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The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 \"sinks\" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\\\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

Carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements across the Amazon basin for 2010 and 2011 reveal that drought rather than temperature caused the observed halt in forest productivity during the anomalously dry year of 2010. The Amazon basin — sink or source? Amazonia stores large amounts of carbon, but our understanding of the sensitivity of the tropical terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies remains uncertain. An analysis of seasonal and annual carbon balances based on basin-wide atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide and monoxide for anomalously dry and wet years together with forest plot data suggest that water availability has an important role in determining the carbon balance in the Amazon basin. Drought reduced plant production and limited the amount of carbon that could be stored in vegetation; at the same time large amounts of carbon were released by fire during the dry year. The region was carbon neutral during the wet year, because of reduced carbon loss through fires and increased carbon uptake by vegetation. Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate 1 , 2 . Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain 3 , 4 . The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon 5 , and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades 6 . Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48 ± 0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr −1 ) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06 ± 0.1 Pg C yr −1 ) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25 ± 0.14 Pg C yr −1 , which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr −1 previously estimated from forest censuses 7 . Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists 6 , the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

Land–atmosphere interactions have an important influence on Amazon precipitation (P), but evaluation of these processes in climate models has so far been limited. We analysed relationships between Amazon P and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models to evaluate controls on surface moisture fluxes and assess the credibility of regional P projections. We found that only 13 out of 38 models captured an energy limitation on Amazon ET, in agreement with observations, while 20 models instead showed Amazon ET is limited by water availability. Models that misrepresented controls on ET over the historical period projected both large increases and decreases in Amazon P by 2100, likely amplified by unrealistic land–atmosphere interactions. In contrast, large future changes in annual and seasonal-scale Amazon P were suppressed in models that simulated realistic controls on ET, due to modulating land–atmosphere interactions. By discounting projections from models that simulated unrealistic ET controls, our analysis halved uncertainty in basin-wide future P change. The ensemble mean of plausible models showed a robust drying signal over the eastern Amazon and in the dry season, and P increases in the west. Finally, we showed that factors controlling Amazon ET evolve over time in realistic models, reducing climate stability and leaving the region vulnerable to further change.

Through 1959-2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS ), the combined land-ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2 . Using a carbon-climate model, we attribute the decline in kS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (~ 35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (~ 25%), sink responses to climate change (~ 20%), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2 , mainly oceanic (~ 20%). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 . Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in kS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon-climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime.

We show here an updated estimate of the net land carbon sink (NLS) as a function of time from 1960 to 2007 calculated from the difference between fossil fuel emissions, the observed atmospheric growth rate, and the ocean uptake obtained by recent ocean model simulations forced with reanalysis wind stress and heat and water fluxes. Except for interannual variability, the net land carbon sink appears to have been relatively constant at a mean value of −0.27 Pg C yr−1 between 1960 and 1988, at which time it increased abruptly by −0.88 (−0.77 to −1.04) Pg C yr−1 to a new relatively constant mean of −1.15 Pg C yr−1 between 1989 and 2003/7 (the sign convention is negative out of the atmosphere). This result is detectable at the 99% level using a t-test. The land use source (LU) is relatively constant over this entire time interval. While the LU estimate is highly uncertain, this does imply that most of the change in the net land carbon sink must be due to an abrupt increase in the land sink, LS = NLS – LU, in response to some as yet unknown combination of biogeochemical and climate forcing. A regional synthesis and assessment of the land carbon sources and sinks over the post 1988/1989 period reveals broad agreement that the Northern Hemisphere land is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but there remain major discrepancies with regard to the sign and magnitude of the net flux to and from tropical land.

The ratio of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere to the CO2 flux into the atmosphere due to human activity, the airborne fraction AF, is central to predict changes in earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas induced warming. This ratio has remained remarkably constant in the past five decades, but recent studies have reported an apparent increasing trend and interpreted it as an indication for a decrease in the efficiency of the combined sinks by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We investigate here whether this interpretation is correct by analyzing the processes that control long-term trends and decadal-scale variations in the AF. To this end, we use simplified linear models for describing the time evolution of an atmospheric CO2 perturbation. We find firstly that the spin-up time of the system for the AF to converge to a constant value is on the order of 200-300 years and differs depending on whether exponentially increasing fossil fuel emissions only or the sum of fossil fuel and land use emissions are used. We find secondly that the primary control on the decadal time-scale variations of the AF is variations in the relative growth rate of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Changes in sink efficiencies tend to leave a smaller imprint. Therefore, before interpreting trends in the AF as an indication of weakening carbon sink efficiency, it is necessary to account for trends and variations in AF stemming from anthropogenic emissions and other extrinsic forcing events, such as volcanic eruptions. Using atmospheric CO2 data and emission estimates for the period 1959 through 2006, and our simple predictive models for the AF, we find that likely omissions in the reported emissions from land use change and extrinsic forcing events are sufficient to explain the observed long-term trend in AF. Therefore, claims for a decreasing long-term trend in the carbon sink efficiency over the last few decades are currently not supported by atmospheric CO2 data and anthropogenic emissions estimates.

