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ABSTRACT We present EXOFAST, a fast, robust suite of routines written in IDL that is designed to fit exoplanetary transits and radial velocity variations simultaneously or separately and characterize the parameter uncertainties and covariances with a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We describe how our code incorporates both data sets to derive simultaneously stellar parameters along with the transit and RV parameters, resulting in more self-consistent results on an example fit of the discovery data of HAT-P-3b that is well-mixed in under 5 minutes on a standard desktop computer. We describe in detail how our code works and outline ways in which the code can be extended to include additional effects or generalized for the characterization of other data sets-including non-planetary data sets. We discuss the pros and cons of several common ways to parameterize eccentricity, highlight a subtle mistake in the implementation of MCMC that could bias the inferred eccentricity of intrinsically circular orbits to significantly non-zero results, discuss a problem with IDL's built-in random number generator in its application to large MCMC fits, and derive a method to analytically fit the linear and quadratic limb darkening coefficients of a planetary transit. Finally, we explain how we achieved improved accuracy and over a factor of 100 improvement in the execution time of the transit model calculation. Our entire source code, along with an easy-to-use online interface for several basic features of our transit and radial velocity fitting, are available online at http://astroutils.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/exofast.

As the quality and quantity of astrophysical data continue to improve, the precision with which certain astrophysical events can be timed becomes limited not by the data themselves, but by the manner, standard, and uniformity with which time itself is referenced. While some areas of astronomy (most notably pulsar studies) have required absolute time stamps with precisions of considerably better than 1 minute for many decades, recently new areas have crossed into this regime. In particular, in the exoplanet community, we have found that the (typically unspecified) time standards adopted by various groups can differ by as much as a minute. Left uncorrected, this ambiguity may be mistaken for transit timing variations and bias eccentricity measurements. We argue that, since the commonly-used Julian Date, as well as its heliocentric and barycentric counterparts, can be specified in several time standards, it is imperative that their time standards always be reported when accuracies of 1 minute are required. We summarize the rationale behind our recommendation to quote the site arrival time, in addition to usingBJDTDB BJD TDB , the Barycentric Julian Date in the Barycentric Dynamical Time standard for any astrophysical event. TheBJDTDB BJD TDB is the most practical absolute time stamp for extraterrestrial phenomena, and is ultimately limited by the properties of the target system. We compile a general summary of factors that must be considered in order to achieve timing precisions ranging from 15 minutes to 1 µs. Finally, we provide software tools that, in principal, allow one to calculateBJDTDB BJD TDB to a precision of 1 μs for any target from anywhere on Earth or from any spacecraft.

The giant planet KELT-9b has a dayside temperature of about 4,600 K, which is sufficiently high to dissociate molecules and to evaporate its atmosphere, owing to its hot stellar host. Hot Jupiter-like exoplanet Hot Jupiters are exoplanets that are physically similar to Jupiter, but are strongly irradiated by their host stars. Until now, the most extreme example was WASP-33b, but its atmosphere is still cool enough to contain molecules. Scott Gaudi et al . report the discovery of KELT-9b, which has a dayside temperature of about 4,600 kelvin. This is sufficiently high to dissociate molecules, so the primary sources of opacity in the dayside atmosphere of KELT-9b are probably atomic metals. The atmosphere might be evaporated before the host star reaches the end of its life. The amount of ultraviolet irradiation and ablation experienced by a planet depends strongly on the temperature of its host star. Of the thousands of extrasolar planets now known, only six have been found that transit hot, A-type stars (with temperatures of 7,300–10,000 kelvin), and no planets are known to transit the even hotter B-type stars. For example, WASP-33 is an A-type star with a temperature of about 7,430 kelvin, which hosts the hottest known transiting planet, WASP-33b (ref. 1 ); the planet is itself as hot as a red dwarf star of type M (ref. 2 ). WASP-33b displays a large heat differential between its dayside and nightside 2 , and is highly inflated–traits that have been linked to high insolation 3 , 4 . However, even at the temperature of its dayside, its atmosphere probably resembles the molecule-dominated atmospheres of other planets and, given the level of ultraviolet irradiation it experiences, its atmosphere is unlikely to be substantially ablated over the lifetime of its star. Here we report observations of the bright star HD 195689 (also known as KELT-9), which reveal a close-in (orbital period of about 1.48 days) transiting giant planet, KELT-9b. At approximately 10,170 kelvin, the host star is at the dividing line between stars of type A and B, and we measure the dayside temperature of KELT-9b to be about 4,600 kelvin. This is as hot as stars of stellar type K4 (ref. 5 ). The molecules in K stars are entirely dissociated, and so the primary sources of opacity in the dayside atmosphere of KELT-9b are probably atomic metals. Furthermore, KELT-9b receives 700 times more extreme-ultraviolet radiation (that is, with wavelengths shorter than 91.2 nanometres) than WASP-33b, leading to a predicted range of mass-loss rates that could leave the planet largely stripped of its envelope during the main-sequence lifetime of the host star 6 .

