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AbstractObjectiveTo provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesMedline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019.Eligibility criteria for study selectionStudies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients.Results13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias.ConclusionsEarly warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42017053324.

In a randomized trial, 3102 patients undergoing CABG were assigned to receive bilateral or single internal-thoracic-artery grafts. There was no significant between-group difference in all-cause mortality at 10 years.

In this trial, over 3000 patients undergoing CABG were assigned to single or bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafts. At 5 years, there was no difference in mortality or cardiovascular events. More sternal wound infections occurred with bilateral grafts. Coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) is one of the most commonly performed operations worldwide and has been established as an effective treatment for symptomatic multivessel coronary artery disease. 1 , 2 The standard surgical approach is anastomosis of the left internal thoracic (mammary) artery to the left anterior descending coronary artery and the use of saphenous-vein or radial-artery grafts to bypass other coronary arteries. 3 , 4 The single internal-thoracic-artery graft has a 10-year rate of angiographic patency exceeding 90%, as compared with 50% for vein grafts. 5 – 10 The excellent long-term outcomes of single internal-thoracic-artery grafts 11 , 12 have stimulated the use of a bilateral internal-thoracic-artery . . .

Background Timely recognition of the deteriorating inpatient remains challenging. Wearable monitoring systems (WMS) may augment current monitoring practices. However, there are many barriers to implementation in the hospital environment, and evidence describing the clinical impact of WMS on deterioration detection and patient outcome remains unclear. Objective To assess the impact of vital-sign monitoring on detection of deterioration and related clinical outcomes in hospitalised patients using WMS, in comparison with standard care. Methods A systematic search was conducted in August 2020 using MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CENTRAL, Health Technology Assessment databases and grey literature. Studies comparing the use of WMS against standard care for deterioration detection and related clinical outcomes in hospitalised patients were included. Deterioration related outcomes (primary) included unplanned intensive care admissions, rapid response team or cardiac arrest activation, total and major complications rate. Other clinical outcomes (secondary) included in-hospital mortality and hospital length of stay. Exploratory outcomes included alerting system parameters and clinical trial registry information. Results Of 8706 citations, 10 studies with different designs met the inclusion criteria, of which 7 were included in the meta-analyses. Overall study quality was moderate. The meta-analysis indicated that the WMS, when compared with standard care, was not associated with significant reductions in intensive care transfers (risk ratio, RR 0.87; 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66–1.15), rapid response or cardiac arrest team activation (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.69–1.01), total (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.44–1.32) and major (RR 0.55; 95% CI 0.24–1.30) complications prevalence. There was also no statistically significant association with reduced mortality (RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.18–1.29) and hospital length of stay (mean difference, MD − 0.09; 95% CI − 0.43 to 0.44). Conclusion This systematic review indicates that there is no current evidence that implementation of WMS impacts early deterioration detection and associated clinical outcomes, as differing design/quality of available studies and diversity of outcome measures make it difficult to reach a definite conclusion. Our narrative findings suggested that alarms should be adjusted to minimise false alarms and promote rapid clinical action in response to deterioration. PROSPERO Registration number : CRD42020188633 .

Acute appendicitis is the most common emergency general surgical condition in pregnancy, affecting around 1 in 1000 pregnancies. Reaching a diagnosis is more challenging in this group because of altered clinical presentations and the limitations of diagnostic tools in pregnancy. There is limited guidance from national bodies in the UK on the management of this condition. This study aims to describe current diagnostic and treatment practices for acute appendicitis in pregnancy in the UK, and associated outcomes, to identify variations in practice and areas for improvement. This is a UK-wide observational study. Hospitals providing an emergency general surgical service will be eligible to participate. The study consists of two components: (1) a site resource-profile questionnaire to assess the setup of services to care for the pregnant patient requiring emergency non-obstetric abdominal surgery to be completed by a senior collaborator at each participating site, and (2) a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with appendicitis or who had an appendicectomy for suspected appendicitis during a ten-year study period (2013-2023). Data will be collected on diagnostics, radiological findings, management approach and surgical and obstetric outcomes. The main measure of interest is the management approaches (operative versus non-operative; laparoscopic versus open surgery) and their association with selected outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression analyses will be conducted to identify factors which might predict the management strategy and outcomes. The protocol for this service evaluation study has been reviewed by the University of Sheffield Research Ethics Committee. The study findings will be discussed in a multistakeholder workshop consisting of general surgeons, obstetricians and gynaecologists, radiologists, anaesthetists and patient representatives with a view to making recommendations for quality improvement work and further research. Key findings and recommendations will be disseminated through specialist societies.

