a function of NP intrinsic and extrinsic properties in the receiving seawaters. All those aspects have been overlooked in ecological risk assessment. This review critically reports ecotoxicity studies in which size distribution, surface charges and bio-nanointeractions have been considered for a more realistic risk assessment of NPs in marine environment. Two emerging and relevant NPs, the metal-based titanium dioxide (TiO2), and the polystyrene (PS), a proxy for nanoplastics, are reviewed and their impact on marine biota (from planktonic species to invertebrates and fish) discussed as a function of particle size and surface charges (negative vs positive) which affect their behavior and interaction with the biological material. Uptake of NPs is related to their nanoscale size, however in vivo studies clearly demonstrated that transformation (agglomerates/aggregates) occurring in both artificial and natural seawater drive to different exposure routes and biological responses at cellular and organism level. Adsorption of single particles or agglomerates onto the body surface or their internalization in feces can impair motility and affect sinking or floating behavior with consequences on population and ecological function. Particle complex dynamics in natural seawater is almost unknown although it determines the effective exposure scenarios. Based on the latest predicted environmental concentrations for TiO2 and PS NPs in the marine environment, current knowledge gaps and future research challenges encompass the comprehensive study of bio-nano interactions. As such, the analysis of NP biomolecular coronas can enable a better assessment of particle uptake and related cellular pathways leading to toxic effects. Moreover, the formation of an environmentally-derived corona (i.e. eco-corona) in seawater accounts for NP physical-chemical alterations, rebounding on interaction with living organisms and toxicity.

To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) net carbon sink from forests should increase from the current level of about −360 to −450 Mt CO2eq yr−1 by 2050. Reaching this target requires additional efforts, which should be informed by the expected interactions between current age-class distributions, the effect of forest management practices and the expected impacts of future climate change. However, modelling the combined effect of these drivers is challenging, since it requires a mechanistic assessment of climate impacts on primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration and a detailed representation of the forest age structure and of the management practices across the entire EU. To achieve this goal, we combined the output provided by four land–climate models – run under two different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) – to parameterize the input data used in an empirical forest growth model. This hybrid modelling approach aims to quantify the impact of climate change and forest management on the long-term (i.e. to 2100) evolution of the EU27 + UK forest carbon budget. This approach was tested using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, based on the continuation of the management practices applied by EU member states within the historical period 2000–2015. We emphasize that our study does not explore a specific policy scenario but describes a methodological framework. Our results highlight that, under our BAU case, the EU27 + UK forest C sink would decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr−1 in 2050 and −80 Mt CO2eq yr−1 by 2100. The main driver of the long-term evolution of the forest C sink is the ongoing ageing process of the European forests, mostly determined by past and ongoing management. In addition, climate change may further amplify or mitigate this trend. Due to the large uncertainty in climate projections, in 2050 the net C sink may range from −100 to −400 Mt CO2eq yr−1 under RCP2.6 and from −100 to −300 Mt CO2eq yr−1 under RCP6.0. These results suggest that while a change in management practices would be needed to reverse an otherwise declining trend in the sink, climate change adds a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with management.