We investigate various astrophysical contributions to the statistical uncertainty of precision radial velocity measurements of stellar spectra. We first analytically determine the intrinsic uncertainty in centroiding isolated spectral lines broadened by Gaussian, Lorentzian, Voigt, and rotational profiles, finding that for all cases and assuming weak lines, the uncertainty in the line centroid is , where Θ is the full-width at half-maximum of the line, W is the equivalent width, and I0 is the continuum signal-to-noise ratio, with C a constant of order unity that depends on the specific line profile. We use this result to motivate approximate analytic expressions to the total radial velocity uncertainty for a stellar spectrum with a given photon noise, resolution, wavelength, effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, macroturbulence, and stellar rotation. We use these relations to determine the dominant contributions to the statistical uncertainties in precision radial velocity measurements as a function of effective temperature and mass for main-sequence stars. For stars more massive than ∼1.1 M⊙ we find that stellar rotation dominates the velocity uncertainties for moderate and high-resolution spectra (R ≳ 30,000). For less-massive stars, a variety of sources contribute depending on the spectral resolution and wavelength, with photon noise due to decreasing bolometric luminosity generally becoming increasingly important for low-mass stars at fixed exposure time and distance. In most cases, resolutions greater than 60,000 provide little benefit in terms of statistical precision, although higher resolutions would likely allow for better control of systematic uncertainties. We find that the spectra of cooler stars and stars with higher metallicity are intrinsically richer in velocity information, as expected. We determine the optimal wavelength range for stars of various spectral types, finding that the optimal region depends on the stellar effective temperature, but for mid M-dwarfs and earlier the most efficient wavelength region is from 6000 to 9000 Å.

ABSTRACT Given the radial velocity (RV) detection of an unseen companion, it is often of interest to estimate the probability that the companion also transits the primary star. Typically, one assumes a uniform distribution for the cosine of the inclination angle i of the companion's orbit. This yields the familiar estimate for the prior transit probability of ∼R∗/a, given the primary radius R∗ and orbital semimajor axis a, and assuming small companions and a circular orbit. However, the posterior transit probability depends not only on the prior probability distribution of i but also on the prior probability distribution of the companion mass Mc, given a measurement of the product of the two (the minimum mass Mc sin i) from an RV signal. In general, the posterior can be larger or smaller than the prior transit probability. We derive analytic expressions for the posterior transit probability assuming a power-law form for the distribution of true masses, d Γ / d M c ∝ M c α , for integer values -3 ≤ α ≤ 3. We show that for low transit probabilities, these probabilities reduce to a constant multiplicative factor fα of the corresponding prior transit probability, where fα in general depends on α and an assumed upper limit on the true mass. The prior and posterior probabilities are equal for α = -1. The posterior transit probability is ∼1.5 times larger than the prior for α = -3 and is ∼4/π times larger for α = -2, but is less than the prior for α≥0, and can be arbitrarily small for α > 1. We also calculate the posterior transit probability in different mass regimes for two physically-motivated mass distributions of companions around Sun-like stars. We find that for Jupiter-mass planets, the posterior transit probability is roughly equal to the prior probability, whereas the posterior is likely higher for Super-Earths and Neptunes (10 M⊕ - 30 M⊕) and Super-Jupiters (3 MJup - 10 MJup), owing to the predicted steep rise in the mass function toward smaller masses in these regimes. We therefore suggest that companions with minimum masses in these regimes might be better-than-expected targets for transit follow-up, and we identify promising targets from RV-detected planets in the literature. Finally, we consider the uncertainty in the transit probability arising from uncertainties in the input parameters, and the effect of ignoring the dependence of the transit probability on the true semimajor axis on i.

