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"Galbreath, David"
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Evolving Dynamics of Societal Security and the Potential for Conflict in Eastern Ukraine
In this essay we argue that changes in political structures in post-Soviet Ukraine have affected the potential for conflict during transition. Relying on organisational theory to determine the potential for conflict in Ukraine, we argue that this potential is structurally determined by the changing character of societal relations within and beyond Ukraine. The potential for conflict was always present in post-Soviet Ukraine, but this essay examines the facts of when, how and why conflict happened, and how it was related to weak state institutions, centre-periphery relations and an unsettled relationship with Russia. Relying on our analytical framework, we conclude that the conditions for further conflict greatly outweigh the conditions for peace.
Journal Article
Combining regression and mixed-integer programming to model counterinsurgency
Counterinsurgencies are a type of violent struggle between state and non-state actors in which one group attempts to gain or maintain influence over a certain portion of the population. When an insurgency (i.e., non-state actor) challenges a host nation (i.e., state actor), often an external counterinsurgent force intervenes. While researchers have categorized insurgencies with social science techniques and United States Army doctrine has established possible counterinsurgency strategies, little research prescribes host nation and counterinsurgent force strength. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer program to provide an estimate of the number of forces required to maximize the probability of a favorable resolution to the counterinsurgent and host nation countries, while minimizing unfavorable resolutions and the number of counterinsurgent deaths. This program integrates: (i) a multivariate piecewise-linear regression model to estimate the number of counterinsurgent deaths each year and (ii) a logistic regression model to estimate the probability of four types of conflict resolution over a 15-year time horizon. Constraints in the model characterize: (i) upper and lower limits on the number of counterinsurgent and host nation forces and their annual rates of increase and decrease, (ii) the characteristics of the type of counterinsurgency, (iii) an estimation of the number of counterinsurgent deaths, and (iv) an estimation of the probability of one of four resolutions. We use Somalia as a case study to estimate how counterinsurgent strategies affect the probability of obtaining each conflict resolution. We conclude that a strategy focusing on building and empowering a stable host nation force provides the highest probability of achieving a positive resolution to the counterinsurgency. Senior leaders can use this information to guide strategic decisions within a counterinsurgency.
Journal Article
Crimea: Competing Self-Determination Movements and the Politics at the Centre
While the breakup of Yugoslavia produced divided loyalties and competing claims, leading to the establishment of seven separate states ending with the de facto independence of Kosovo, Crimea was a source of geopolitical instability that threatened to engulf the region in ethnic and geopolitical conflict. As a result of the negotiations during the 1990s and a de facto settlement between Slavs and the Ukrainian state, between Slavs and returning Crimean Tatars, and between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, Crimea has remained a peaceful and even increasingly wealthy area of Ukraine. Reflecting on the case of Kosovo, this paper looks at the prospect for a similar conflict in and over Crimea. Our primary question concerns the degree to which the Kosovo case sheds light on a somewhat similar case of co-ethnics, religious differences and a weakened state. We argue that the greatest source of instability lies not with ethnic claims or geopolitics, but with Ukrainian political and commercial interests that threaten the de facto settlement between the region and the centre.
Journal Article
European organizations and minority rights in Europe: On transforming the securitization dynamic
Minority rights conditionality has been seen by scholars as a key part of the EU enlargement process. While the focus on minority rights has largely been discussed in terms of democracy and even human rights, this article argues that conditionality was a result of the securitization of minorities rather than part of an agenda to protect or empower. In this article, we look at the methods of desecuritization as factors of 'narratives, norms and nannies'. In response to Paul Roe's conclusions about the impossibility of desecuritizing societal security, we examine whether the EU, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe have the ability to change the societal dynamics among ethnic groups in such a way as to make the desecuritization of societal security more likely. Overall, we illustrate how a focus on 'deconstructivist' and 'constructivist' approaches to societal security has failed to make European organizations important transformative actors in interethnic relations.