Background Current reference ranges for blood pressure and heart rate throughout pregnancy have a poor evidence base. Methods This is a systematic review and meta-analysis. We included studies measuring blood pressure or heart rate from healthy pregnant women within defined gestational periods of 16 weeks or less. We analysed systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and heart rate by gestational age. We assessed effects of measurement year and method. Results We included 39 studies undertaken in 1967–2017, containing 124,349 systolic measurements from 36,239 women, 124,291 diastolic measurements from 36,181 women and 10,948 heart rate measurements from 8317 women. Mean (95% CI) systolic blood pressure was lowest at 10 weeks gestation, 110.4 (108.5, 112.3) mmHg, rising to 116.0 (113.6, 118.4) mmHg at 40 weeks, mean (95% CI) change 5.6 (4.0, 7.2) mmHg. Mean (95% CI) diastolic blood pressure was lowest at 21 weeks gestation, 65.9 (64.2, 67.7) mmHg; rising to 72.8 (71.0, 74.6) mmHg at 40 weeks, mean (95% CI) change 6.9 (6.2, 7.5) mmHg. Mean (95% CI) heart rate rose from 79.3 (75.5, 83.1) beats/min at 10 weeks to 86.9 (82.2, 91.6) beats/min at 40 weeks gestation, mean (95% CI) change 7.6 (1.8, 13.4) beats/min. Studies using manual measurement reported higher diastolic blood pressures than studies using automated measurement, mean (95 CI) difference 4.9 (0.8, 8.9) mmHg. Diastolic blood pressure increased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.10–0.43) mmHg/year. Including only higher-quality studies had little effect on findings, with heterogeneity remaining high ( I 2 statistic > 50%). Conclusions Significant gestational blood pressure and heart rate changes occur that should be taken into account when assessing pregnant women. Commonly taught substantial decreases in blood pressure mid-pregnancy were not seen and heart rate increases were lower than previously thought. Manual and automated blood pressure measurement cannot be used interchangeably. Increases in diastolic blood pressure over the last half-century and differences between published studies show contemporary data are required to define current normal ranges. Study registration PROSPERO CRD42014009673

The prevalence of malignant pleural effusion is increasing worldwide, but prognostic biomarkers to plan treatment and to understand the underlying mechanisms of disease progression remain unidentified. The PROMISE study was designed with the objectives to discover, validate, and prospectively assess biomarkers of survival and pleurodesis response in malignant pleural effusion and build a score that predicts survival. In this multicohort study, we used five separate and independent datasets from randomised controlled trials to investigate potential biomarkers of survival and pleurodesis. Mass spectrometry-based discovery was used to investigate pleural fluid samples for differential protein expression in patients from the discovery group with different survival and pleurodesis outcomes. Clinical, radiological, and biological variables were entered into least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to build a model that predicts 3-month mortality. We evaluated the model using internal and external validation. 17 biomarker candidates of survival and seven of pleurodesis were identified in the discovery dataset. Three independent datasets (n=502) were used for biomarker validation. All pleurodesis biomarkers failed, and gelsolin, macrophage migration inhibitory factor, versican, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1 (TIMP1) emerged as accurate predictors of survival. Eight variables (haemoglobin, C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, cancer type, pleural fluid TIMP1 concentrations, and previous chemotherapy or radiotherapy) were validated and used to develop a survival score. Internal validation with bootstrap resampling and external validation with 162 patients from two independent datasets showed good discrimination (C statistic values of 0·78 [95% CI 0·72–0·83] for internal validation and 0·89 [0·84–0·93] for external validation of the clinical PROMISE score). To our knowledge, the PROMISE score is the first prospectively validated prognostic model for malignant pleural effusion that combines biological and clinical parameters to accurately estimate 3-month mortality. It is a robust, clinically relevant prognostic score that can be applied immediately, provide important information on patient prognosis, and guide the selection of appropriate management strategies. European Respiratory Society, Medical Research Funding-University of Oxford, Slater & Gordon Research Fund, and Oxfordshire Health Services Research Committee Research Grants.

Early warning scores (EWS) are routinely used in hospitals to assess a patient's risk of deterioration. EWS are traditionally recorded on paper observation charts but are increasingly recorded digitally. In either case, evidence for the clinical effectiveness of such scores is mixed, and previous studies have not considered whether EWS leads to changes in how deteriorating patients are managed. This study aims to examine whether the introduction of a digital EWS system was associated with more frequent observation of patients with abnormal vital signs, a precursor to earlier clinical intervention. We conducted a 2-armed stepped-wedge study from February 2015 to December 2016, over 4 hospitals in 1 UK hospital trust. In the control arm, vital signs were recorded using paper observation charts. In the intervention arm, a digital EWS system was used. The primary outcome measure was time to next observation (TTNO), defined as the time between a patient's first elevated EWS (EWS ≥3) and subsequent observations set. Secondary outcomes were time to death in the hospital, length of stay, and time to unplanned intensive care unit admission. Differences between the 2 arms were analyzed using a mixed-effects Cox model. The usability of the system was assessed using the system usability score survey. We included 12,802 admissions, 1084 in the paper (control) arm and 11,718 in the digital EWS (intervention) arm. The system usability score was 77.6, indicating good usability. The median TTNO in the control and intervention arms were 128 (IQR 73-218) minutes and 131 (IQR 73-223) minutes, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratio for TTNO was 0.99 (95% CI 0.91-1.07; P=.73). We demonstrated strong clinical engagement with the system. We found no difference in any of the predefined patient outcomes, suggesting that the introduction of a highly usable electronic system can be achieved without impacting clinical care. Our findings contrast with previous claims that digital EWS systems are associated with improvement in clinical outcomes. Future research should investigate how digital EWS systems can be integrated with new clinical pathways adjusting staff behaviors to improve patient outcomes.