We describe the target selection procedure by which stars are selected for 2 minute and 20 s observations by TESS. We first list the technical requirements of the TESS instrument and ground systems processing that limit the total number of target slots. We then describe algorithms used by the TESS Payload Operation Center (POC) to merge candidate targets requested by the various TESS mission elements (the Target Selection Working Group, TESS Asteroseismic Science Consortium, and Guest Investigator office). Lastly, we summarize the properties of the observed TESS targets over the two-year primary TESS mission. We find that the POC target selection algorithm results in 2.1–3.4 times as many observed targets as target slots allocated for each mission element. We also find that the sky distribution of observed targets is different from the sky distributions of candidate targets due to technical constraints that require a relatively even distribution of targets across the TESS fields of view. We caution researchers exploring statistical analyses of TESS planet-host stars that the population of observed targets cannot be characterized by any simple set of criteria applied to the properties of the input Candidate Target Lists.

The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the top ranked large space mission of the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey, and is currently under active study by NASA. Its primary instrument will be a large-format high-resolution near-infrared imager and slitless spectrometer. A primary goal of WFIRST will be to perform a high-cadence microlensing survey of the Galactic bulge to search for low-mass exoplanets beyond the ice line. We highlight some of the expected results of the WFIRST exoplanet survey. For example, the survey will probe the abundance of Earth-mass planets from less than 1 AU outwards, including free-floating planets. In its peak sensitivity range of ~2–5 AU, WFIRST will be sensitive to planets with masses lower than Mercury, and even down to the mass of Ganymede. Overall, WFIRST is expected to detect several thousand bound planets, in addition to several thousand free-floating planets. WFIRST will complete the exoplanet census begun by Kepler, enabling an unprecedented understanding of planetary systems and their formation.

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) is a conceptual space-based 4-m telescope with the means to image and characterize potentially habitable planets orbiting Sun-like stars, and with ultraviolet to near-infrared imaging and spectroscopic capabilities suited to general observatory science.

We report on the design and first year of operations of the DEdicated MONitor of EXotransits and Transients (DEMONEXT). DEMONEXT is a 20-inch (0.5-m) robotic telescope using a PlaneWave CDK20 telescope on a Mathis instruments MI-750/1000 fork mount. DEMONEXT is equipped with a 2048 × 2048 pixel Finger Lakes Instruments (FLI) detector; a 10-position filter wheel with an electronic focuser and B, V, R, and I, g′, r′, i′, z′; and clear filters. DEMONEXT operates in a continuous observing mode and achieves 2-4 mmag raw, unbinned, precision on bright V < 13 targets with 20–120 second exposures, and 1 mmag precision achieved by binning on 5–6 minute timescales. DEMONEXT maintains sub-pixel (<0.5 pixels) target position stability on the CCD over 8 hours in good observing conditions, with degraded performance in poor weather (<1 pixel). DEMONEXT achieves 1%–10% photometry on single-epoch targets with V < 17 in 5 minute exposures, with detection thresholds of V ≈ 21. The DEMONEXT automated software has produced 143 planetary candidate transit light curves for the KELT collaboration and 48 supernovae and transient light curves for the ASAS-SN supernovae group in the first year of operation. DEMONEXT has also observed for a number of ancillary science projects including Galactic microlensing, active galactic nuclei, stellar variability, and stellar rotation.

The Second Workshop on Extreme Precision Radial Velocities defined circa 2015 the state of the art Doppler precision and identified the critical path challenges for reaching 10 cm s(-1) measurement precision. The presentations and discussion of key issues for instrumentation and data analysis and the workshop recommendations for achieving this bold precision are summarized here. Beginning with the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher spectrograph, technological advances for precision radial velocity (RV) measurements have focused on building extremely stable instruments. To reach still higher precision, future spectrometers will need to improve upon the state of the art, producing even higher fidelity spectra. This should be possible with improved environmental control, greater stability in the illumination of the spectrometer optics, better detectors, more precise wavelength calibration, and broader bandwidth spectra. Key data analysis challenges for the precision RV community include distinguishing center of mass (COM) Keplerian motion from photospheric velocities (time correlated noise) and the proper treatment of telluric contamination. Success here is coupled to the instrument design, but also requires the implementation of robust statistical and modeling techniques. COM velocities produce Doppler shifts that affect every line identically, while photospheric velocities produce line profile asymmetries with wavelength and temporal dependencies that are different from Keplerian signals. Exoplanets are an important subfield of astronomy and there has been an impressive rate of discovery over the past two decades. However, higher precision RV measurements are required to serve as a discovery technique for potentially habitable worlds, to confirm and characterize detections from transit missions, and to provide mass measurements for other space-based missions. The future of exoplanet science has very different trajectories depending on the precision that can ultimately be achieved with Doppler measurements.