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End-stage kidney disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prevalence of the disease and worldwide use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) are expected to rise sharply in the next decade. We aimed to quantify estimates of this burden. We systematically searched Medline for observational studies and renal registries, and contacted national experts to obtain RRT prevalence data. We used Poisson regression to estimate the prevalence of RRT for countries without reported data. We estimated the gap between needed and actual RRT, and projected needs to 2030. In 2010, 2·618 million people received RRT worldwide. We estimated the number of patients needing RRT to be between 4·902 million (95% CI 4·438–5·431 million) in our conservative model and 9·701 million (8·544–11·021 million) in our high-estimate model, suggesting that at least 2·284 million people might have died prematurely because RRT could not be accessed. We noted the largest treatment gaps in low-income countries, particularly Asia (1·907 million people needing but not receiving RRT; conservative model) and Africa (432 000 people; conservative model). Worldwide use of RRT is projected to more than double to 5·439 million (3·899–7·640 million) people by 2030, with the most growth in Asia (0·968 million to a projected 2·162 million [1·571–3·014 million]). The large number of people receiving RRT and the substantial number without access to it show the need to both develop low-cost treatments and implement effective population-based prevention strategies. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Since the first living-donor kidney transplantation in 1954, more than half a million living kidney donations have occurred and research has advanced knowledge about long-term donor outcomes. Donors in developed countries have a similar life expectancy and quality of life as healthy non-donors. Living kidney donation is associated with an increased risk of end-stage renal disease, although this outcome is uncommon (<0·5% increase in incidence at 15 years). Kidney donation seems to elevate the risks of gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia. Many donors incur financial expenses due to factors such as lost wages, need for sick days, and travel expenses. Yet, most donors have no regrets about donation. Living kidney donation is practised ethically when informed consent incorporates information about risks, uncertainty about outcomes is acknowledged when it exists, and a donor's risks are proportional to benefits for the donor and recipient. Future research should determine whether outcomes are similar for donors from developing countries and donors with pre-existing conditions such as obesity.

AbstractObjectiveTo determine whether electronic health record alerts for acute kidney injury would improve patient outcomes of mortality, dialysis, and progression of acute kidney injury.DesignDouble blinded, multicenter, parallel, randomized controlled trial.SettingSix hospitals (four teaching and two non-teaching) in the Yale New Haven Health System in Connecticut and Rhode Island, US, ranging from small community hospitals to large tertiary care centers.Participants6030 adult inpatients with acute kidney injury, as defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine criteria.InterventionsAn electronic health record based “pop-up” alert for acute kidney injury with an associated acute kidney injury order set upon provider opening of the patient’s medical record.Main outcome measuresA composite of progression of acute kidney injury, receipt of dialysis, or death within 14 days of randomization. Prespecified secondary outcomes included outcomes at each hospital and frequency of various care practices for acute kidney injury.Results6030 patients were randomized over 22 months. The primary outcome occurred in 653 (21.3%) of 3059 patients with an alert and in 622 (20.9%) of 2971 patients receiving usual care (relative risk 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.13, P=0.67). Analysis by each hospital showed worse outcomes in the two non-teaching hospitals (n=765, 13%), where alerts were associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome (relative risk 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.98, P=0.006). More deaths occurred at these centers (15.6% in the alert group v 8.6% in the usual care group, P=0.003). Certain acute kidney injury care practices were increased in the alert group but did not appear to mediate these outcomes.ConclusionsAlerts did not reduce the risk of our primary outcome among patients in hospital with acute kidney injury. The heterogeneity of effect across clinical centers should lead to a re-evaluation of existing alerting systems for acute kidney injury.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02753751.

