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Quantifying variability in the ocean carbon sink remains problematic due to sparse observations and spatiotemporal variability in surface ocean pCO2. To address this challenge, we have updated and improved ECCO‐Darwin, a global ocean biogeochemistry model that assimilates both physical and biogeochemical observations. The model consists of an adjoint‐based ocean circulation estimate from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium and an ecosystem model developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Darwin Project. In addition to the data‐constrained ECCO physics, a Green's function approach is used to optimize the biogeochemistry by adjusting initial conditions and six biogeochemical parameters. Over seasonal to multidecadal timescales (1995–2017), ECCO‐Darwin exhibits broad‐scale consistency with observed surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux reconstructions in most biomes, particularly in the subtropical and equatorial regions. The largest differences between CO2 uptake occur in subpolar seasonally stratified biomes, where ECCO‐Darwin results in stronger winter uptake. Compared to the Global Carbon Project OBMs, ECCO‐Darwin has a time‐mean global ocean CO2 sink (2.47 ± 0.50 Pg C year−1) and interannual variability that are more consistent with interpolation‐based products. Compared to interpolation‐based methods, ECCO‐Darwin is less sensitive to sparse and irregularly sampled observations. Thus, ECCO‐Darwin provides a basis for identifying and predicting the consequences of natural and anthropogenic perturbations to the ocean carbon cycle, as well as the climate‐related sensitivity of marine ecosystems. Our study further highlights the importance of physically consistent, property‐conserving reconstructions, as are provided by ECCO, for ocean biogeochemistry studies. Plain Language Summary Data‐driven estimates of how much carbon dioxide the ocean is absorbing (the so‐called “ocean carbon sink”) have improved substantially in recent years. However, computational ocean models that include biogeochemistry continue to play a critical role as they allow us to isolate and understand the individual processes that control ocean carbon sequestration. The ideal scenario is a combination of the above two methods, where data are ingested and then used to improve a model's fit to the observed ocean, also known as, data assimilation. While the physical oceanographic community has made great progress in developing data assimilation systems, for example, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, the biogeochemical community has generally lagged behind. The ECCO‐Darwin model presented in this paper represents an important technological step forward as it is the first global ocean biogeochemistry model that (1) ingests both physical and biogeochemical observations into the model in a realistic manner and (2) considers how the nature of the ocean carbon sink has changed over multiple decades. As the ECCO ocean circulation estimates become more accurate and lengthen in time, ECCO‐Darwin will become an ever more accurate and useful tool for climate‐related ocean carbon cycle and mitigation studies. Key Points ECCO‐Darwin is a global ocean biogeochemistry model that assimilates physical and biogeochemical observations in a conserving manner Air‐sea CO2 fluxes over seasonal to multidecadal timescales (1995–2017) are largely consistent with interpolation‐based products Contrary to interpolation‐based products, ECCO‐Darwin is impervious to sparse and irregularly sampled observations

