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This study examined records of 2566 consecutive COVID-19 patients at five Massachusetts hospitals and sought to predict level-of-care requirements based on clinical and laboratory data. Several classification methods were applied and compared against standard pneumonia severity scores. The need for hospitalization, ICU care, and mechanical ventilation were predicted with a validation accuracy of 88%, 87%, and 86%, respectively. Pneumonia severity scores achieve respective accuracies of 73% and 74% for ICU care and ventilation. When predictions are limited to patients with more complex disease, the accuracy of the ICU and ventilation prediction models achieved accuracy of 83% and 82%, respectively. Vital signs, age, BMI, dyspnea, and comorbidities were the most important predictors of hospitalization. Opacities on chest imaging, age, admission vital signs and symptoms, male gender, admission laboratory results, and diabetes were the most important risk factors for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. The factors identified collectively form a signature of the novel COVID-19 disease. The new coronavirus (now named SARS-CoV-2) causing the disease pandemic in 2019 (COVID-19), has so far infected over 35 million people worldwide and killed more than 1 million. Most people with COVID-19 have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. But some become seriously ill and need hospitalization. The sickest are admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and may need mechanical ventilation to help them breath. Being able to predict which patients with COVID-19 will become severely ill could help hospitals around the world manage the huge influx of patients caused by the pandemic and save lives. Now, Hao, Sotudian, Wang, Xu et al. show that computer models using artificial intelligence technology can help predict which COVID-19 patients will be hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, or need mechanical ventilation. Using data of 2,566 COVID-19 patients from five Massachusetts hospitals, Hao et al. created three separate models that can predict hospitalization, ICU admission, and the need for mechanical ventilation with more than 86% accuracy, based on patient characteristics, clinical symptoms, laboratory results and chest x-rays. Hao et al. found that the patients’ vital signs, age, obesity, difficulty breathing, and underlying diseases like diabetes, were the strongest predictors of the need for hospitalization. Being male, having diabetes, cloudy chest x-rays, and certain laboratory results were the most important risk factors for intensive care treatment and mechanical ventilation. Laboratory results suggesting tissue damage, severe inflammation or oxygen deprivation in the body's tissues were important warning signs of severe disease. The results provide a more detailed picture of the patients who are likely to suffer from severe forms of COVID-19. Using the predictive models may help physicians identify patients who appear okay but need closer monitoring and more aggressive treatment. The models may also help policy makers decide who needs workplace accommodations such as being allowed to work from home, which individuals may benefit from more frequent testing, and who should be prioritized for vaccination when a vaccine becomes available.

BackgroundPatients with colorectal cancer are at increased risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to the general population. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors of cardiovascular mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.MethodsA retrospective review of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was performed between 2010 and 2014. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) for cardiovascular mortality were calculated by comparing the number of expected deaths in the United States according to the National Center for Health Statistics (ICD-10 codes I00-I99) to the number of observed deaths in the database. Logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors.ResultsOverall, 164,719 patients were identified (mean age at diagnosis 67 ± 13.9 years, 52.7% males, 47.3% females), of which 4854 (2.9%) died from cardiovascular disease. The majority of cardiovascular deaths occurred during the first year after diagnosis (2658, 54.8%). SMRs for cardiovascular mortality were 11.7 (95% CI 11.3–12) among all patients, 12.1 (95% CI 11.7–12.6) for male patients and 11.1 (95% CI 10.6–11.6) for female patients, with SMRs being higher for younger patients. Older age, male sex, African–American race, elevated CEA and not undergoing curative surgery were independent risk factors of cardiovascular mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.ConclusionPatients with colorectal cancer are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death, especially during the first year after diagnosis. Older age, male sex, African–American race, elevated CEA and not undergoing curative surgery are independent risk factors of cardiovascular death.

we present a rat experimental model used to evaluate the possible reduction in the extent of pancreatic tissue injury in acute pancreatitis cases, after administration of eugenol. one hundred and twenty Wistar rats were used, which were randomly assigned in 3 groups: sham (n=20), control (n=50) and eugenol (n=50). Acute pancreatitis was induced by biliopancreatic ligation in the control and eugenol groups, but not in the Sham group. In the eugenol group, eugenol was administered per-os. Five histopathological parameters, such as edema, inflammatory infiltration, duct dilatation, hemorrhage and acinar necrosis were evaluated. at 72 h from acute pancreatitis induction, the total histological score was diminished in the eugenol group (p<0.0005) and duct dilatation and inflammatory infiltration were reduced compared to the control group (p<0.05). In addition, at 72 h, eugenol reduced pancreatic myeloperoxidase activity (p<0.0005). eugenol, a highly free radical scavenger agent, may have a preventive role in acute pancreatic injury, as it was evident in our rat experimental model.

