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Global support for Conservation Agriculture (CA) as a pathway to Sustainable Intensification is strong. CA revolves around three principles: no-till (or minimal soil disturbance), soil cover, and crop rotation. The benefits arising from the ease of crop management, energy/cost/time savings, and soil and water conservation led to widespread adoption of CA, particularly on large farms in the Americas and Australia, where farmers harness the tools of modern science: highly-sophisticated machines, potent agrochemicals, and biotechnology. Over the past 10 years CA has been promoted among smallholder farmers in the (sub-) tropics, often with disappointing results. Growing evidence challenges the claims that CA increases crop yields and builds-up soil carbon although increased stability of crop yields in dry climates is evident. Our analyses suggest pragmatic adoption on larger mechanized farms, and limited uptake of CA by smallholder farmers in developing countries. We propose a rigorous, context-sensitive approach based on Systems Agronomy to analyze and explore sustainable intensification options, including the potential of CA. There is an urgent need to move beyond dogma and prescriptive approaches to provide soil and crop management options for farmers to enable the Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.

Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965–2007 in Europe (1,115 kg⋅ha–1 of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg⋅ha–1). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700–790 kg⋅ha–1 of cropland (in total 1,070–1,200 teragrams P) is required to achieve crop production according to the various Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios [Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Cramer W (2006) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Vol 2, pp 279–354]. We estimate that average global P fertilizer use must change from the current 17.8 to 16.8–20.8 teragrams per year in 2050, which is up to 50% less than other estimates in the literature that ignore the role of residual soil P.

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa need to increase to keep pace with food demands from the burgeoning population. Smallholder farmers play an important role in national food self-sufficiency, yet many live in poverty. Investing in inputs to increase yields is therefore often not viable for them. To investigate how to unlock this paradox, whole-farm experiments can reveal which incentives could increase farm production while also increasing household income. In this study we investigated the impact of providing farmers with a US$ 100 input voucher each season, for five seasons in a row, on maize yields and overall farm-level production in two contrasting locations in terms of population density, Vihiga and Busia, in western Kenya. We compared the value of farmers’ produce with the poverty line and the living income threshold. Crop yields were mainly limited by cash constraints and not by technological constraints as maize yield immediately increased from 16% to 40–50% of the water-limited yield with the provision of the voucher. In Vihiga, at best, one-third of the participating households reached the poverty line. In Busia half of the households reached the poverty line and one-third obtained a living income. This difference between locations was caused by larger farm areas in Busia. Although one third of the households increased the area farmed, mostly by renting land, this was not enough for them to obtain a living income. Our results provide empirical evidence of how a current smallholder farming system could improve its productivity and value of produce upon the introduction of an input voucher. We conclude that increasing yields of the currently most common crops cannot provide a living income for all households and additional institutional changes, such as alternative employment, are required to provide smallholder farmers a way out of poverty.

We calculated a simple indicator of food availability using data from 93 sites in 17 countries across contrasted agroecologies in sub-Saharan Africa (>13,000 farm households) and analyzed the drivers of variations in food availability. Crop production was the major source of energy, contributing 60% of food availability. The off-farm income contribution to food availability ranged from 12% for households without enough food available (18% of the total sample) to 27% for the 58% of households with sufficient food available. Using only three explanatory variables (household size, number of livestock, and land area), we were able to predict correctly the agricultural determined status of food availability for 72% of the households, but the relationships were strongly influenced by the degree of market access. Our analyses suggest that targeting poverty through improving market access and off-farm opportunities is a better strategy to increase food security than focusing on agricultural production and closing yield gaps. This calls for multisectoral policy harmonization, incentives, and diversification of employment sources rather than a singular focus on agricultural development. Recognizing and understanding diversity among smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa is key for the design of policies that aim to improve food security.

ABSTRACT Rhizobia are soilborne bacteria that form symbiotic relations with legumes and fix atmospheric nitrogen. The nitrogen fixation potential depends on several factors such as the type of host and symbionts and on environmental factors that affect the distribution of rhizobia. We isolated bacteria nodulating common bean in Southern Ethiopia to evaluate their genetic diversity and phylogeography at nucleotide, locus (gene/haplotype) and species levels of genetic hierarchy. Phylogenetically, eight rhizobial genospecies (including previous collections) were determined that had less genetic diversity than found among reference strains. The limited genetic diversity of the Ethiopian collections was due to absence of many of the Rhizobium lineages known to nodulate beans. Rhizobium etli and Rhizobiumphaseoli were predominant strains of bean-nodulating rhizobia in Ethiopia. We found no evidence for a phylogeographic pattern in strain distribution. However, joint analysis of the current and previous collections revealed differences between the two collections at nucleotide level of genetic hierarchy. The differences were due to genospecies Rhizobium aethiopicum that was only isolated in the earlier collection. There is a substantial genetic diversity of bean rhizobia but with no local geographic structure in Ethiopia.