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) is NASA's first satellite designed to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) with the precision, resolution, and coverage necessary to quantify regional carbon sources and sinks. OCO-2 launched on 2 July 2014, and during the first 2 years of its operation, a major El Niño occurred: the 2015-2016 El Niño, which was one of the strongest events ever recorded.El Niño and its cold counterpart La Niña (collectively known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO) are the dominant modes of tropical climate variability. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean but spurs a variety of anomalous weather patterns around the globe. Not surprisingly, it also leaves an imprint on the global carbon cycle. Understanding the magnitude and phasing of the ENSO-CO2 relationship has important implications for improving the predictability of carbon-climate feedbacks.The high-density observations from NASA's OCO-2 mission, coupled with surface ocean CO2 measurements from NOAA buoys, have provided us with a unique data set to track the atmospheric CO2 concentrations and unravel the timing of the response of the ocean and the terrestrial carbon cycle during the 2015-2016 El Niño.During strong El Niño events, there is an overall increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This increase is predominantly due to the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to El Niño-induced changes in weather patterns. But along with the terrestrial component, the tropical Pacific Ocean also plays an important role. Typically, the tropical Pacific Ocean is a source of CO2 to the atmosphere due to equatorial upwelling that brings CO2-rich water from the interior ocean to the surface. During El Niño, this equatorial upwelling is suppressed in the eastern and the central Pacific Ocean, reducing the supply of CO2 to the surface. If CO2 fluxes were to remain constant elsewhere, this reduction in ocean-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes should contribute to a slowdown in the growth of atmospheric CO2. This hypothesis cannot be verified, however, without large-scale CO2 observations over the tropical Pacific Ocean.OCO-2 observations confirm that the tropical Pacific Ocean played an early and important role in the response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to the 2015-2016 El Niño. By analyzing trends in the time series of atmospheric CO2, we see clear evidence of an initial decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the tropical Pacific Ocean, specifically during the early stages of the El Niño event (March through July 2015). Atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies suggest a flux reduction of 26 to 54% that is validated by the NOAA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring CO2 data. Both the OCO-2 and TAO data further show that the reduction in ocean-to-atmosphere fluxes is spatially variable and has strong gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean.During the later stages of the El Niño (August 2015 and later), the OCO-2 observations register a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We attribute this increase to the response from the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle--a combination of reduction in biospheric uptake of CO2 over pan-tropical regions and an enhancement in biomass burning emissions over Southeast Asia and Indonesia. The net impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño event on the global carbon cycle is an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which would likely be larger if it were not for the reduction in outgassing from the ocean.The strong El Niño event of 2015-2016 provided us with an opportunity to study how the global carbon cycle responds to a change in the physical climate system. Space-based observations of atmospheric CO2, such as from OCO-2, allow us to observe and monitor the temporal sequence of El Niño-induced changes in CO2 concentrations. Disentangling the timing of the ocean and terrestrial responses is the first step toward interpreting their relative contribution to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and thereby understanding the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual to decadal time scales.The tropical Pacific Ocean, the center of action during an El Niño event, is shown in cross section. Warm ocean surface temperatures are shown in red, cooler waters in blue. The Niño 3.4 region, which scientists use to study the El Niño, is denoted by yellow dashed lines. As a result of OCO-2's global coverage and 16-day repeat cycle, it flies over the entire region every few days, keeping tabs on the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Spaceborne observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 are used to characterize the response of tropical atmospheric CO2 concentrations to the strong El Niño event of 2015-2016. Although correlations between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are well known, the magnitude of the correlation and the timing of the responses of oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle remain poorly constrained in space and time. We used space-based CO2 observations to confirm that the tropical Pacific Ocean does play an early and important role in modulating the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations during El Niño events--a phenomenon inferred but not previously observed because of insufficient high-density, broad-scale CO2 observations over the tropics.

Sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from the Aquarius/SAC‐D satellite during September–December 2011 provide the first satellite observations of the salinity structure of tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Pacific. The related SSS anomaly has a magnitude of approximately ±0.5 PSU. Different from sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) where TIW‐related propagating signals are stronger a few degrees away from the equator, the SSS signature of TIWs is largest near the equator in the eastern equatorial Pacific where salty South Pacific water meets the fresher Inter‐tropical Convergence Zone water. The dominant westward propagation speed of SSS near the equator is approximately 1 m/s. This is twice as fast as the 0.5 m/s TIW speed widely reported in the literature, typically from SST and SSHA away from the equator. This difference is attributed to the more dominant 17‐day TIWs near the equator that have a 1 m/s dominant phase speed and the stronger 33‐day TIWs away from the equator that have a 0.5 m/s dominant phase speed. The results demonstrate the important value of Aquarius in studying TIWs. Key Points Provide unprecedented observations of TIW salinity structure of from space Observe faster TIWs speed near than away from equator (not documented before) We explain why TIWs SSS signal propagate faster near the equator