BackgroundTotal hip arthroplasty (THA) is a highly effective procedure for improving pain and function in patients with advanced joint degeneration; however, revision surgery may be required because of complications or implant wear. Revision THA (rTHA) has a higher in-hospital mortality rate, longer hospital length of stay, are at higher risk of re-revision surgery and have worse physical and mental health outcome measures compared with primary THAs. The introduction of specialist revision hubs also means that patients frequently travel further for surgery. No specific guidelines have been established for rehabilitation after rTHA, leading to large variations in practice and potentially inadequate provision. We hypothesise that delivering a tailored physiotherapy intervention will improve and sustain greater functional outcomes and health-related quality of life compared with standard protocols currently in place. The aim of this study is to determine the feasibility and explore the acceptability of a trial investigating the effectiveness of a tailored physiotherapy intervention after rTHA.Methods and analysisMulticentre, parallel two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial with an embedded qualitative study. A total of 60 participants will be recruited from at least four UK NHS secondary care hospitals and randomly allocated (1:1 ratio) to either the tailored physiotherapy rehabilitation (THRIVE) programme or a standardised usual care arm. Eligible adults will be undergoing a single or final stage rTHA and participating in outpatient physiotherapy. Feasibility outcomes include recruitment rate, retention rate, adherence rate, intervention fidelity, outcome measure completion and acceptability of the intervention. Research assessments consisting of patient-reported and performance-based measures will occur preoperatively (baseline), with follow-ups at 4 and 8 months postoperatively. Feasibility data will be analysed using descriptive statistics. The embedded qualitative study will include trial participants and physiotherapists from the THRIVE arm to explore their experience of the trial and understand measures to improve the delivery of a future trial.Ethics and disseminationThe study has received ethical approval (West of Scotland REC 25/WS/0080), and all participants will provide informed consent. It will assess trial feasibility while exploring operational and safety challenges, including recruitment barriers and the potential value of a hub-and-spoke model for delivering physiotherapy. Findings will be disseminated through trial registry reporting, peer-reviewed open-access publication, conference presentations and participant summaries, with reporting aligned to CONSORT guidelines for pilot and feasibility trials.Trial registration number ISRCTN10649335.

Introduction This study aimed to validate the Sargent risk stratification algorithm for the prediction of placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) severity using data collected from multiple centers and using the multicenter data to improve the model. Material and Methods We conducted a multicenter analysis using data collected for the IS‐PAS database. The Sargent model's effectiveness in distinguishing between abnormally adherent placenta (FIGO grade 1) and abnormally invasive placenta (FIGO grades 2 and 3) was evaluated. A new model was developed using multicenter data from the IS‐PAS database. Results The database included 315 cases of suspected PAS, of which 226 had fully documented standardized ultrasound signs. The final diagnosis was normal placentation in 5, abnormally adherent placenta/FIGO grade 1 in 43, and abnormally invasive placenta/FIGO grades 2 and 3 in 178. The external validation of the Sargent model revealed moderate predictive accuracy in a multicenter setting (C‐index 0.68), compared to its higher accuracy in a single‐center context (C‐index 0.90). The newly developed model achieved a C‐index of 0.74. Conclusions The study underscores the difficulty in developing universally applicable PAS prediction models. While models like that of Sargent et al. show promise, their reproducibility varies across settings, likely due to the interpretation of the ultrasound signs. The findings support the need for updating the current ultrasound descriptors and for the development of any new predictive models to use data collected by different operators in multiple clinical settings. This study evaluated the Sargent risk stratification algorithm for predicting placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) severity across multiple centers using the IS‐PAS database. The algorithm's ability to differentiate between abnormally adherent (FIGO grade 1) and invasive placenta (FIGO grades 2 and 3) was assessed, and a new model was developed based on this multicenter data. Analysis of 315 suspected PAS cases revealed that the Sargent model had moderate predictive accuracy in a multicenter context (C‐index 0.68), lower than in a single‐center setting (C‐index 0.90). The new model achieved a C‐index of 0.74. The study highlights challenges in creating universally applicable PAS models, suggesting the need for updated ultrasound descriptors and new models incorporating data from diverse clinical environments.