East African highland banana ( Musa acuminata genome group AAA-EA; hereafter referred to as banana) is critical for Uganda’s food supply, hence our aim to map current distribution and to understand changes in banana production areas over the past five decades. We collected banana presence/absence data through an online survey based on high-resolution satellite images and coupled this data with independent covariates as inputs for ensemble machine learning prediction of current banana distribution. We assessed geographic shifts of production areas using spatially explicit differences between the 1958 and 2016 banana distribution maps. The biophysical factors associated with banana spatial distribution and geographic shift were determined using a logistic regression model and classification and regression tree, respectively. Ensemble models were superior (AUC = 0.895; 0.907) compared to their constituent algorithms trained with 12 and 17 covariates, respectively: random forests (AUC = 0.883; 0.901), gradient boosting machines (AUC = 0.878; 0.903), and neural networks (AUC = 0.870; 0.890). The logistic regression model (AUC = 0.879) performance was similar to that for the ensemble model and its constituent algorithms. In 2016, banana cultivation was concentrated in the western (44%) and central (36%) regions, while only a small proportion was in the eastern (18%) and northern (2%) regions. About 60% of increased cultivation since 1958 was in the western region; 50% of decreased cultivation in the eastern region; and 44% of continued cultivation in the central region. Soil organic carbon, soil pH, annual precipitation, slope gradient, bulk density and blue reflectance were associated with increased banana cultivation while precipitation seasonality and mean annual temperature were associated with decreased banana cultivation over the past 50 years. The maps of spatial distribution and geographic shift of banana can support targeting of context-specific intensification options and policy advocacy to avert agriculture driven environmental degradation.

Food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) provide guidance to policy makers, the private sector and consumers to redesign food systems and to improve diets of vulnerable populations. As appropriate FBDGs are based on the actual dietary patterns and their costs, it is assumed that the recommended foods are available, affordable and acceptable for the population under study. Using quantitative dietary intake data of young children in rural Northern Ghana, we developed local FBDGs and studied whether these are supported by the diversity and quantity of the production of a household among 329 households. We found that 40% of rural Northern Ghanaian infants and young children were stunted and their nutrient intakes were far below the recommendations: the probability of adequacy for most nutrient intakes was less than 50%. At household level, the developed FBDGs were, on average, unable to sufficiently cover the household requirements for fat (60.4% of recommended nutrient intake (RNI)), calcium (34.3% RNI), iron (60.3% RNI), vitamin A (39.1% RNI), vitamin B12 (2.3% RNI) and vitamin C (54.6% RNI). This implies that even when these FBDGs are fully adopted the requirements for these nutrients will not be met. In addition, the nutrient needs and food needs (according to the developed FBDGs) of a household were only marginally covered by their own food production. The food production of over half the households supplied insufficient calcium (75.7%), vitamin A (100%), vitamin B12 (100%) and vitamin C (77.5%) to cover their needs. The food production of about 60% of the households did not cover their required quantities of grains and legumes and none covered their required quantities of vegetables. Further analysis of the food gaps at district and national level showed that sufficient grains were available at both levels (267% and 148%, respectively) to meet requirements; availability of legumes was sufficient at district level (268%) but not at national level (52%); and vegetables were insufficient at both levels (2% and 49%, respectively). Diversifying household food production is often proposed as a means to increase the diversity of foods available and thereby increasing dietary diversity of rural populations. We found that the diversity of the production of a household was indeed positively related with their food and nutrient coverage. However, the diversity of the production of a household and their food and nutrient coverage were not related with children's dietary diversity and nutrient adequacy. Our results show that the production of a households does not support the adoption of FBDGs in rural Northern Ghana, especially for vegetables. This suggests that the promotion of FBDGs through nutrition education or behaviour change communications activities alone is insufficient to lead to improvements in diets. Additional strategies are needed to increase the food availability and accessibility of the households, especially that of fruits and vegetables, such as diversification of the crops grown, increased production of specific crops and market-based strategies.