It is incontrovertible that many coral reefs are in various stages of decline and may be unable to withstand the effects of global climate change, jeopardizing vital ecosystem goods and services to hundreds of millions of people around the world. An estimated 50% of the world's corals have already been lost, and those remaining may be lost by 2030 under the “business as usual” CO2 emissions scenario. However, the foundation of these predictions is a surprisingly sparse dataset, wherein ~0.01–0.1% of the world's reef area has been quantitatively surveyed. Further, the available data comprise observations at the 1–10 m scale, which are not evenly spaced across reefs, but often clustered in areas representing focused survey effort. This impedes modeling and predicting the impact of a changing environment at the ecosystem scale. Here we highlight deficiencies in our current understanding of the relationship between coral reefs and their environments. Specifically, we conduct a meta-analysis using estimates of coral cover from a variety of local surveys, quantitatively relating reef condition to a suite of biogeophysical forcing parameters. We find that readily available public data for coral cover exhibit unexpected trends (e.g., a positive correlation between coral cover and multi-year cumulative thermal stress), contrary to prevailing scientific expectations. We illustrate a significant gap in our current understanding, and thereby prediction, of coral reefs at the ecosystem scale that can only be remedied with uniform, high-density data across vast coral reef regions, such as that from remote sensing.

Wind stress measurements from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite and two atmospheric reanalysis products are used to evaluate the annual mean and seasonal cycle of wind stress simulated by phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The ensemble CMIP3 and CMIP5 wind stresses are very similar to each other. Generally speaking, there is no significant improvement of CMIP5 over CMIP3. The CMIP ensemble–average zonal wind stress has eastward biases at midlatitude westerly wind regions (30°–50°N and 30°–50°S, with CMIP being too strong by as much as 55%), westward biases in subtropical–tropical easterly wind regions (15°–25°N and 15°–25°S), and westward biases at high-latitude regions (poleward of 55°S and 55°N). These biases correspond to too strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) wind stress curl over the subtropical (subpolar) ocean gyres, which would strengthen these gyres and influence oceanic meridional heat transport. In the equatorial zone, significant biases of CMIP wind exist in individual basins. In the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans, CMIP ensemble zonal wind stresses are too weak and result in too small of an east–west gradient of sea level. In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, CMIP zonal wind stresses are too weak in the central and too strong in the western Pacific. These biases have important implications for the simulation of various modes of climate variability originating in the tropics. The CMIP as a whole overestimate the magnitude of seasonal variability by almost 50% when averaged over the entire global ocean. The biased wind stress climatologies in CMIP not only have implications for the simulated ocean circulation and climate variability but other air–sea fluxes as well.

Changes in the physical environment associated with eastern Pacific (EP)‐El Niño and central Pacific (CP)‐El Niño events affect the biological response in the equatorial Pacific Ocean differently. However, such responses have not been adequately investigated, especially in terms of the relevant physical processes. This paper addresses the mechanistic differences in the biological response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the strongest CP‐ and EP‐El Niño to date (i.e., 1997–98 EP‐El Niño and 2009–10 CP‐El Niño) using satellite data and water mass pathway analysis based on an ocean reanalysis product. The 1997–98 EP‐El Niño was associated with a larger reduction of chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and the 2009–10 CP‐El Niño was associated with a larger reduction of chl‐a in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). These biological responses were dependent on the strength and extent of westerly wind anomalies and their impact on horizontal and vertical processes. Horizontal advection was the primary contributor to differences in chl‐a between the two El Niño events in the CEP, whereas vertical advection and mixing were the dominant processes in the EEP. Key Points Distinct biological differences to central and eastern Pacific Ninos Horizontal advection caused chl‐a differences in the central Pacific Vertical advection/mixing caused chl‐a differences in the eastern Pacific

