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Alaska's largest city, Anchorage, depends on Eklutna Glacier meltwater for drinking water and hydropower generation; however, the 29 km2 glacier is rapidly retreating. We used a temperature-index model forced with local weather station data to reconstruct the glacier's mass balance for the period 1985–2019 and quantify the impacts of glacier change on discharge. Model calibration involved a novel combination of in situ, geodetic mass-balance measurements and observed snowlines from satellite imagery. A resulting ensemble of 250 best-fitting model parameters was used to model mass balance and discharge. Eklutna Glacier experienced a significant negative trend (−0.31 m w.e. decade−1) in annual mean surface mass balance (mean: −0.62 ± 0.06 m w.e.). The day of the year when 95% of annual melt occurs was five days later in 2011–19 than in 1985–93, demonstrating a prolongation of melt season (May–September). Modeled mean specific discharge increased at 0.14 m decade−1, indicating peak water, the year when annual discharge reaches a maximum due to glacier retreat, has not been reached. Four of the five highest discharge years occurred since 2000. Increases in discharge quantity and melt season length require water resource managers consider future decreased discharge as the glacier continues to shrink.

1. Tall-shrub expansion into low-statured communities, a hallmark of recent vegetative change across tundra ecosystems, involves three major genera: Alnus, Betula and Salix. Which genus expands most into tundra landscapes will determine ecosystem properties. 2. We show that Alnus and Salix shrubs segregate thermal space (elevation × insolation) and colonize tundra landscapes differently in response to climate warming, thereby replacing different tundra types. 3. Vegetative change estimated from repeat photography should account for hill-slope. Methodologically, slope determines surface area estimated from orthophotos as projected pixel area times secant of pixel slope. Ecologically, the change in thermally responsive vegetative area is sensitive to terrain steepness, scaling as the cosecant of hill-slope, so that studies should expect more shrub expansion in areas of shallow slopes than steep slopes. 4. Repeat aerial photography in Alaska's Chugach Mountains from 1972 to 2012 orthorectified on a high-resolution lidar digital elevation model indicated tall Salix was rare in 1972 and colonized warmer slopes by 2012. Tall Alnus colonized steeper, cooler slopes both by 2012 and by 1972. Salix and forest colonized similar thermal space. Colonization probability for both shrub genera was maximized at intermediate elevations. 5. Alnus colonization adjacent to dwarf-shrub tundra was twenty times as likely as Salix colonization. Salix colonization adjacent to low-shrub/herbaceous tundra was three times as likely as Alnus colonization. Replacement of dwarf-shrub tundra by Alnus and of low-shrub/herbaceous communities by Salix will affect herbivores and soil properties. 6. Good agreement between observations of plant functional type and multinomial predictions in a thermal space defined by elevation and insolation suggested that these two variables were sufficient for forecast modelling. Spatially explicit, climate-driven generalized linear multinomial and random forest classification models in available thermal space forecast surface areas of forest, Alnus, Salix and tundra over a range of warming, modelled as upward shifted isotherms, including expected IPCC scenarios. Both modelling approaches indicated that shrubs may respond nonlinearly to warming. 7. Synthesis. The provision of taxon-specific coefficients for climate-driven, spatially explicit models using high-resolution digital elevation models is necessary for accurately forecasting vegetative change due to climate warming in montane and arctic regions.

We analyzed glacier surface elevations (1957, 2010 and 2015) and surface mass-balance measurements (2008–2015) on the 30 km2 Eklutna Glacier, in the Chugach Mountains of southcentral Alaska. The geodetic mass balances from 1957 to 2010 and 2010 to 2015 are −0.52 ± 0.46 and −0.74 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1, respectively. The glaciological mass balance of −0.73 m w.e. a−1 from 2010 to 2015 is indistinguishable from the geodetic value. Even after accounting for loss of firn in the accumulation zone, we found most of the mass loss over both time periods was from a broad, low-slope basin that includes much of the accumulation zone of the main branch. Ice-equivalent surface elevation changes in the basin were −1.0 ± 0.8 m a−1 from 1957 to 2010, and −0.6 ± 0.1 m a−1 from 2010 to 2015, shifting the glacier hypsometry downward and resulting in more negative mass balances: an altitude-mass-balance feedback. Net mass loss from Eklutna Glacier accounts for 7 ± 1% of the average inflow to Eklutna Reservoir, which is entirely used for water and power by Anchorage, Alaska's largest city. If the altitude-mass-balance feedback continues, this ‘deglaciation discharge dividend’ is likely to increase over the short-term before it eventually decreases due to diminishing glacier area.

