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Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogues reduce hepatic steatosis, concentrations of liver enzymes, and insulin resistance in murine models of fatty liver disease. These analogues are licensed for type 2 diabetes, but their efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is unknown. We assessed the safety and efficacy of the long-acting GLP-1 analogue, liraglutide, in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. This multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial was conducted in four UK medical centres to assess subcutaneous injections of liraglutide (1·8 mg daily) compared with placebo for patients who are overweight and show clinical evidence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using a computer-generated, centrally administered procedure, stratified by trial centre and diabetes status. The trial was designed using A'Hern's single-group method, which required eight (38%) of 21 successes in the liraglutide group for the effect of liraglutide to be considered clinically significant. Patients, investigators, clinical trial site staff, and pathologists were masked to treatment assignment throughout the study. The primary outcome measure was resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with no worsening in fibrosis from baseline to end of treatment (48 weeks), as assessed centrally by two independent pathologists. Analysis was done by intention-to-treat analysis, which included all patients who underwent end-of-treatment biopsy. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01237119. Between Aug 1, 2010, and May 31, 2013, 26 patients were randomly assigned to receive liraglutide and 26 to placebo. Nine (39%) of 23 patients who received liraglutide and underwent end-of-treatment liver biopsy had resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis compared with two (9%) of 22 such patients in the placebo group (relative risk 4·3 [95% CI 1·0–17·7]; p=0·019). Two (9%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group versus eight (36%) of 22 patients in the placebo group had progression of fibrosis (0·2 [0·1–1·0]; p=0·04). Most adverse events were grade 1 (mild) to grade 2 (moderate) in severity, transient, and similar in the two treatment groups for all organ classes and symptoms, with the exception of gastrointestinal disorders in 21 (81%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group and 17 (65%) of 22 patients in the placebo group, which included diarrhoea (ten [38%] patients in the liraglutide group vs five [19%] in the placebo group), constipation (seven [27%] vs none), and loss of appetite (eight [31%] vs two [8%]). Liraglutide was safe, well tolerated, and led to histological resolution of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, warranting extensive, longer-term studies. Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, and Novo Nordisk.

IntroductionEwing sarcoma is a rare paediatric cancer. Currently, there is no way of accurately predicting these patients’ survival at diagnosis. Disease type (ie, localised disease, lung/pleuropulmonary metastases and other metastases) is used to guide treatment decisions, with metastatic patients generally having worse outcomes than localised disease patients. However, not all patients fit this trend. An accurate prognostic model could be used to guide treatment decisions in clinical practice to avoid patients being incorrectly under or overtreated.Methods and analysisThis study aims to develop and internally validate prognostic models in newly diagnosed Ewing sarcoma patients, using the EE2012 clinical trial data set. The models will incorporate prognostic factors, identified from a literature review, to predict patients’ probability of event-free survival at clinically important time points. Three models will be developed, for comparison of their performance and stability, using different methods of model selection and penalisation for overfitting (full model or backwards selection applying uniform shrinkage; and lasso variable selection). The models will be internally validated using bootstrapping to give optimism-adjusted performance statistics (calibration and discrimination) and model stability results. Patient and clinical user groups will be asked to determine risk thresholds to guide treatment decisions in clinical practice based on the model. Decision curve analyses will examine clinical utility at these thresholds.Ethics and disseminationThis study is a secondary analysis of EE2012 clinical trial data. The EE2012 trial received ethical approval from the competent authorities (UK ethics reference approval number 12/NW/0827). This study is covered by the trial ethics in place. The results from this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals to act as a benchmark for future studies.Trial registration numberEudraCT number 2012-002107-17. ISRCTN number 92192408.

Background In this article we describe the methodology of the time-to-event continual reassessment method in the presence of partial orders (PO-TITE-CRM) and the process of implementing this trial design into a phase I trial in head and neck cancer called ADePT-DDR. The ADePT-DDR trial aims to find the maximum tolerated dose of an ATR inhibitor given in conjunction with radiotherapy in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Methods The PO-TITE-CRM is a phase I trial design that builds upon the time-to-event continual reassessment method (TITE-CRM) to allow for the presence of partial ordering of doses. Partial orders occur in the case where the monotonicity assumption does not hold and the ordering of doses in terms of toxicity is not fully known. Results We arrived at a parameterisation of the design which performed well over a range of scenarios. Results from simulations were used iteratively to determine the best parameterisation of the design and we present the final set of simulations. We provide details on the methodology as well as insight into how it is applied to the trial. Conclusions Whilst being a very efficient design we highlight some of the difficulties and challenges that come with implementing such a design. As the issue of partial ordering may become more frequent due to the increasing investigations of combination therapies we believe this account will be beneficial to those wishing to implement a design with partial orders. Trial registration ADePT-DDR was added to the European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT number: 2020-001034-35) on 2020-08-07.

