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In this paper we present a mathematical analysis of the basic model for target mediated drug disposition (TMDD). Assuming high affinity of ligand to target, we give a qualitative characterisation of ligand versus time graphs for different dosing regimes and derive accurate analytic approximations of different phases in the temporal behaviour of the system. These approximations are used to estimate model parameters, give analytical approximations of such quantities as area under the ligand curve and clearance. We formulate conditions under which a suitably chosen Michaelis–Menten model provides a good approximation of the full TMDD-model over a specified time interval.

Background To increase the chances of finding efficacious anticancer drugs, improve development times and reduce costs, it is of interest to rank test compounds based on their potential for human use as early as possible in the drug development process. In this paper, we present a method for ranking radiosensitizers using preclinical data. Methods We used data from three xenograft mice studies to calibrate a model that accounts for radiation treatment combined with radiosensitizers. A nonlinear mixed effects approach was utilized where between-subject variability and inter-study variability were considered. Using the calibrated model, we ranked three different Ataxia telangiectasia-mutated inhibitors in terms of anticancer activity. The ranking was based on the Tumor Static Exposure (TSE) concept and primarily illustrated through TSE-curves. Results The model described data well and the predicted number of eradicated tumors was in good agreement with experimental data. The efficacy of the radiosensitizers was evaluated for the median individual and the 95% population percentile. Simulations predicted that a total dose of 220 Gy (5 radiation sessions a week for 6 weeks) was required for 95% of tumors to be eradicated when radiation was given alone. When radiation was combined with doses that achieved at least 8 μ g / mL of each radiosensitizer in mouse blood, it was predicted that the radiation dose could be decreased to 50, 65, and 100 Gy, respectively, while maintaining 95% eradication. Conclusions A simulation-based method for calculating TSE-curves was developed, which provides more accurate predictions of tumor eradication than earlier, analytically derived, TSE-curves. The tool we present can potentially be used for radiosensitizer selection before proceeding to subsequent phases of the drug discovery and development process.

A central question in drug discovery is how to select drug candidates from a large number of available compounds. This analysis presents a model-based approach for comparing and ranking combinations of radiation and radiosensitizers. The approach is quantitative and based on the previously-derived Tumor Static Exposure (TSE) concept. Combinations of radiation and radiosensitizers are evaluated based on their ability to induce tumor regression relative to toxicity and other potential costs. The approach is presented in the form of a case study where the objective is to find the most promising candidate out of three radiosensitizing agents. Data from a xenograft study is described using a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach and a previously-published tumor model for radiation and radiosensitizing agents. First, the most promising candidate is chosen under the assumption that all compounds are equally toxic. The impact of toxicity in compound selection is then illustrated by assuming that one compound is more toxic than the others, leading to a different choice of candidate.

A mechanism-based biomarker model of TNFα-response, including different external provocations of LPS challenge and test compound intervention, was developed. The model contained system properties (such as kt, kout), challenge characteristics (such as ks, kLPS, Km, LPS, Smax, SC50) and test-compound-related parameters (Imax, IC50). The exposure to test compound was modelled by means of first-order input and Michaelis–Menten type of nonlinear elimination. Test compound potency was estimated to 20 nM with a 70% partial reduction in TNFα-response at the highest dose of 30 mg·kg−1. Future selection of drug candidates may focus the estimation on potency and efficacy by applying the selected structure consisting of TNFα system and LPS challenge characteristics. A related aim was to demonstrate how an exploratory (graphical) analysis may guide us to a tentative model structure, which enables us to better understand target biology. The analysis demonstrated how to tackle a biomarker with a baseline below the limit of detection. Repeated LPS-challenges may also reveal how the rate and extent of replenishment of TNFα pools occur. Lack of LPS exposure-time courses was solved by including a biophase model, with the underlying assumption that TNFα-response time courses, as such, contain kinetic information. A transduction type of model with non-linear stimulation of TNFα release was finally selected. Typical features of a challenge experiment were shown by means of model simulations. Experimental shortcomings of present and published designs are identified and discussed. The final model coupled to suggested guidance rules may serve as a general basis for the collection and analysis of pharmacological challenge data of future studies.

Cortisol is a steroid hormone relevant to immune function in horses and other species and shows a circadian rhythm. The glucocorticoid dexamethasone suppresses cortisol in horses. Pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is a disease in which the cortisol suppression mechanism through dexamethasone is challenged. Overnight dexamethasone suppression test (DST) protocols are used to test the functioning of this mechanism and to establish a diagnosis for PPID. However, existing DST protocols have been recognized to perform poorly in previous experimental studies, often indicating presence of PPID in healthy horses. This study uses a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling approach to analyse the oscillatory cortisol response and its interaction with dexamethasone. Two existing DST protocols were then scrutinized using model simulations with particular focus on their ability to avoid false positive outcomes. Using a Bayesian population approach allowed for quantification of uncertainty and enabled predictions for a broader population of horses than the underlying sample. Dose selection and sampling time point were both determined to have large influence on the number of false positives. Advice on pitfalls in test protocols and directions for possible improvement of DST protocols were given. The presented methodology is also easily extended to other clinical test protocols.

