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The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players’ and coordinated teams’ behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).

We propose a gradient flow procedure for generative modeling by transporting particles from an initial source distribution to a target distribution, where the gradient field on the particles is given by a noise-adaptive Wasserstein Gradient of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). The noise-adaptive MMD is trained on data distributions corrupted by increasing levels of noise, obtained via a forward diffusion process, as commonly used in denoising diffusion probabilistic models. The result is a generalization of MMD Gradient Flow, which we call Diffusion-MMD-Gradient Flow or DMMD. The divergence training procedure is related to discriminator training in Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), but does not require adversarial training. We obtain competitive empirical performance in unconditional image generation on CIFAR10, MNIST, CELEB-A (64 x64) and LSUN Church (64 x 64). Furthermore, we demonstrate the validity of the approach when MMD is replaced by a lower bound on the KL divergence.

Speculative sampling is a popular technique for accelerating inference in Large Language Models by generating candidate tokens using a fast draft model and accepting or rejecting them based on the target model's distribution. While speculative sampling was previously limited to discrete sequences, we extend it to diffusion models, which generate samples via continuous, vector-valued Markov chains. In this context, the target model is a high-quality but computationally expensive diffusion model. We propose various drafting strategies, including a simple and effective approach that does not require training a draft model and is applicable out of the box to any diffusion model. Our experiments demonstrate significant generation speedup on various diffusion models, halving the number of function evaluations, while generating exact samples from the target model.

We present a simple, yet powerful data-augmentation technique to enable data-efficient learning from parametric experts for reinforcement and imitation learning. We focus on what we call the policy cloning setting, in which we use online or offline queries of an expert or expert policy to inform the behavior of a student policy. This setting arises naturally in a number of problems, for instance as variants of behavior cloning, or as a component of other algorithms such as DAGGER, policy distillation or KL-regularized RL. Our approach, augmented policy cloning (APC), uses synthetic states to induce feedback-sensitivity in a region around sampled trajectories, thus dramatically reducing the environment interactions required for successful cloning of the expert. We achieve highly data-efficient transfer of behavior from an expert to a student policy for high-degrees-of-freedom control problems. We demonstrate the benefit of our method in the context of several existing and widely used algorithms that include policy cloning as a constituent part. Moreover, we highlight the benefits of our approach in two practically relevant settings (a) expert compression, i.e. transfer to a student with fewer parameters; and (b) transfer from privileged experts, i.e. where the expert has a different observation space than the student, usually including access to privileged information.

We explore a class of supervised training objectives that allow a language model to dynamically and autonomously scale the number of compute steps used for each input token. For any token, the model can request additional compute steps by emitting a output. If the model is granted a delay, a specialized token is inserted at the next input step, providing the model with additional compute resources to generate an output. The model can request multiple pauses. To train the model to use outputs judiciously and to calibrate its uncertainty, we frame the selection of each output token as a sequential-decision problem with a time cost. We refer to the class of methods as \\(\\textit{Catch Your Breath}\\) losses and we study three methods in this class: CYB-AP frames the model's task as anytime prediction, where an output may be required at any step and accuracy is discounted over time; CYB-VA is a variational approach that aims to maximize prediction accuracy subject to a specified distribution over stopping times; and CYB-DP imposes a penalty based on a computational budget. Through fine-tuning experiments, we identify the best performing loss variant. The CYB model needs only one third as much training data as the baseline (no pause) model needs to achieve the same performance, and half as much data as a model with pauses and a cross-entropy loss. We find that the CYB model requests additional steps when doing so improves accuracy, and the model adapts its processing time to token-level complexity and context. For example, it often pauses after plural nouns like \\(\\textit{patients}\\) and \\(\\textit{challenges}\\) but never pauses after the first token of contracted words like \\(\\textit{wasn}\\) and \\(\\textit{didn}\\), and it shows high variability for ambiguous tokens like \\(\\textit{won}\\), which could function as either a verb or part of a contraction.

Neural networks are typically optimized with variants of stochastic gradient descent. Under a squared loss, however, the optimal solution to the linear last layer weights is known in closed-form. We propose to leverage this during optimization, treating the last layer as a function of the backbone parameters, and optimizing solely for these parameters. We show this is equivalent to alternating between gradient descent steps on the backbone and closed-form updates on the last layer. We adapt the method for the setting of stochastic gradient descent, by trading off the loss on the current batch against the accumulated information from previous batches. Further, we prove that, in the Neural Tangent Kernel regime, convergence of this method to an optimal solution is guaranteed. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared with standard SGD on a squared loss in several supervised tasks -- both regression and classification -- including Fourier Neural Operators and Instrumental Variable Regression.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a widely used technique for improving the perceptual quality of samples from conditional diffusion models. It operates by linearly combining conditional and unconditional score estimates using a guidance weight \\(\\omega\\). While a large, static weight can markedly improve visual results, this often comes at the cost of poorer distributional alignment. In order to better approximate the target conditional distribution, we instead learn guidance weights \\(\\omega_{c,(s,t)}\\), which are continuous functions of the conditioning \\(c\\), the time \\(t\\) from which we denoise, and the time \\(s\\) towards which we denoise. We achieve this by minimizing the distributional mismatch between noised samples from the true conditional distribution and samples from the guided diffusion process. We extend our framework to reward guided sampling, enabling the model to target distributions tilted by a reward function \\(R(x_0,c)\\), defined on clean data and a conditioning \\(c\\). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology on low-dimensional toy examples and high-dimensional image settings, where we observe improvements in Fréchet inception distance (FID) for image generation. In text-to-image applications, we observe that employing a reward function given by the CLIP score leads to guidance weights that improve image-prompt alignment.

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively \"denoises\" a Gaussian sample into a sample from the data distribution. However, generating high-quality outputs requires many discretization steps to obtain a faithful approximation of the reverse process. This is expensive and has motivated the development of many acceleration methods. We propose to accomplish sample generation by learning the posterior {\\em distribution} of clean data samples given their noisy versions, instead of only the mean of this distribution. This allows us to sample from the probability transitions of the reverse process on a coarse time scale, significantly accelerating inference with minimal degradation of the quality of the output. This is accomplished by replacing the standard regression loss used to estimate conditional means with a scoring rule. We validate our method on image and robot trajectory generation, where we consistently outperform standard diffusion models at few discretization steps.

Neural networks are traditionally trained under the assumption that data come from a stationary distribution. However, settings which violate this assumption are becoming more popular; examples include supervised learning under distributional shifts, reinforcement learning, continual learning and non-stationary contextual bandits. In this work we introduce a novel learning approach that automatically models and adapts to non-stationarity, via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an adaptive drift parameter. The adaptive drift tends to draw the parameters towards the initialisation distribution, so the approach can be understood as a form of soft parameter reset. We show empirically that our approach performs well in non-stationary supervised and off-policy reinforcement learning settings.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.