Journal Article
Securitizing Democracy and Democratic Security: A Reflection on Democratization Studies
The invasion of Iraq and the subsequent attempt to engineer a democratic state highlights the strengths and limitations of democratization studies to explain why, where, and how democracy occurs. This article argues that the way power is played out globally and locally determines the nature of democratic success or failure. Traditionally, democratization studies has focused on internal structures and agents of change. However, Iraq indicates that democratization is more complex than traditional comparative politics approaches have ascribed it. In this article, there are two key propositions. Firstly, global power-holders do not hold the exclusive ability to bring about democratization, but the drive for democratization is shaped by the display of power and disputes over global authority at least as much, if not more, than national-level politics. Secondly, the display of power internally determines two key dimensions of democratization: state capacity and societal security. This article relies on the example of Iraq to illustrate the shortcomings of the traditional approach to democratization and calls on a reinvigorated interdisciplinary approach to why democratization succeeds or fails.
Journal Article
Cooperation or Conflict
Following the end of the Second World War, the creation of regional organizations in Europe provided niche functions to help ensure regional stability through security and transition. Yet, as the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union dissolved, each of these organizations evolved to have a post-Cold War role in the region. Since then, the level of convergence of norms, interests and objectives between these main regional organizations has increased considerably. Is there a common agenda in Europe? Does Europe still need so many organizational elements to tackle the major challenges? This book examines the way the EU, NATO, OSCE, and Council of Europe relate to and interact with each other, identifying the areas of positive convergence and divergence as well as areas of negative cooperation and conflict. By tracing the institutional development and regional integration in Europe, the book questions to what degree do European organizations maintain separate identities and most importantly do these organizations still offer a unique and useful service to regional stability. In developing this argument, policy areas analysed include: \"
eBook
Latvian Foreign Policy after Enlargement: Continuity and Change
Latvia's transition from Soviet republic to restored nation-state has been most clearly seen in the transition to democracy and the market economy. Externally, however, the Baltic State has had to negotiate complex challenges in both the local and wider security complex. In this essay I argue that the development and evolution of Latvian foreign policy illustrates a transition to post-existential politics and illuminates the nature of geo-politics in the Baltic subregion in general. Initially, Latvia had to create a foreign policy agenda with limited resources such as knowledge and capacity. The 1995 Latvian foreign policy guidelines formally established the move to the 'West' generally as well as membership of the EU and NATO specifically. The guidelines show that the nature of insecurity in the region was by and large dictated by Russian dominance and political transition. With the accession into the EU and NATO, we can see that Latvia's foreign policy objectives have shifted away from balancing in the subregion to integration in the larger security architecture. This includes fulfilling the niche capabilities in the North Atlantic infrastructure as well as engaging with other post-Soviet States as they move towards the 'West'. Furthermore, Latvia's objectives have moved beyond the subregion to include military missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. Overall, I argue that a review of Latvia's foreign policy development illustrates the evolving nature of cooperation and conflict on the threshold between East and West.
Journal Article
Continuity and change in the Baltic Sea Region : comparing foreign policies
Continuity and Change in the Baltic Sea Region uncovers the Baltic States' foreign policy transition from Socialist Republics to EU member-states. Situated between the Russian Federation and Northern Europe, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have had to manoeuvre within an often delicate sub-region. Since independence, the foreign policies of the Baltic States have been dominated by de-Sovietization and European integration. Lying at the crossroads between small state theory and identity politics, this analysis engages with the development of Baltic foreign policies as post-Soviet, small and transitioning states. The authors argue that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania dictated their early foreign policy agendas based on a process of identity construction and as a response to their regional environment. This process took the Baltic States from East to West in their foreign policy aspirations. Key factors in foreign policy making and implementation are discussed, as well as external factors that shaped Baltic foreign policy agendas. Overall, the book illustrates how continuity and change in the Baltic foreign policies has been shaped by both 'hard' and 'soft' factors. It is a study in the foreign policies of transitioning states and in this regard illuminates a much larger research area beyond its geographic focus.
eBook