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Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of −6.1 cm yr−1 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 20%–23% of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

Estimating groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies by subtracting model‐derived components from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies is a common practice in hydrology. Typically, land surface model (LSM) simulated soil moisture (SM), snow water equivalent, and canopy water content are removed from GRACE‐derived TWS, and the residual is interpreted as GWS. However, this method implicitly assumes that LSMs account for all non‐groundwater storages within distinct, physically meaningful compartments. In this comment, we examine the assumptions, semantic and structural challenges embedded in this approach, suggesting that users consider the consequences of model simplifications and conventions on the results. We encourage careful interpretation and advocate for more sophisticated methods, including making use of data assimilation and models that represent physical hydrological processes more completely.

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (ALMIP-2), this study evaluates the water balance simulated by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) over the upper Ouémé River basin, in Benin, using a mesoscale river routing scheme (RRS). The RRS is based on the nonlinear Muskingum–Cunge method coupled with two linear reservoirs that simulate the time delay of both surface runoff and base flow that are produced by land surface models. On the basis of the evidence of a deep water-table recharge in that region, a reservoir representing the deep-water infiltration (DWI) is introduced. The hydrological processes of the basin are simulated for the 2005–08 AMMA field campaign period during which rainfall and streamflow data were intensively collected over the study area. Optimal RRS parameter sets were determined for three optimization experiments that were performed using daily streamflow at five gauges within the basin. Results demonstrate that the RRS simulates streamflow at all gauges with relative errors varying from −20% to 3% and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients varying from 0.62 to 0.90. DWI varies from 24% to 67% of the base flow as a function of the subbasin. The relatively simple reservoir DWI approach is quite robust, and further improvements would likely necessitate more complex solutions (e.g., considering seasonality and soil type in ISBA); thus, such modifications are recommended for future studies. Although the evaluation shows that the simulated streamflows are generally satisfactory, further field investigations are necessary to confirm some of the model assumptions.

Recent advances in global flow routing schemes have shown the importance of using high-resolution topography for representing floodplain inundation dynamics more reliably. This study presents and evaluates the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP), which is a global flow routing scheme specifically designed to bridge the gap between current state-of-the-art global flow routing schemes by combining their main features and introducing new features to better capture floodplain dynamics. The ultimate goals of HyMAP are to provide the scientific community with a novel scheme suited to the assimilation of satellite altimetry data for global water discharge forecasts and a model that can be potentially coupled with atmospheric models. In this first model evaluation, HyMAP is coupled with the Interactions between Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model in order to simulate the surface water dynamics in the Amazon basin. The model is evaluated over the 1986–2006 period against an unprecedented source of information, including in situ and satellite-based datasets of water discharge and level, flow velocity, and floodplain extent. Results show that the model can satisfactorily simulate the large-scale features of the water surface dynamics of the Amazon River basin. Among all stream gauges considered, 23% have Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients (NS) higher than 0.50 and 68% above zero. About 28%of the stations have volume errors lower than 15%. Simulated discharges at Óbidos had NS = 0.89. Time series of simulated floodplains at the basin scale agrees well with satellite-based estimates, with a relative error of 7% and correlation of 0.89. These results indicate nonnegligible improvements in comparison to previous studies for the same region.

Extreme rainfall can be a catastrophic trigger for natural disaster events at urban scales. However, there remains large uncertainties as to how satellite precipitation can identify these triggers at a city scale. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of satellite-based rainfall estimates to monitor natural disaster triggers in urban areas. Rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are evaluated over the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where urban floods and landslides occur periodically as a result of extreme rainfall events. Two rainfall products derived from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), the IMERG Early and IMERG Final products, are integrated into the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model in order to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of two key hydrometeorological disaster triggers across the city over the wet seasons during 2001–2019. Here, total runoff (TR) and rootzone soil moisture (RZSM) are considered as flood and landslide triggers, respectively. Ground-based observations at 33 pluviometric stations are interpolated, and the resulting rainfall fields are used in an in-situ precipitation-based simulation, considered as the reference for evaluating the IMERG-driven simulations. The evaluation is performed during the wet seasons (November-April), when average rainfall over the city is 4.4 mm/day. Results show that IMERG products show low spatial variability at the city scale, generally overestimate rainfall rates by 12–35%, and impacts on TR and RZSM vary spatially mostly as a function of land cover and soil types. Results based on statistical and categorical metrics show that IMERG skill in detecting extreme events is moderate, with IMERG Final performing slightly better for most metrics. By analyzing two recent storms, we observe that IMERG detects mostly hourly extreme events, but underestimates rainfall rates, resulting in underestimated TR and RZSM. An evaluation of normalized time series using percentiles shows that both satellite products have significantly improved skill in detecting extreme events when compared to the evaluation using absolute values, indicating that IMERG precipitation could be potentially used as a predictor for natural disasters in urban areas.