Coral reefs are rapidly declining due to local environmental degradation and global climate change. In particular, corals are vulnerable to ocean heating. Anomalously hot sea surface temperatures (SSTs) create conditions for severe bleaching or direct thermal death. We use SST observations and CMIP6 model SST to project thermal conditions at reef locations at a resolution of 1 km, a 16‐fold improvement over prior studies, under four climate emissions scenarios. We use a novel statistical downscaling method which is significantly more skillful than the standard method, especially at near‐coastal pixels where many reefs are found. For each location we present projections of thermal departure (TD, the date after which a location with steadily increasing heat exceeds a given thermal metric) for severe bleaching recurs every 5 years (TD5Y) and every 10 years (TD10Y), accounting for a range of post‐bleaching reef recovery/degradation. As of 2021, we find that over 91% and 79% of 1 km2 reefs have exceeded TD10Y and TD5Y, respectively, suggesting that widespread long‐term coral degradation is no longer avoidable. We project 99% of 1 km2 reefs to exceed TD5Y by 2034, 2036, and 2040 under SSP5‐8.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP2‐4.5 respectively. We project that 2%–5% of reef locations remain below TD5Y at 1.5°C of mean global heating, but 0% remain at 2.0°C. These results demonstrate the importance of further improving ecological projection capacity for climate‐vulnerable marine and terrestrial species and ecosystems, including identifying refugia and guiding conservation efforts. Ultimately, saving coral reefs will require rapidly reducing and eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Plain Language Summary Coral reefs face many challenges, but the most serious is climate change. Hotter oceans can kill corals via expulsion of their food‐producing algae and eventual starvation, or by cooking them to death. We used satellite data and the latest global Earth system models to project when the world's coral reefs are expected to surpass a severe bleaching temperature threshold at 1‐km‐square locations. To account for post‐bleaching coral recovery times, we project the year after which each location will experience bleaching conditions at least once per 5 and 10 years. As of 2021, we estimate that over 91% and 79% of reef locations will experience bleaching conditions at least once per 10 and 5 years, respectively, suggesting that widespread long‐term coral degradation is no longer avoidable. We estimate that 99% of reefs will experience bleaching conditions every 5 years by 2040, 2036, and 2034 under progressively higher future emissions scenarios (SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5). These results demonstrate the importance of improving ecological projection capacity for climate‐vulnerable marine and terrestrial species and ecosystems, including identifying refuge locations and guiding conservation efforts, and rapidly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Key Points We project over 91 percent of coral reefs will now experience severe‐bleaching‐level ocean heat recurring at least once every 10 years We project over 99 percent of reefs will experience severe‐bleaching‐level ocean heat at least twice per 10 years by 2036 under SSP3‐7.0 We find SSP1‐2.6 to be the only scenario not consistent with near‐complete global severe degradation or loss of coral reefs

The Western Antarctic Peninsula is undergoing rapid environmental change. Regional warming is causing increased glacial meltwater discharge, but the ecological impact of this meltwater over large spatiotemporal scales is not well understood. Here, we leverage 20 years of remote sensing data, reanalysis products, and field observations to assess the effects of sea surface glacial meltwater on phytoplankton biomass and highlight its importance as a key environmental driver for this region’s productive ecosystem. We find a strong correlation between meltwater and phytoplankton chlorophyll-a across multiple time scales and datasets. We attribute this relationship to nutrient fertilization by glacial meltwater, with potential additional contribution from surface ocean stabilization associated with sea-ice presence. While high phytoplankton biomass typically follows prolonged winter sea-ice seasons and depends on the interplay between light and nutrient limitation, our results indicate that the positive effects of increased glacial meltwater on phytoplankton communities likely mitigate the negative impact of sea-ice loss in this region in recent years. Our findings underscore the critical need to consider glacial meltwater as a key ecological driver in polar coastal ecosystems. Increased glacial melt is strongly correlated with phytoplankton chlorophyll-a, according to analysis of remote sensing, reanalysis products, and field observations from the West Antarctic Peninsula.