Glaciers in Alaska cover over ~87,000 km2 (~ 6 % of the state) with most glaciers thinning and retreating at an increasing rate. The thinning and retreating of glaciers worldwide can have an immediate socio-economic implication in addition to the longer term glacier meltwater contribution to sea level rise. This dissertation investigated Alaskan glaciers in the Brooks Range for mass loss and area reductions over the period 1970–2001 (Chapter 2), historic mass balance and runoff for Eklutna Glacier, located in western Chugach Mountains, using a temperature index model over the1984-2019 period (Chapter 3), and the persistence of tephra from a volcanic eruption of Mt. Spurr in 1992 on seven western Chugach Mountain glaciers (Chapter 4). Glaciers in the Brooks Range in Arctic Alaska (> 68° N) are important indicators of climate change and provide information on long-term climate variations in an area that has few high elevation meteorological stations. Digital elevation models (DEMs) reconstructed from topographic maps were differenced from an interferometric synthetic aperture radar DEM to calculate the volume and mass changes of 107 glaciers (42 km2). Over the period 1970–2001, total ice volume loss was 0.69 ± 0.06 km3 corresponding to a mean (area-weighted) specific mass balance rate of -0.54 ± 0.05 m w.e. a-1 (± uncertainty). The arithmetic mean of all glaciers' specific mass balance rates was -0.47 ± 0.27 m w.e. a-1 (± 1 std. dev.). A subsample of 36 glaciers found a 26 ± 16 % mean area reduction over ~35 years.Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, is critically dependent upon the melt water of Eklutna Glacier (29 km2) for both drinking water and hydropower generation; however, the glacier is rapidly retreating. We used a temperature index model to reconstruct the glacier’s mass balance for the period 1985-2019 and quantify the impacts of glacier change on runoff. Eklutna Glacier experienced a significant annual mean surface mass balance negative trend (-0.38 m w.e. decade-1). Mean annual cumulative melt increased by 24 % between the 1985-93 and 2011-19 period. Additionally, the day of the year when 95 % of annual melt has occurred was eight days later in the later time period than in the earlier period, demonstrating a prolongation of the melt season. The modeled mean annual discharge increased at a rate of 0.2 m decade-1. This indicates that peak water, i.e. the year when annual discharge starts decreasing as the glacier becomes smaller, has not been reached. The past increases in runoff quantity and melt season length provide opportunities for water resource managers that must be balanced against future decreased runoff as the glacier continues to shrink.Volcanic eruptions deposit volcanic tephra on glaciers in Alaska, modifying surface albedo and glacier melt. We mapped the distribution of tephra originating from the eruption of Mt. Spurr in 1992 using aerial photos and satellite imagery on seven glaciers located approximately 180 km east of the volcano in western Chugach Mountains in south central Alaska. The glaciers were completely covered with ≥ 500 g m-2 tephra immediately after the event. Tephra deposits are still visible on all glaciers 26 years after the eruption. Using Landsat 8 surface reflectance bands, we quantified percentages of tephra glacier coverage. Results suggest an increasing tephra extent on five of the seven investigated glaciers over 2013-2018 period explained by firn line retreat. The mean percent increase for all glaciers was 4 % with Troublesome Glacier showing the greatest increase (~ 7 %) and Finch Glacier showing a slight decrease (~ 1%). This long-term tephra persistence on glacier surfaces most likely enhanced melt although the precise effect remains unknown.

Alaska's arctic glaciers have retreated and thinned during recent decades, and glaciers in the central Brooks Range are no exception. Digital elevation models (DEMs) reconstructed from topographic maps (from 1970 and 1973) were differenced from a 2001 interferometric synthetic aperture radar DEM to calculate the volume and mass changes of 107 glaciers covering 42 km2 (1970/1973) in the central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. For each glacier the 1970/1973 DEM was 3-D co-registered (horizontal and vertical) to maximize agreement between the non-glacierized terrains of both DEMs. Over the period 1970-2001, total ice volume loss was 0.69 plus or minus 0.06 km3 corresponding to a mean (area-weighted) specific mass balance rate of -0.54 plus or minus 0.05 m w.e. a-1 ( plus or minus uncertainty). The arithmetic mean of all glaciers' specific mass balance rates was -0.47 plus or minus 0.27 m w.e. a-1 ( plus or minus 1 std. dev.). A value of -0.52 plus or minus 0.36 m w.e. a-1 ( plus or minus 1 std. dev.) was found when 3-D coregistration is performed over the entire domain instead of individually for each glacier, indicating the importance of proper co-registration. Glacier area, perimeter, boundary compactness, mean elevation, and mean slope were correlated with specific balance rates, suggesting that large, low-elevation, elongated and shallow sloped glaciers had more negative balance rates than small, high-elevation, circular, and steep glaciers. A subsample of 36 glaciers showed a mean area reduction of 26 plus or minus 16% ( plus or minus 1 std. dev.) over similar to 35 years.