Background Approximately 40% of treated head and neck cancer (HNC) patients develop recurrence. The risk of recurrence declines with time from treatment. Current guidelines recommend clinical follow-up every two months for the first two years after treatment, with reducing intensity over the next three years. However, evidence for the effectiveness of these regimes in detecting recurrence is lacking, with calls for more flexible, patient-centred follow-up strategies. Methods PETNECK2 is a UK-based multi-centre programme examining a new paradigm of follow-up, using positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT)-guided, symptom-based, patient-initiated surveillance. This paradigm is being tested in a unblinded, non-inferiority, phase III, randomised controlled trial (RCT). Patients with HNC, one year after completing curative intent treatment, with no clinical symptoms or signs of loco-regional or distant metastasis will be randomised using a 1:1 allocation ratio to either regular scheduled follow-up, or to PET-CT guided, patient-initiated follow-up. Patients at a low risk of recurrence (negative PET-CT) will receive a face-to-face education session along with an Information and Support (I&S) resource package to monitor symptoms and be in control of initiating an urgent appointment when required. The primary outcome of the RCT is overall survival. The RCT also has an in-built pilot, a nested QuinteT Recruitment Intervention (QRI), and a nested mixed-methods study on patient experience and fear of cancer recurrence (FCR). An initial, single-arm feasibility study has been completed which determined the acceptability of the patient-initiated surveillance intervention, the completion rates of baseline questionnaires, and optimised the I&S resource prior to implementation in the RCT. Discussion We hypothesise that combining an additional 12-month post-treatment PET-CT scan and I&S resource will both identify patients with asymptomatic recurrence and identify those at low risk of future recurrence who will be empowered to monitor their symptoms and seek early clinical follow-up when recurrence is suspected. This change to a patient-centred model of care may have effects on both quality of life and fear of cancer recurrence. Trial registration ISRCTN: 13,709,798; 15-Oct-2021.

IntroductionRadiotherapy improves local tumour control in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities (STSE) but it also increases the probability of long-term toxicities such as tissue fibrosis, joint stiffness and lymphoedema. The use of radiation dose and volume thresholds, called dose constraints, may potentially reduce the development of toxicities in STSE. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of radiotherapy-related side effects for STSE.Methods and analysisPredicting radiotherapy response, Toxicities and quality-of-life related functional outcomes in soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities (PredicT) is a multicentre observational study comprising two cohorts (PredicT A and B). PredicT A, a retrospective analysis of the UK VorteX (NCT00423618) and IMRiS clinical trials (NCT02520128), is aimed at deriving a statistical model for development of dose–volume constraints. This model will use receiving operator characteristics and multivariate analysis to predict radiotherapy side effects and patient-reported outcomes. PredicT B, a prospective cohort study of 150 patients with STSE, is aimed at testing the validity of those dose–volume constraints. PredicT B is open and planned to complete recruitment by September 2024.Ethics and disseminationPredicT B has received ethical approval from North West - Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (20/NW/0267). Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part. We will disseminate our findings via publications, presentations, national and international conference meetings and engage with local charities.Trial registration number NCT05978024.