INTRODUCTIONAcute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are common in hospitalized patients. To inform clinical decision making, more accurate information regarding risk of long-term progression to kidney failure is required.METHODSWe enrolled 1538 hospitalized patients in a multicenter, prospective cohort study. Monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1/CCL2), uromodulin (UMOD), and YKL-40 (CHI3L1) were measured in urine samples collected during outpatient follow-up at 3 months. We followed patients for a median of 4.3 years and assessed the relationship between biomarker levels and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and the development of a composite kidney outcome (CKD incidence, CKD progression, or end-stage renal disease). We paired these clinical studies with investigations in mouse models of renal atrophy and renal repair to further understand the molecular basis of these markers in kidney disease progression.RESULTSHigher MCP-1 and YKL-40 levels were associated with greater eGFR decline and increased incidence of the composite renal outcome, whereas higher UMOD levels were associated with smaller eGFR declines and decreased incidence of the composite kidney outcome. A multimarker score increased prognostic accuracy and reclassification compared with traditional clinical variables alone. The mouse model of renal atrophy showed greater Ccl2 and Chi3l1 mRNA expression in infiltrating macrophages and neutrophils, respectively, and evidence of progressive renal fibrosis compared with the repair model. The repair model showed greater Umod expression in the loop of Henle and correspondingly less fibrosis.CONCLUSIONSBiomarker levels at 3 months after hospitalization identify patients at risk for kidney disease progression.FUNDINGNIH.

This study examined risk associations calibrated to the U.S. population-level incidence of end-stage renal disease and death and projected long-term incidences of ESRD. Risk projections among nondonors were lower than 15-year observed risks after donation. Nearly 30,000 people worldwide become living kidney donors each year. 1 – 3 Traditionally, living donors have been selected on the basis of an absence of risk factors for poor outcomes after donation and without a comprehensive assessment of individualized long-term risk. Although kidney donation is considered to be safe in healthy, low-risk persons, donation has lifelong implications, and the most direct effect may be an increased long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). 4 – 7 A tool to predict a donor candidate’s long-term risk of ESRD that incorporates the combined effect of multiple demographic and health characteristics before donation could help make . . .

Many respiratory tract infections are treated with macrolide antibiotics. Regulatory agencies warn that these antibiotics increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmia. We examined the 30-day risk of ventricular arrhythmia and all-cause mortality associated with macrolide antibiotics relative to nonmacrolide antibiotics. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study involving older adults (age > 65 yr) with a new prescription for an oral macrolide antibiotic (azithromycin, clarithromycin or erythromycin) in Ontario from 2002 to 2013. Our primary outcome was a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia within 30 days after a new prescription. Our secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. We matched patients 1:1 using propensity scores to patients prescribed nonmacrolide antibiotics (amoxicillin, cefuroxime or levofloxacin). We used conditional logistic regression to measure the association between macrolide exposure and outcomes, and repeated the analysis in 4 subgroups defined by the presence or absence of chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and concurrent use of a drug known to prolong the QT interval. Compared with nonmacrolide antibiotics, macrolide antibiotics were not associated with a higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia (0.03% v. 0.03%; relative risk [RR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–1.36) and were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (0.62% v. 0.76%; RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.86). These associations were similar in all subgroups. Among older adults, macrolide antibiotics were not associated with a higher 30-day risk of ventricular arrhythmia than nonmacrolide antibiotics. These findings suggest that current warnings from the US Food and Drug Administration may be overstated.

Survivors of severe acute kidney injury remain at high risk of death well after apparent recovery from the initial insult. Here we determine whether early nephrology follow-up after a hospitalization complicated by severe acute kidney injury associates with patient survival. This consisted of a cohort study of all hospitalized adults in Ontario from 1996 to 2008 with acute kidney injury who received temporary inpatient dialysis and survived for 90 days following discharge independent from dialysis. Propensity scores were used to match individuals with early nephrology follow-up, defined as a visit with a nephrologist within 90 days of discharge, to those without. The outcome was time to all-cause mortality of 3877 patients who met the eligibility criteria within a maximum follow-up of 2 years. A total of 1583 patients had early nephrology follow-up of whom 1184 were successfully matched 1:1 to those not receiving early follow-up. The incidence of all-cause mortality was lower in those patients with early nephrology follow-up compared with those without (8.4 compared with 10.6 per 100-patient years, hazard ratio 0.76 (95% CI: 0.62–0.93)). Thus, early nephrology follow-up after hospitalization with acute kidney injury and temporary dialysis was associated with improved survival. This finding requires definitive testing in a randomized controlled trial.

