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Originating in econometrics and statistics, the counterfactual model provides a natural framework for clarifying the requirements for valid causal inference in the social sciences. This article presents the basic potential outcomes model and discusses the main approaches to identification in social science research. It then addresses approaches to the statistical estimation of treatment effects either under unconfoundedness or in the presence of unmeasured heterogeneity. As an update to Winship & Morgan's (1999) earlier review, the article summarizes the more recent literature that is characterized by a broader range of estimands of interest, a renewed interest in exploiting experimental and quasi-experimental designs, and important progress in the areas of semi- and nonparametric estimation of treatment effects, difference-in-differences estimation, and instrumental variable estimation. The review concludes by highlighting implications of the recent econometric and statistical literature for sociological research practice.

This article uses panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) for a comparative analysis of workers' post-unemployment earnings trajectories in the United States and 12 Western European countries. Across the study sample of industrialized countries, results of difference-in-difference propensity score matching show post-unemployment earnings losses to be largely permanent and particularly significant for high-wage and older workers as well as for women. The analyses also show that negative effects of unemployment on workers' subsequent earnings are mitigated through either generous unemployment benefit systems or strict labor market regulation. These effects stem partly from favorable behavioral responses that prevent downward occupational and industrial mobility and partly from changes in the overall structure of labor markets favoring the transferability of worker skills between jobs. These positive effects materialize despite the fact that labor market policies tend to successfully protect the core work force from experiencing a job loss in the first place.

Scholars argue that gender culture, understood as a set of beliefs, norms, and social expectations defining masculinities and femininities, plays an important role in shaping when romantic relationships end. However, the relevance of gender culture is often underappreciated, in part because its empirical identification remains elusive. This study leverages cross-country variation in gender norms to test the hypothesis that gender culture conditions which heterosexual romantic relationships end and when. We analyze the extent to which male-breadwinning norms determine the association between men’s unemployment and couple separation. Using harmonized household panel data for married and cohabiting heterosexual couples in 29 countries from 2004 to 2014, our results provide robust evidence that male-breadwinner norms are a key driver of the association between men’s unemployment and the risk of separation. The magnitude of this mechanism is sizeable; an increase of one standard deviation in male-breadwinner norms increases the odds of separation associated with men’s unemployment by 32 percent. Analyses also show that the importance of male-breadwinner norms is strongest among couples for whom the male-breadwinner identity is most salient, namely married couples. By directly measuring and leveraging variation in the key explanatory of interest, gender culture, our study offers novel and robust evidence reinforcing the importance of gender norms to understand when romantic relationships end.

Using harmonized longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we trace career prospects after motherhood for five cohorts of American, British, and West German women around the 1960s. We establish wage penalties for motherhood between 9% and 18% per child, with wage losses among American and British mothers being lower than those experienced by mothers in Germany. Labor market mechanisms generating the observed wage penalty for motherhood differ markedly across countries, however. For British and American women, work interruptions and subsequent mobility into mother-friendly jobs fully account for mothers' wage losses. In contrast, respective penalties are considerably smaller in Germany, yet we observe a substantial residual wage penalty that is unaccounted for by mothers' observable labor market behavior. We interpret this finding as indicating a comparatively more pronounced role for statistical discrimination against mothers in the German labor market.

The authors investigate the relationship between family policy and women's attachment to the labor market, focusing specifically on policy feedback on women's subjective work commitment. They utilize a quasi-experimental design to identify normative policy effects from changes in mothers' work commitment in conjunction with two policy changes that significantly extended the length of statutory parental leave entitlements in Germany. Using unique survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and difference-in-differences, triple-differenced, and instrumental variables estimators for panel data, they obtain consistent empirical evidence that increasing generosity of leave entitlements led to a decline in mothers' work commitment in both East and West Germany. They also probe potential mediating mechanisms and find strong evidence for role exposure and norm setting effects. Finally, they demonstrate that policy-induced shifts in mothers' preferences have contributed to. retarding women's labor force participation after childbirth in Germany, especially as far as mothers' return to full-time employment is concerned.

Abstract We examine how parental unemployment affects children’s transition to postsecondary education in different institutional contexts. Drawing on theoretical perspectives in intergenerational mobility research and sociology of higher education, we estimate the extent to which these intergenerational effects depend on social and education policies. We use data from five longitudinal surveys to analyze the effects of parental unemployment on entry to postsecondary education in 21 countries. The results of multilevel regression analysis show that in contexts that provide better insurance against unemployment, in terms of generous earnings replacement, the adverse effect of parental unemployment is alleviated. Moreover, entry gaps between youth from unemployed and employed households are smaller in tertiary education systems with more opportunity-equalizing education policies that provide more financial support to students and reduce the role of private expenditure. Some evidence also indicates that policies are more relevant for children of less-educated unemployed parents.

We examine the impact of parental unemployment and regional labour market conditions on the probability of a successful transition from non-academic secondary schooling to vocational training in Germany, using data from the National Educational Panel Study and multilevel logistic regression models. Although widely regarded as a low-cost, low-risk and high-gain vocational path, we nevertheless find a clear negative effect of parental unemployment on adolescents’ chances of entering an apprenticeship contract. We test for poorer school performance, reduced household income, reduced self-esteem and limited access to labour market information as potential mediators of the effect, and only find support for some limited impact of economic deprivation. However, we also show that in families where one parent has experienced unemployment shortly before the child’s own transition from secondary schooling, students’ chances of a successful transition depend much more strongly on regional labour market conditions than in families without parental experiences of unemployment. Even in a regulated transition system like Germany’s, adverse labour market conditions thus reinforce the intergenerational disadvantages induced by parental unemployment.

In this commentary, we use the example of the German transfer system and its recent changes to assess consequences of benefit design for social inequalities in times of changing labour markets. Based on the rich literature on the so-called ‘Hartz-IV reforms’ in the early 2000s, we argue that while producing winners and losers, the immediate consequences of benefit reforms in Germany for the generosity of transfers were modest. However, the reforms did change some of the basic design principles of the transfer system. While it is still debated to what extent the reforms of the transfer system can explain the combination of decreasing unemployment and increasing labour market inequalities, they certainly modified the institutional context in a way that fundamentally altered the preconditions for the politics of combating inequality. Thus, the German experience offers an interesting example for assessing both intended and unintended consequences of benefit reforms.

The article examines whether, through supporting workers' search for adequate reemployment, the decommodification achieved by welfare state transfers reduces the longer-run scar effects of unemployment. Drawing on employment history data from the Survey of Income & Program Participation & the German Socio-Economic Panel, the analysis establishes positive effects of unemployment benefits on workers' post-unemployment jobs: workers' risks of incurring severe earnings losses, of experiencing occupational mobility, & of entering unstable job arrangements are considerably reduced in both the US & West Germany. As workers face constrained choices in labor markets, however, this institutional protection of workers' economic status comes at the economic cost of prolonged unemployment. Simulation analyses suggest that higher benefit coverage alone might account for up to 20% of the smaller cumulative disadvantages associated with unemployment for German workers. 4 Tables, 2 Figures, 3 Appendixes, 94 References. Adapted from the source document.