We summarise the contemporary carbon budget of South America and relate it to its dominant controls: population and economic growth, changes in land use practices and a changing atmospheric environment and climate. Component flux estimate methods we consider sufficiently reliable for this purpose encompass fossil fuel emission inventories, biometric analysis of old-growth rainforests, estimation of carbon release associated with deforestation based on remote sensing and inventories, and agricultural export data. Alternative methods for the estimation of the continental-scale net land to atmosphere CO2 flux, such as atmospheric transport inverse modelling and terrestrial biosphere model predictions, are, we find, hampered by the data paucity, and improved parameterisation and validation exercises are required before reliable estimates can be obtained. From our analysis of available data, we suggest that South America was a net source to the atmosphere during the 1980s (~ 0.3–0.4 Pg C a−1) and close to neutral (~ 0.1 Pg C a−1) in the 1990s. During the latter period, carbon uptake in old-growth forests nearly compensated for the carbon release associated with fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Annual mean precipitation over tropical South America as inferred from Amazon River discharge shows a long-term upward trend. Although, over the last decade dry seasons have tended to be drier, with the years 2005 and 2010 in particular experiencing strong droughts. On the other hand, precipitation during the wet seasons also shows an increasing trend. Air temperatures have also increased slightly. Also with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is currently unclear what effect these climate changes are having on the forest carbon balance of the region. Current indications are that the forests of the Amazon Basin have acted as a substantial long-term carbon sink, but with the most recent measurements suggesting that this sink may be weakening. Economic development of the tropical regions of the continent is advancing steadily, with exports of agricultural products being an important driver and witnessing a strong upturn over the last decade.

ABSTRACTGliomas, particularly glioblastoma multiforme, perturb the blood-brain barrier and cause brain edema that contributes to morbidity and mortality. The mechanisms underlying this vasogenic edema are poorly understood. We examined the effects of cocultured primary cultured human glioblastoma cells and glioma-derived growth factors on the endothelial cell tight junction proteins claudin 1, claudin 5, occludin, and zonula occludens 1 of brain-derived microvascular endothelial cells and a human umbilical vein endothelial cell line. Cocultured glioblastoma cells and glioma-derived factors (e.g. transforming growth factor β2) enhanced the paracellular flux of endothelial cell monolayers in conjunction with downregulation of the tight junction proteins. Neutralizing anti-transforming growth factor β2 antibodies partially restored the barrier properties in this in vitro blood-brain barrier model. The involvement of endothelial cell-derived matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) was demonstrated by quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis and by the determination of MMP activities via zymography and fluorometry in the presence or absence of the MMP inhibitor GM6001. Occludin, claudin 1, and claudin 5 were expressed in microvascular endothelial cells in nonneoplastic brain samples but were significantly reduced in anaplastic astrocytoma and glioblastoma samples. Taken together, these in vitro and in vivo results indicate that glioma-derived factors may induce MMPs and downregulate endothelial tight junction protein and, thus, play a key role in glioma-induced impairment of the blood-brain barrier.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide increased at a rate of 2.8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year$^{-1}$) during 1988 to 1992 (1 Pg = 10$^{15}$ grams). Given estimates of fossil carbon dioxide emissions, and net oceanic uptake, this implies a global terrestrial uptake of 1.0 to 2.2 Pg C year$^{-1}$. The spatial distribution of the terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake is estimated by means of the observed spatial patterns of the greatly increased atmospheric carbon dioxide data set available from 1988 onward, together with two atmospheric transport models, two estimates of the sea-air flux, and an estimate of the spatial distribution of fossil carbon dioxide emissions. North America is the best constrained continent, with a mean uptake of 1.7 ± 0.5 Pg C year$^{-1}$, mostly south of 51 degrees north. Eurasia-North Africa is relatively weakly constrained, with a mean uptake of 0.1 ± 0.6 Pg C year$^{-1}$. The rest of the world's land surface is poorly constrained, with a mean source of 0.2 ± 0.9 Pg C year$^{-1}$.

Despite the importance of soil processes for global biogeochemical cycles, our capability for predicting soil evolution over geological timescales is poorly constrained. We attempt to probe our understanding and predictive capability of this evolutionary process by developing a mechanistic soil evolution model, based on an existing model framework, and comparing the predictions with observations from soil chronosequences in Hawaii. Our soil evolution model includes the major processes of pedogenesis: mineral weathering, percolation of rainfall, leaching of solutes, surface erosion, bioturbation, the effects of vegetation in terms of organic matter input and nutrient cycling and can be applied to various bedrock compositions and climates. The specific properties the model simulates over timescales of tens to hundreds of thousand years are, soil depth, vertical profiles of elemental composition, soil solution pH and organic carbon distribution. We demonstrate with this model the significant role that vegetation plays in accelerating the rate of weathering and hence soil profile development. Comparisons with soils that have developed on Hawaiian basalts reveal a remarkably good agreement with Na, Ca and Mg profiles suggesting that the model captures well the key components of soil formation. Nevertheless, differences between modelled and observed K and P are substantial. The fact that these are important plant nutrients suggests that a process likely missing from our model is the active role of vegetation in selectively acquiring nutrients. This study therefore indirectly indicates the valuable role that vegetation can play in accelerating the weathering and thus release of these globally important nutrients into the biosphere.