Drug-discovery has become a complex discipline in which the amount of knowledge about human biology, physiology, and biochemistry have increased. In order to harness this complex body of knowledge mathematics can play a critical role, and has actually already been doing so. We demonstrate through four case studies, taken from previously published data and analyses, what we can gain from mathematical/analytical techniques when nonlinear concentration-time courses have to be transformed into their equilibrium concentration-response (target or complex) relationships and new structures of drug potency have to be deciphered; when pattern recognition needs to be carried out for an unconventional response-time dataset; when what-if? predictions beyond the observational concentration-time range need to be made; or when the behaviour of a semi-mechanistic model needs to be elucidated or challenged. These four examples are typical situations when standard approaches known to the general community of pharmacokineticists prove to be inadequate.

PurposeRadiation therapy, whether given alone or in combination with chemical agents, is one of the cornerstones of oncology. We develop a quantitative model that describes tumor growth during and after treatment with radiation and radiosensitizing agents. The model also describes long-term treatment effects including tumor regrowth and eradication.MethodsWe challenge the model with data from a xenograft study using a clinically relevant administration schedule and use a mixed-effects approach for model-fitting. We use the calibrated model to predict exposure combinations that result in tumor eradication using Tumor Static Exposure (TSE).ResultsThe model is able to adequately describe data from all treatment groups, with the parameter estimates taking biologically reasonable values. Using TSE, we predict the total radiation dose necessary for tumor eradication to be 110 Gy, which is reduced to 80 or 30 Gy with co-administration of 25 or 100 mg kg−1 of a radiosensitizer. TSE is also explored via a heat map of different growth and shrinkage rates. Finally, we discuss the translational potential of the model and TSE concept to humans.ConclusionsThe new model is capable of describing different tumor dynamics including tumor eradication and tumor regrowth with different rates, and can be calibrated using data from standard xenograft experiments. TSE and related concepts can be used to predict tumor shrinkage and eradication, and have the potential to guide new experiments and support translations from animals to humans.

Energy intake (EI) is a pivotal biomarker used in quantification approaches to metabolic disease processes such as obesity, diabetes, and growth disorders. Eating behavior is however under both short-term and long-term control. This control system manifests itself as tolerance and rebound phenomena in EI, when challenged by drug treatment or diet restriction. The paper describes a model with the capability to capture physiological counter-regulatory feedback actions triggered by energy imbalances. This feedback is general as it handles tolerance to both increases and decreases in EI, and works in both acute and chronic settings. A drug mechanism function inhibits (or stimulates) EI. The deviation of EI relative to a reference level (set-point) serves as input to a non-linear appetite control signal which in turn impacts EI in parallel to the drug intervention. Three examples demonstrate the potential usefulness of the model in both acute and chronic dosing situations. The model shifts the predicted concentration–response relationship rightwardly at lower concentrations, in contrast to models that do not handle functional adaptation. A fourth example further shows that the model may qualitatively explain differences in rate and extent of adaptation in observed EI and its concomitants in both rodents and humans.

Radiotherapy is one of the major therapy forms in oncology, and combination therapies involving radiation and chemical compounds can yield highly effective tumor eradication. In this paper, we develop a tumor growth inhibition model for combination therapy with radiation and radiosensitizing agents. Moreover, we extend previous analyses of drug combinations by introducing the tumor static exposure (TSE) curve. The TSE curve for radiation and radiosensitizer visualizes exposure combinations sufficient for tumor regression. The model and TSE analysis are then tested on xenograft data. The calibrated model indicates that the highest dose of combination therapy increases the time until tumor regrowth 10‐fold. The TSE curve shows that with an average radiosensitizer concentration of 1.0 μg/mL the radiation dose can be decreased from 2.2 Gy to 0.7 Gy. Finally, we successfully predict the effect of a clinically relevant treatment schedule, which contributes to validating both the model and the TSE concept.

The increased emphasis on mechanistic and quantitative approaches in pharmacology presents new challenges to the design and analysis of mathematical models used in drug discovery. In this paper we present three of such challenges: (i) How to proceed when exposure data are scarce or plainly absent? Response versus time data for different doses are then the only source of information. (ii) The advent of biological (biologics) therapeutics has resulted in a new class of models which involve the interaction of drug and target. (iii) How to determine the impact of proteins at the target site on drug efficacy? We illustrate these challenges with three case studies.