In this study, we examine the capabilities of the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Aqua Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for monitoring the environmental impact of the 2015 Hyperion Treatment Plant (HTP) wastewater diversion in Santa Monica Bay, California. From 21 September – 2 November 2015, the HTP discharged approximately 39×103 m3 h-1 of treated wastewater into Santa Monica Bay through their emergency 1-mile outfall pipe. Multi-sensor satellite remote sensing was employed to determine the biophysical impact of discharged wastewater in the shallow nearshore environment. Landsat 8 TIRS observed decreased sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with the surfacing wastewater plume. Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations derived from Landsat 8 OLI and Aqua MODIS satellite sensors were used to monitor the biological response to the addition of nutrient-rich wastewater. In situ chl-a and in situ remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) were measured before, during, and after the diversion event. These in situ data were paired with coincident OLI and MODIS satellite data to yield a more comprehensive view of the changing conditions in Santa Monica Bay due to the wastewater diversion. Two new local chl-a algorithms were empirically derived using in situ data for the OLI and MODIS sensors. These new local chl-a algorithms proved more accurate at measuring chl-a changes in Santa Monica Bay compared to the standard open ocean OC2 and OC3M algorithms, and the regional southern California CALFIT algorithm, as validated by in situ chl-a measurements. Additionally, the local OLI algorithm outperformed the local MODIS algorithm, especially in the nearshore region. A time series of chl-a, as detected by the local OLI chl-a algorithm, illustrated a very large increase in chl-a concentrations during the wastewater diversion, and a subsequent decrease in chl-a after the diversion. Our study demonstrates the capability of using Landsat 8 TIRS and OLI sensors for the monitoring of SST and surface chl-a concentrations at high spatial resolution in nearshore waters and highlights the value of these sensors for assessing the environmental effects of wastewater discharge in a coastal environment.

The El Niño Modoki in 2010 led to historic droughts in Brazil. In order to understand its impact on carbon cycle variability, we derive the 2011–2010 annual carbon flux change (δF↑) globally and specifically to Brazil using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS‐Flux) framework. Satellite observations of CO2, CO, and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) are ingested into a 4D‐variational assimilation system driven by carbon cycle models to infer spatially resolved carbon fluxes including net ecosystem production, biomass burning, and gross primary productivity (GPP). The global 2011–2010 net carbon flux change was estimated to be δF↑=−1.60 PgC, while the Brazilian carbon flux change was −0.24 ± 0.11 PgC. This estimate is broadly within the uncertainty of previous aircraft‐based estimates restricted to the Amazon basin. The 2011–2010 biomass burning change in Brazil was −0.24 ± 0.036 PgC, which implies a near‐zero 2011–2010 change of the net ecosystem production (NEP): The near‐zero NEP change is the result of quantitatively comparable increases GPP (0.31 ± 0.20 PgC) and respiration in 2011. Comparisons between Brazilian and global component carbon flux changes reveal complex interactions between the processes controlling annual land‐atmosphere CO2 exchanges. These results show the potential of multiple satellite observations to help quantify and spatially resolve the response of productivity and respiration fluxes to climate variability. Plain Language Summary We quantify the global and Brazilian carbon response to 2010 El Niño using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS‐Flux) framework. Satellite observations of CO2 , CO, and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) are ingested into a 4D‐variational assimilation system driven by carbon cycle models to infer spatially resolved carbon fluxes including net ecosystem exchange, biomass burning, and gross primary productivity (GPP). We show that CO2 biomass burning from Brazil was both the dominant driver of net carbon exchange in Brazil and the dominant contributor to the global biomass burning from 2011–2010. Key Points Global and Brazilian annual net, fire, and GPP CO2 flux for 2010–2011 was estimated with assimilated satellite data Fire from Brazil (−0.24 ± 0.11 Pg C) dominated the global biomass burning 2011–2010 carbon flux change The positive Brazilian GPP change was symmetrically balanced by total ecosystem respiration