Alaska's arctic glaciers have retreated and thinned during recent decades, and glaciers in the central Brooks Range are no exception. Digital elevation models (DEMs) reconstructed from topographic maps (from 1970 and 1973) were differenced from a 2001 interferometric synthetic aperture radar DEM to calculate the volume and mass changes of 107 glaciers covering 42 km2 (1970/1973) in the central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. For each glacier the 1970/1973 DEM was 3-D co-registered (horizontal and vertical) to maximize agreement between the non-glacierized terrains of both DEMs. Over the period 1970–2001, total ice volume loss was 0.69 ± 0.06 km3 corresponding to a mean (area-weighted) specific mass balance rate of -0.54 ± 0.05 m w.e. a-1 (± uncertainty). The arithmetic mean of all glaciers' specific mass balance rates was -0.47 ± 0.27 m w.e. a-1 (± 1 std. dev.). A value of -0.52 ± 0.36 m w.e. a-1 (± 1 std. dev.) was found when 3-D coregistration is performed over the entire domain instead of individually for each glacier, indicating the importance of proper co-registration. Glacier area, perimeter, boundary compactness, mean elevation, and mean slope were correlated with specific balance rates, suggesting that large, low-elevation, elongated and shallow sloped glaciers had more negative balance rates than small, high-elevation, circular, and steep glaciers. A subsample of 36 glaciers showed a mean area reduction of 26 ± 16% (±1 std. dev.) over ∼35 years.

Datasets from a 4-year monitoring effort at Lake Peters, a glacier-fed lake in Arctic Alaska, are described and presented with accompanying methods, biases, and corrections. Three meteorological stations documented air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall at different elevations in the Lake Peters watershed. Data from ablation stake stations on Chamberlin Glacier were used to quantify glacial melt, and measurements from two hydrological stations were used to reconstruct continuous discharge for the primary inflows to Lake Peters, Carnivore and Chamberlin creeks. The lake's thermal structure was monitored using a network of temperature sensors on moorings, the lake's water level was recorded using pressure sensors, and sedimentary inputs to the lake were documented by sediment traps. We demonstrate the utility of these datasets by examining a flood event in July 2015, though other uses include studying intra- and inter-annual trends in this weather–glacier–river–lake system, contextualizing interpretations of lake sediment cores, and providing background for modeling studies. All DOI-referenced datasets described in this paper are archived at the National Science Foundation Arctic Data Center at the following overview web page for the project: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/view/urn:uuid:df1eace5-4dd7-4517-a985-e4113c631044 (last access: 13 October 2019; Kaufman et al., 2019f).

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an aggressive cancer that has remained clinically challenging to manage. Here we employ an RNAi-based in vivo functional genomics platform to determine epigenetic vulnerabilities across a panel of patient-derived PDAC models. Through this, we identify protein arginine methyltransferase 1 (PRMT1) as a critical dependency required for PDAC maintenance. Genetic and pharmacological studies validate the role of PRMT1 in maintaining PDAC growth. Mechanistically, using proteomic and transcriptomic analyses, we demonstrate that global inhibition of asymmetric arginine methylation impairs RNA metabolism, which includes RNA splicing, alternative polyadenylation, and transcription termination. This triggers a robust downregulation of multiple pathways involved in the DNA damage response, thereby promoting genomic instability and inhibiting tumor growth. Taken together, our data support PRMT1 as a compelling target in PDAC and informs a mechanism-based translational strategy for future therapeutic development. Statement of significance PDAC is a highly lethal cancer with limited therapeutic options. This study identified and characterized PRMT1-dependent regulation of RNA metabolism and coordination of key cellular processes required for PDAC tumor growth, defining a mechanism-based translational hypothesis for PRMT1 inhibitors. Arginine methylation by PRMTs is dysregulated in cancer. Here, the authors use functional genomics screens and identify PRMT1 as a vulnerability in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, and further show that PRMT1 regulates RNA metabolism and coordinates expression of genes in cell cycle progression, maintaining genomic stability and tumour growth.