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Although theoretically predicted, the simultaneous excitation of several resonant modes in sunspots has not been observed. Like any harmonic oscillator, a solar magnetic flux tube can support a variety of resonances, which constitute the natural response of the system to external forcing. Apart from a few single low order eigenmodes in small scale magnetic structures, several simultaneous resonant modes were not found in extremely large sunspots. Here we report the detection of the largest-scale coherent oscillations observed in a sunspot, with a spectrum significantly different from the Sun’s global acoustic oscillations, incorporating a superposition of many resonant wave modes. Magnetohydrodynamic numerical modeling agrees with the observations. Our findings not only demonstrate the possible excitation of coherent oscillations over spatial scales as large as 30–40 Mm in extreme magnetic flux regions in the solar atmosphere, but also paves the way for their diagnostic applications in other astrophysical contexts. Co-existence of several magnetohydrodynamic oscillations modes on the Sun were predicted earlier. Here, the authors show large-scale coherent oscillations in a sunspot, with a spectrum different than solar global acoustic oscillations, incorporating a superposition of many resonant wave modes.

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi 2013). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6–9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper.

A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.

Locus Coeruleus (LC) is the main noradrenergic nucleus of the brain, which is involved in many physiological functions including cognition; its impairment may be crucial in the neurobiology of a variety of brain diseases. Locus Coeruleus-Magnetic Resonance Imaging (LC-MRI) allows to identify in vivo LC in humans. Thus, a variety of research teams have been using LC-MRI to estimate LC integrity in normal aging and in patients affected by neurodegenerative disorders, where LC integrity my work as a biomarker. A number of variations between LC-MRI studies exist, concerning post-acquisition analysis and whether this had been performed within MRI native space or in ad hoc -built MRI template space. Moreover, the reproducibility and reliability of this tool is still to be explored. Therefore, in the present study, we analyzed a group of neurologically healthy, cognitively intact elderly subjects, using both a native space- and a template space-based LC-MRI analysis. We found a good inter-method agreement, particularly considering the LC Contrast Ratio. The template space-based approach provided a higher spatial resolution, lower operator-dependency, and allowed the analysis of LC topography. Our ad hoc -developed LC template showed LC morphological data that were in line with templates published very recently. Remarkably, present data significantly overlapped with a recently published LC “metaMask”, that had been obtained by averaging the results of a variety of previous LC-MRI studies. Thus, such a template space-based approach may pave the way to a standardized LC-MRI analysis and to be used in future clinic–anatomical correlations.

Future changes of heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) in the 21st century over mainland China are projected with a regional climate model to investigate the potential effects of climate change on energy demand in the household sector. Validation of the model shows a good performance in reproducing the spatial distribution, magnitude and interannual variability of the present day HDD and CDD. Significant decreases in HDD and increases in CDD are projected under the warming. These are further weighted by population projections for a first-order assessment of future changes in energy demand. A larger decrease in population-weighted regional mean HDD compared to the increase in CDD is projected, indicating a decrease of about 15% in potential energy demand for different periods and scenarios in the future. In addition, the simulations show a marked spatial heterogeneity in the change in energy demand. Specifically, we find increases in both heating and cooling demand in parts of northern China due to the increased population there, an increase in cooling demand in the south and decreases in heating demand in the northernmost and western regions. Furthermore, a seasonal shift occurs, with increasing demand in summer and a decrease in winter. Finally, when the future reference temperatures for household heating and cooling change from standards currently used in China to values closer to those in Europe and the USA, potentially large increases in energy demand (~80%) are expected, illustrating the importance of policy decisions concerning household heating and cooling.