The continuous rise in the global demand for palm oil has resulted in large-scale expansion of industrial oil palm plantations-largely at the expense of primary and secondary forests. The potentially negative environmental impacts of these conversions have given rise to closer scrutiny. However, empirical data on the effects of conversion of forests to industrial oil palm plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is scarce and patchy. We evaluated the changes in SOC stocks after conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantations over the first and second rotation period in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Soil samples were collected from three age classes of oil palm plantations converted from forest (49, 39 and 29 years ago respectively) with three replicate sites and four adjacent primary forest sites as reference. In each site under oil palm, the three management zones, namely weeded circle (WC), frond stacks (FS), and between palm (BP), were sampled separately. All soil samples were collected from five soil layers (0-5, 5-15, 15-30, 30-50 and 50-70 cm). Samples were analysed for SOC concentration, soil bulk density, pH and soil texture. Results showed SOC stocks declined by 42%, 24% and 18% after 29, 39 and 49 years of conversion respectively. Significant differences in SOC stocks were found among different management zones in the oil palm plantations, and the trend was similar for all age classes: FS > WC > BP, demonstrating the necessity of considering within-plantation variability when assessing soil C stocks. The largest differences between SOC stocks of the reference forest and converted plantations were found in the topsoil (0-15 cm depth) but differences were also found in the subsoil (>30 cm). Our results will contribute towards future modelling and life cycle accounting to calculate the carbon debt from the conversion of forest to oil palm plantations.

Background Grain legumes are appreciated for their contribution to dietary protein and micronutrient intake in addition to their benefits in providing income and replenishing soil fertility. They offer potential benefits in developing countries where future food demand is increasing and both undernutrition and overweight co-exist. We studied the current and potential role of grain legumes on protein, both quantity and quality, and micronutrient adequacy in the diet of rural Ghanaian infants and young children. Methods Energy and nutrient (including amino acids) intakes of breastfed children of 6-8 months ( n =97), 9-11 months ( n =97), 12-23 months ( n =114), and non-breastfed children of 12-23 months ( n =29) from Karaga district in Northern Ghana were assessed using a repeated quantitative multi-pass 24-hour recall method. Food-based dietary guidelines that cover nutrient adequacy within the constraints of local current dietary patterns were designed using the linear programming software Optifood (version 4.0.9, Optifood©). Optifood was also used to evaluate whether additional legumes would further improve nutrient adequacy. Results We found that 60% of the children currently consumed legumes with an average portion size of 20 g per day (cooked) contributing more than 10% of their total protein, folate, iron and niacin intake. The final sets of food-based recommendations included legumes and provided adequate protein and essential amino acids but insufficient calcium, iron, niacin and/or zinc among breastfed children and insufficient calcium, vitamin C, vitamin B12 and vitamin A among non-breastfed children. The sets of food-based recommendations combined with extra legumes on top of the current dietary pattern improved adequacy of calcium, iron, niacin and zinc but only reached sufficient amounts for calcium among breastfed children of 6-8 months old. Conclusions Although legumes are often said to be the ‘meat of the poor’ and current grain legume consumption among rural children contribute to protein intake, the main nutritional benefit of increased legume consumption is improvement of micronutrient adequacy. Besides food-based recommendations, other interventions are needed such as food-based approaches and/or fortification or supplementation strategies to improve micronutrient adequacy of infants and young children in rural Ghana. Trial registration Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research Institutional Review Board (NMIMR-IRB CPN 087/13-14).

To target food security interventions for smallholder households, decision makers need large-scale information, such as maps on poverty, food security and key livelihood activities. Such information is often based on expert knowledge or aggregated data, despite the fact that food security and poverty are driven largely by processes at the household level. At present, it is unclear if and how household level information can contribute to the spatial prediction of such welfare indicators or to what extent local variability is ignored by current mapping efforts. A combination of geo-referenced household level information with spatially continuous information is an underused approach to quantify local and large-scale variation, while it can provide a direct estimate of the variability of welfare indicators at the most relevant scale. We applied a stepwise regression kriging procedure to translate point information to spatially explicit patterns and create country-wide predictions with associated uncertainty estimates for indicators on food availability and related livelihood activities using household survey data from Uganda. With few exceptions, predictions of the indicators were weak, highlighting the difficulty in capturing variability at larger scale. Household explanatory variables identified little additional variation compared to environmental explanatory variables alone. Spatial predictability was strongest for indicators whose distribution was determined by environmental gradients. In contrast, indicators of crops that were more ubiquitously present across agroecological zones showed large local variation, which often overruled large-scale patterns. Our procedure adds to existing approaches that often only show large-scale patterns by revealing that local variation in welfare is large. Interventions that aim to target the poor must recognise that diversity in livelihood activities for income generation within any given area often overrides the variability of livelihood activities between distant regions in the country.