Background Patients with intermediate and high-risk oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) have poorer response to standard treatment and poorer overall survival compared to low-risk OPC. CompARE is designed to test alternative approaches to intensified treatment for these patients to improve survival. Methods CompARE is a pragmatic phase III, open-label, multicenter randomised controlled trial with an adaptive multi-arm, multi-stage design and an integrated QuinteT Recruitment Intervention. Eligible OPC patients include those with human papillomavirus (HPV) negative, T1–T4, N1–N3 or T3–4, N0, or HPV positive N3, T4, or current smokers (or ≥ 10 pack years previous smoking history) with T1–T4, N2b–N3. CompARE was originally designed with four arms (one control [arm 1] and three experimental: arm 2—induction chemotherapy followed by arm 1; arm 3—dose-escalated radiotherapy plus concomitant cisplatin; and arm 4—resection of primary followed by arm 1). The three original experimental arms have been closed to recruitment and a further experimental arm opened (arm 5—induction durvalumab followed by arm 1 and then adjuvant durvalumab). Currently recruiting are arm 1 (control): standard treatment of 3-weekly cisplatin 100 mg/m 2 or weekly 40 mg/m 2 with intensity-modulated radiotherapy using 70 Gy in 35 fractions ± neck dissection determined by clinical and radiological assessment 3 months post-treatment, and arm 5 (intervention): one cycle of induction durvalumab 1500 mg followed by standard treatment then durvalumab 1500 mg every 4 weeks for a total of 6 months. The definitive and interim primary outcome measures are overall survival time and event-free survival (EFS) time, respectively. Secondary outcome measures include quality of life, toxicity, swallowing outcomes, feeding tube incidence, surgical complication rates, and cost-effectiveness. The design anticipates that after approximately 7 years, 84 required events will have occurred to enable analysis of the definitive primary outcome measure for this comparison. Planned interim futility analyses using EFS will also be performed. Discussion CompARE is designed to be efficient and cost-effective in response to new data, emerging new treatments or difficulties, with the aim of bringing new treatment options for these patients. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN41478539 . Registered on 29 April 2015

This paper reports guidelines for the content of statistical analysis plans for early phase clinical trials, ensuring specification of the minimum reporting analysis requirements, by detailing extensions (11 new items) and modifications (25 items) to existing guidance after a review by various stakeholders.

BackgroundAxitinib is an oral vascular endothelial growth factor receptor inhibitor with anti-tumour activity in renal, thyroid, and pancreatic cancer.MethodsAxi-STS was a pathologically-stratified, non-randomised, open-label, multi-centre, phase II trial of continuous axitinib treatment in patients ≥16 years, performance status ≤2, with pathologically-confirmed advanced/metastatic soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Patients were recruited within four tumour strata, each analysed separately: angiosarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, synovial sarcoma, or other eligible STSs. The primary outcome was progression-free survival at 12 weeks (PFS12). A Simon’s two-stage design with activity defined as PFS12 rate of 40% determined a sample size of 33 patients per strata.ResultsBetween 31-August-2010 and 29-January-2016, 145 patients were recruited: 38 angiosarcoma, 37 leiomyosarcoma, 36 synovial sarcoma, and 34 other subtypes. PFS12 rate for each stratum analysed was 42% (95% lower confidence interval (LCI); 29), 45% (95% LCI; 32), 57% (95% LCI; 42), and 33% (95% LCI; 21), respectively. There were 74 serious adverse events including two treatment-related deaths of pulmonary haemorrhage and gastrointestinal bleeding. Fatigue and hypertension were the most common grade 3 adverse events.ConclusionsAxitinib showed clinical activity in all STS strata investigated. The adverse event profile was acceptable, supporting further investigation in phase III trials.Clinical Trial RegistrationISRCTN 60791336

BackgroundSoft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare, heterogeneous tumours and biomarkers are needed to inform management. We previously derived a prognostic tumour microenvironment classifier (24-gene hypoxia signature). Here, we developed/validated an assay for clinical application.MethodsTechnical performance of targeted assays (Taqman low-density array, nanoString) was compared in 28 prospectively collected formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies. The nanoString assay was biologically validated by comparing to HIF-1α/CAIX immunohistochemistry (IHC) in clinical samples. The Manchester (n = 165) and VORTEX Phase III trial (n = 203) cohorts were used for clinical validation. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS).ResultsBoth assays demonstrated excellent reproducibility. The nanoString assay detected upregulation of the 24-gene signature under hypoxia in vitro, and 16/24 hypoxia genes were upregulated in tumours with high CAIX expression in vivo. Patients with hypoxia-high tumours had worse OS in the Manchester (HR 3.05, 95% CI 1.54–5.19, P = 0.0005) and VORTEX (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.19–3.77, P = 0.009) cohorts. In the combined cohort, it was independently prognostic for OS (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.42–3.53, P = 0.00096) and associated with worse local recurrence-free survival (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.01–4.68, P = 0.04).ConclusionsThis study comprehensively validates a microenvironment classifier befitting FFPE STS biopsies. Future uses include: (1) selecting high-risk patients for perioperative chemotherapy; and (2) biomarker-driven trials of hypoxia-targeted therapies.