A new version of the RegCM regional climate modeling system, RegCM4, has been recently developed and made available for public use. Compared to previous versions, RegCM4 includes new land surface, planetary boundary layer, and air–sea flux schemes, a mixed convection and tropical band configuration, modifications to the pre-existing radiative transfer and boundary layer schemes, and a full upgrade of the model code towards improved flexibility, portability, and user friendliness. The model can be interactively coupled to a 1D lake model, a simplified aerosol scheme (including organic carbon, black carbon, SO₄, dust, and sea spray), and a gas phase chemistry module (CBM-Z). After a general description of the model, a series of test experiments are presented over 4 domains prescribed under the CORDEX framework (Africa, South America, East Asia, and Europe) to provide illustrative examples of the model behavior and sensitivities under different climatic regimes. These experiments indicate that, overall, RegCM4 shows an improved performance in several respects compared to previous versions, although further testing by the user community is needed to fully explore its sensitivities and range of applications.

The Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana in the Ethiopian Highlands and contributes about 60–69% of the main Nile discharge. Previous studies investigated the relationship of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region) to occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Nile Basin. In this paper we focus on the dependence of occurrence of droughts and floods in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile on the timing of El Niño and La Niña events. Different events start at different times of the year and follow each other, exhibiting different patterns and sequences. Here we study the impact of these timing and temporal patterns on the Blue Nile droughts and floods. The comparison between the discharge measurements (1965–2012) at the outlet of the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and the El Niño index shows that when an El Niño event is followed by a La Niña event, there is a 67% chance for occurrence of an extreme flood. Furthermore, we also found that 83% of El Niño events starting in April–June resulted in droughts in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile. Although the current study is limited by the reduced number of samples, we propose that observations as well as global model forecasts of SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of the Blue Nile flow.

Because of their dependence on water, natural and human systems are highly sensitive to changes in the hydrologic cycle. The authors introduce a new measure of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT), which integrates metrics of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, viewing the response of these two metrics to global warming as deeply interconnected. Using a suite of global and regional climate model experiments, it is found that increasing HY-INT is a consistent and ubiquitous signature of twenty-first-century, greenhouse gas–induced global warming. Depending on the region, the increase in HY-INT is due to an increase in precipitation intensity, dry spell length, or both. Late twentieth-century observations also exhibit dominant positive HY-INT trends, providing a hydroclimatic signature of late twentieth-century warming. The authors find that increasing HY-INT is physically consistent with the response of both precipitation intensity and dry spell length to global warming. Precipitation intensity increases because of increased atmospheric water holding capacity. However, increases in mean precipitation are tied to increases in surface evaporation rates, which are lower than for atmospheric moisture. This leads to a reduction in the number of wet days and an increase in dry spell length. This analysis identifies increasing hydroclimatic intensity as a robust integrated response to global warming, implying increasing risks for systems that are sensitive to wet and dry extremes and providing a potential target for detection and attribution of hydroclimatic changes.

We analyze a transient climate change simulation for the 21st century (1980–2100) over a large all‐Africa domain carried out with the RegCM3 regional model driven by the ECHAM5 global model. We focus the analysis on a comparison between the driving and nested model runs. For present climate, the two models show temperature and precipitation biases of similar magnitude but different spatial patterns. In particular the bias patterns in the regional model driven by ECHAM5 are more similar to those of a regional simulation driven by ERA Interim reanalysis fields than to the bias patterns in the present climate simulation by ECHAM5 itself. In the transient simulation, while the temperature changes are strongly driven by the global model, the precipitation change patterns are more different between the global and regional models, particularly over the West Africa and Sahel regions. A targeted analysis suggests that this is due to the different simulation by the two models of the local response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation forcing and of local soil moisture/precipitation feedbacks. Our results thus indicate that local processes and internal model physics and characteristics are important elements in determining the precipitation change signal simulated by the nested regional model in this large domain experiment, especially over equatorial and tropical regions. This adds an element of uncertainty that needs to be address through the use of ensembles of regional model experiments as planned in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Key Points For present climate the models show rainfall biases with different spatial patterns The precipitation change patterns are more different over West Africa and Sahel Differences due to local response to ENSO forcing and soil moisture/precipitation

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.