The anatomical area of the extrahepatic bile ducts exhibits plethora of anatomic variants. The detailed study and comprehension of anatomic variations of extrahepatic bile ducts is a prerequisite in order to avoid the intraoperative biliary or tract damages, but they are also necessary for the targeted treatment of any complications. Gallbladder agenesis is a rare congenital anomaly of the biliary tree with an estimated incidence of 0.007-0.027% in surgical series which is much lower compared to the incidence of other gallbladder anomalies. It may be asymptomatic, but sometimes is associated with symptoms such as upper quadrant abdominal pain, which may be mistaken for cholecystitis and can lead the patient to the operating room. We present a case of a 30-year-old male patient without any significant past medical history presented with a 2-year history of upper abdominal complaints, dyspepsia, epigastric abdominal pain and weight loss, normal laboratory workup and unclear radiological signs which led him to exploratory laparoscopy due to the patient's chronic symptoms, in order to exclude the presence of another underlying pathologic process. In addition to our case presentation, a relative review of literature was conducted. As a conclusion, examinations, such as transabdominal ultrasonography, may be misleading and MCRP should be the principal method of investigation to establish a presumptive diagnosis. However, in cases with a strong suspicion for a different underlying pathology, further investigation with exploratory laparoscopy may be warranted.

BackgroundEmergency departments (EDs) at level 1 trauma centers are often overcrowded and deny ED-to-ED transfers from lower-tiered centers. Lack of access to timely level 1 care is associated with increased mortality. We evaluated the feasibility of a direct admission (DA) protocol as a method to increase timely access to a level 1 trauma center during periods of ED overcrowding.MethodsDuring periods of ED overcrowding between 1 May and 31 December 2019, we admitted patients from referring EDs directly to the intensive care unit (ICU) or inpatient ward using the DA protocol. In a prospective comparative study design, we compared their outcomes to patients during the same period who were admitted through the ED when the ED was not overcrowded.ResultsDuring periods of ED overcrowding, transfer was requested and clinically accepted for 28 patients, of which 23 (82.1%, age 63±20.3 years, men 52.2% men) were successfully admitted via the DA protocol. Five (17.9%) were not successfully transferred due to lack of available inpatient beds. During periods when the ED was not overcrowded, 106 patients (age 62.8±23.1 years, men 52.8%) were admitted via the ED. There were no morbidity or mortality events attributed to the DA process. Time to patient arrival was 2.7 hours (95% CI 2.3 to 3.1) in the DA cohort and 1.9 hours (95% CI 1.5 to 2.4) in the ED-to-ED cohort (p=0.104). Up-triage to the ICU within 24 hours was performed in only one patient (4.3%). In-hospital mortality did not differ (3 (13%) vs. 8 (7.6%), p=0.392).DiscussionThe DA pathway is a feasible method to safely transfer patients from a referring ED to a higher-care trauma center when its ED is overcrowded.Level of evidenceLevel III, care management.

The liver is the most common metastatic site in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). The purpose of this study is to identify the incidence and predictive factors associated with synchronous liver metastases among patients with GISTs. A retrospective review of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was performed. Overall, 2757 patients were identified, of which 276 (10%) had synchronous liver metastases. The two-year survival of patients with synchronous liver metastases was 31.9% overall and 37.1% after undergoing surgery with curative intent. Primary tumor size >5 cm (5–10 cm: OR 2.97, 95% CI: 1.03–8.55, p = 0.044, >10 cm: OR 5.59, 95% CI: 1.95–16.07, p = 0.001), presence of nodal metastases (OR 4.09, 95% CI: 2.01–8.33, p < 0.001) and mitotic count >5/50 HPF (OR 1.58, 95% CI: 1.01–2.47, p = 0.044) were associated with the presence of liver metastases. One out of ten patients with GISTs presents with hepatic metastases. Primary tumor size >5 cm, presence of nodal metastases and mitotic count >5/50 HPF are associated with a higher risk of synchronous hepatic metastases. •10% of patients with GISTs present with synchronous liver metastases.•Two-year survival of these patients is 31.9% overall and 37.1% after undergoing surgery.•Primary tumor location is a predictor of disease-specific survival in patients with synchronous liver metastases.•Tumor size >5 cm, presence of nodal metastases and mitotic count >5 /50 HPF are predictors of synchronous liver metastases.