Knowing a person’s fracture risk according to their kidney function, gender, and age may influence clinical management and decision-making. Using healthcare databases from Ontario, Canada, we conducted a cohort study of 679,114 adults of 40 years and over (mean age 62 years) stratified at cohort entry by estimated glomerular filtration rate ((eGFR) 60 and over, 45–59, 30–44, 15–29, and under 15ml/min per 1.73m2), gender, and age (40–65 and over 65 years). The primary outcome was the 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture (proportion of adults who fractured (hip, forearm, pelvis, or proximal humerus) at least once within 3-years of follow-up). Additional analyses examined the fracture incidence per 1000 person-years, hip fracture alone, stratification by prior fracture, stratification by eGFR and proteinuria, and 3-year cumulative incidence of falls with hospitalization. The 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture significantly increased in a graded manner in adults with a lower eGFR for both genders and both age groups. The 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture in women over 65 years of age across the 5 eGFR groups were 4.3%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 7.8%, and 9.6%, respectively. Corresponding estimates for men over 65 years were 1.6%, 2.0%, 2.7%, 3.8%, and 5.0%, respectively. Similar graded relationships were found for falls with hospitalization and additional analyses. Thus, many adults with chronic kidney disease will fall and fracture. Results can be used for prognostication and guidance of sample size requirements for fracture prevention trials.

In patients with severe acute kidney injury (AKI) but no urgent indication for renal replacement therapy (RRT), the optimal time to initiate RRT remains controversial. While starting RRT preemptively may have benefits, this may expose patients to unnecessary RRT. To study this, we conducted a 12-center open-label pilot trial of critically ill adults with volume replete severe AKI. Patients were randomized to accelerated (12 h or less from eligibility) or standard RRT initiation. Outcomes were adherence to protocol-defined time windows for RRT initiation (primary), proportion of eligible patients enrolled, follow-up to 90 days, and safety in 101 fully eligible patients (57 with sepsis) with a mean age of 63 years. Median serum creatinine and urine output at enrollment were 268 micromoles/l and 356 ml per 24 h, respectively. In the accelerated arm, all patients commenced RRT and 45/48 did so within 12 h from eligibility (median 7.4 h). In the standard arm, 33 patients started RRT at a median of 31.6 h from eligibility, of which 19 did not receive RRT (6 died and 13 recovered kidney function). Clinical outcomes were available for all patients at 90 days following enrollment, with mortality 38% in the accelerated and 37% in the standard arm. Two surviving patients, both randomized to standard RRT initiation, were still RRT dependent at day 90. No safety signal was evident in either arm. Our findings can inform the design of a large-scale effectiveness randomized control trial.

Gabapentin is an effective treatment for chronic neuropathic pain but may cause dizziness, drowsiness, and confusion in some older adults. The goal of this study was to assess the association between gabapentin dosing and adverse outcomes by obtaining estimates of the 30-day risk of hospitalization with altered mental status and mortality in older adults (mean age 76 years) in Ontario, Canada initiated on high dose (>600 mg/day; n = 34,159) compared to low dose (≤600 mg/day; n = 76,025) oral gabapentin in routine outpatient care. A population-based, retrospective cohort study assessing new gabapentin use between 2002 to 2014 was conducted. The primary outcome was 30-day hospitalization with an urgent head computed tomography (CT) scan in the absence of evidence of stroke (a proxy for altered mental status). The secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. The baseline characteristics measured in the two dose groups were similar. Initiation of a high versus low dose of gabapentin was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization with head CT scan (1.27% vs. 1.06%, absolute risk difference 0.21%, adjusted relative risk 1.29 [95% CI 1.14 to 1.46], number needed to treat 477) but not a statistically significant higher risk of mortality (1.25% vs. 1.16%, absolute risk difference of 0.09%, adjusted relative risk of 1.01 [95% CI 0.89 to 1.14]). Overall, the risk of being hospitalized with altered mental status after initiating gabapentin remains low, but may be reduced through the judicious use of gabapentin, use of the lowest dose to control pain, and vigilance for early signs of altered mental status.