In the last two decades, rainfall estimates provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) have proven applicable in hydrological studies. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which provides the new generation of rainfall estimates, is now considered a global successor to TRMM. The usefulness of GPM data in hydrological applications, however, has not yet been evaluated over the Andean and Amazonian regions. This study uses GPM data provided by the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) (product/final run) as input to a distributed hydrological model for the Amazon Basin of Peru and Ecuador for a 16-month period (from March 2014 to June 2015) when all datasets are available. TRMM products (TMPA V7 and TMPA RT datasets) and a gridded precipitation dataset processed from observed rainfall are used for comparison. The results indicate that precipitation data derived from GPM-IMERG correspond more closely to TMPA V7 than TMPA RT datasets, but both GPM-IMERG and TMPA V7 precipitation data tend to overestimate, compared to observed rainfall (by 11.1 and 15.7 %, respectively). In general, GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT correlate with observed rainfall, with a similar number of rain events correctly detected ( ∼  20 %). Statistical analysis of modeled streamflows indicates that GPM-IMERG is as useful as TMPA V7 or TMPA RT datasets in southern regions (Ucayali Basin). GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT do not properly simulate streamflows in northern regions (Marañón and Napo basins), probably because of the lack of adequate rainfall estimates in northern Peru and the Ecuadorian Amazon.

The objective of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is to provide best-available estimates of near-surface meteorological conditions and soil hydrological status for the continental United States. To support the ongoing efforts to develop data assimilation (DA) capabilities for NLDAS, the results of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) DA implemented in a manner consistent with NLDAS development are presented. Following previous work,GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly estimates are assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model using an ensemble smoother. In contrast to many earlier GRACE DA studies, a gridded GRACE TWS product is assimilated, spatially distributed GRACE error estimates are accounted for, and the impact that GRACE scaling factors have on assimilation is evaluated. Comparisons with quality-controlled in situ observations indicate that GRACE DA has a positive impact on the simulation of unconfined groundwater variability across the majority of the eastern United States and on the simulation of surface and root zone soil moisture across the country. Smaller improvements are seen in the simulation of snow depth, and the impact of GRACE DA on simulated river discharge and evapotranspiration is regionally variable. The use of GRACE scaling factors during assimilation improved DA results in the western United States but led to small degradations in the eastern United States. The study also found comparable performance between the use of gridded and basin-averaged GRACE observations in assimilation. Finally, the evaluations presented in the paper indicate that GRACE DA can be helpful in improving the representation of droughts.

River channels store large volumes of water globally, critically impacting ecological and biogeochemical processes. Despite the importance of river channel storage, there is not yet an observational constraint on this quantity. We introduce a 26-year record of entirely remotely sensed volumetric channel water storage (CWS) change on 26 major world rivers. We find mainstem volumetric CWS climatology amplitude (CA) represents an appreciable amount of basin-wide terrestrial water storage variability (median 2.78%, range 0.04%–12.54% across world rivers), despite mainstem rivers themselves represent an average of just 0.2% of basin area. We find that two global river routing schemes coupled with land surface models reasonably approximate CA (within ±50%) in only 11.5% (CaMa-Flood) and 30.7% (HyMap) of rivers considered. These findings demonstrate volumetric CWS is a useful quantity for assessing global hydrological model performance, and for advancing understanding of spatial patterns in global hydrology.

It is known that representing wetland dynamics in land surface modeling improves models ‘capacity to reproduce fluxes and land surface boundary conditions for atmospheric modeling in general circulation models. This study presents the development of the full coupling between the Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) and the HyMAP flood model in the NASA Land Information System and its application over the Inner Niger Delta (IND), a well-known hot-spot of strong land surface-atmosphere interactions in West Africa. Here, we define two experiments at 0.02o spatial resolution over 2002-2018 to quantify the impacts of the proposed developments on simulating IND dynamics. One represents the one-way approach for simulating land surface and flooding processes (1-WAY), i.e., Noah-MP neglects surface water availability, and the proposed two-way coupling (2-WAY), where Noah-MP takes surface water availability into account in the vertical water and energy balance. Results show that accounting for two-way interactions between Noah- MP and HyMAP over IND improves simulations of all selected hydrological variables. Compared to 1-WAY, evapotranspiration derived from 2-WAY over flooding zones doubles, increased by 0.8mm/day, resulting in an additional water loss rate of ~18,900km(exp 3)/year, ~40% drop of wetland extent during wet seasons and major improvement in simulated water level variability at multiple locations. Significant soil moisture increase and surface temperature drop were also observed. Wetland outflows decreased by 35%, resulting in a substantial a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient improvement, from -0.73 to 0.79. It is anticipated that future developments in water monitoring and water-related disaster warning systems will considerably benefit from these findings.