BackgroundThe prognosis and behavior of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) vary and may be divergent even at the same stage or tumor grade. Markers of systemic inflammatory response are readily available and are inexpensive, and have been shown to be prognostic factors in several cancers.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of markers of systemic inflammatory response in patients with PNETs.MethodsA prospective study of 97 patients with PNETs was performed (median follow-up of 15 months, range 12–73 months). Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (NLRs) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratios (LMRs) were calculated at baseline and preoperatively. The primary outcome measures were progression-free survival (PFS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection.ResultsAmong all patients, an NLR > 2.3 [hazard ratio (HR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–6.08, p = 0.038] and the presence of distant metastases (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.26–6.21, p = 0.012) were independent predictors of disease progression. Among patients who did not undergo surgery during the study period, both platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) > 160.9 (HR 5.86, 95% CI 1.27–27.08, p = 0.023) and mean platelet volume > 10.75 fL (HR 6.63, 95% CI 1.6–27.48, p = 0.009) were independently associated with worse PFS on multivariable analysis. Among patients who underwent complete resection, an LMR < 3.46 was associated with a worse RFS (HR 9.72, 95% CI 1.19–79.42, p = 0.034).ConclusionsPLR > 160.9 and an MPV > 10.75 fL at baseline are independent predictors of disease progression, while an LMR < 3.46 is an independent predictor of tumor recurrence after complete resection in patients with PNETs.

Background Nomograms may be used to quantitatively assess the probability of synchronous distant metastasis. The purpose of this study is to develop predictive nomograms for the presence of synchronous distant metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. Methods A retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database was performed for cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2014. Results Overall, 46,785 patients with rectal cancer (27,773 [59.4%] males, mean age 63.9 ± 13.7 years) were identified, of which 6192 (13.2%) had liver metastasis, 2767 (5.9%) had lung metastasis, and 601 (1.3%) had bone metastasis. Age, sex, race, tumor location, tumor grade, primary tumor size, CEA levels, perineural invasion, T stage, N stage, and liver and lung metastasis were found to be associated with the presence of synchronous distant metastasis and were included in the predictive models. The c-indexes of these models were 0.99 for liver metastasis, 0.99 for lung metastasis, and 1 for bone metastasis. Conclusions Predictive nomograms for the presence of synchronous liver, lung, and bone metastasis were developed and may be used to predict the probability of distant disease in rectal cancer patients.

The incidence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) is increasing. Current staging systems include nodal positivity, but the association of lymph node status and worse survival is controversial. The study aim was to determine the prognostic significance of lymph node ratio (LNR) and compare it with nodal positivity for PNET. A retrospective analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2011 was performed in patients who underwent a pancreatectomy with lymphadenectomy. The primary outcome was disease-specific survival (DSS). Of the 896 patients analyzed, T stage, N stage, distant metastasis, grade, extent of resection, sex, and age ≥57 years were significantly associated with worse DSS on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, age ≥57 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12 to 2.74, P = 0.015], male sex (HR 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01 to 2.48; P = 0.046), grade (poorly differentiated/undifferentiated: HR 7.59; 95% CI, 4.71 to 12.23; P < 0.001), distant metastases (HR 2.45; 95% CI, 1.58 to 3.79; P < 0.001), and partial pancreatectomy (HR 2.55; 95% CI, 1.2 to 5.4; P = 0.015) were associated with worse DSS. Comparison between staging models constructed based on LNR cutoffs and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) eighth edition staging system revealed that a model based on LNR ≥0.5 was superior. LNR ≥0.5 is independently associated with worse DSS. A staging system with LNR ≥0.5 was superior to the current AJCC eighth edition staging system.