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Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O’ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environmental and financial implications of seven planning scenarios encompassing contrasting land-use combinations including biofuel feedstocks, food crops, forestry, livestock, and residential development. All scenarios had positive financial return relative to the status quo of negative return. However, tradeoffs existed between carbon storage and water quality as well as between environmental improvement and financial return. Based on this analysis and community input, Kamehameha Schools is implementing a plan to support diversified agriculture and forestry. This plan generates a positive financial return ($10.9 million) and improved carbon storage (0.5% increase relative to status quo) with negative relative effects on water quality (15.4% increase in potential nitrogen export relative to status quo). The effects on water quality could be mitigated partially (reduced to a 4.9% increase in potential nitrogen export) by establishing vegetation buffers on agricultural fields. This plan contributes to policy goals for climate change mitigation, food security, and diversifying rural economic opportunities. More broadly, our approach illustrates how information can help guide local land-use decisions that involve tradeoffs between private and public interests.

Governments, development banks, corporations, and nonprofits are increasingly considering the potential contribution of watershed conservation activities to secure clean water for cities and to reduce flood risk. These organizations, however, often lack decision-relevant, initial screening information across multiple cities to identify which specific city-watershed combinations present not only water-related risks but also potentially attractive opportunities for mitigation via natural infrastructure approaches. To address this need, this paper presents a novel methodology for a continental assessment of the potential for watershed conservation activities to improve surface drinking water quality and mitigate riverine and stormwater flood risks in 70 major cities across Latin America. We used publicly available geospatial data to analyze 887 associated watersheds. Water quality metrics assessed the potential for agricultural practices, afforestation, riparian buffers, and forest conservation to mitigate sediment and phosphorus loads. Flood reduction metrics analyzed the role of increasing infiltration, restoring riparian wetlands, and reducing connected impervious surface to mitigate riverine and stormwater floods for exposed urban populations. Cities were then categorized based on relative opportunity potential to reduce identified risks through watershed conservation activities. We find high opportunities for watershed activities to mitigate at least one of the risks in 42 cities, potentially benefiting 96 million people or around 60% of the urbanites living in the 70 largest cities in Latin America. We estimate water quality could be improved for 72 million people in 27 cities, riverine flood risk mitigated for 5 million people in 13 cities, and stormwater flooding mitigated for 44 million people in 14 cities. We identified five cities with the potential to simultaneously enhance water quality and mitigate flood risks, and in contrast, six cities where conservation efforts are unlikely to meaningfully mitigate either risk. Institutions investing in natural infrastructure to improve water security in Latin America can maximize their impact by focusing on specific watershed conservation activities either for cleaner drinking water or flood mitigation in cities identified in our analysis where these interventions are most likely to reduce risk.

The approach common to well‐known conservation planning frameworks is rooted in values, like species persistence and quality habitat, and expectations resulting from conservation actions, like restoration and protection. We evaluated value‐focused thinking (VFT) as a framework for setting objectives based on personal or group values. Our approach included five steps: eliciting individual participant values, specifying objectives, organizing objectives, structuring multiple objectives, and a quality check. We implemented these steps with 12 conservation planning teams at a global conservation organization. We performed descriptive analyses based on comparisons between final group objectives and initial individual objectives as well as the quality check. We found that participants could only self‐identify a proportion of the team's objectives, which VFT strengthened. Participants were equally challenged with identifying means and ends objectives, contrasting with general VFT theory. Both experienced and newly formed teams effectively applied VFT. Our study formalizes a common‐sense approach to evaluating the underlying drivers of conservation planning so that its resulting outcomes can be most impactful. This study considered the role of values in conservation planning. We developed a five‐step objective‐setting process based on value‐focused thinking (VFT), a theoretical underpinning of decision analysis and structured decision‐making.

Innovative financial instruments are being created to reward conservation on private, working lands. Major design challenges remain, however, to make investments in biodiversity and ecosystem services economically attractive and commonplace. From a business perspective, three key financial barriers for advancing conservation land uses must frequently be addressed: high up-front costs, long time periods with no revenue, and high project risk due to long time horizons and uncertainty. We explored ways of overcoming these barriers on grazing lands in Hawaii by realizing a suite of timber and conservation revenue streams associated with their (partial) reforestation. We calculated the financial implications of alternative strategies, focusing on Acacia koa (\"koa\") forestry because of its high conservation and economic potential. Koa's timber value alone creates a viable investment (mean net present value = $453/acre), but its long time horizon and poor initial cash flow pose formidable challenges for landowners. At present, subsidy payments from a government conservation program targeting benefits for biodiversity, water quality, and soil erosion have the greatest potential to move landowners beyond the tipping point in favor of investments in koa forestry, particularly when combined with future timber harvest (mean net present value = $1,661/acre). Creating financial mechanisms to capture diverse ecosystem service values through time will broaden opportunities for conservation land uses. Governments, nongovernmental organizations, and private investors have roles to play in catalyzing this transition by developing new revenue streams that can reach a broad spectrum of landowners.

This paper provides models to forecast the popular vote for each of the two major political party candidates in the 2016 US presidential election and to explain the Electoral College outcome. One day prior to the election, the authors published forecasts online (https://finpolicy. georgetown.edu/) predicting Secretary Hillary Clinton would receive between 50.49 and 51.78 percent of the two-party popular vote. These forecasts were developed from economic and political models adapted from the work of Ray Fair. The final, certified vote count shows that Clinton's share of the two-party popular vote was 51.11 percent. For the second time in the current century, the winner of the popular vote was not elected to the Presidency. Given the difference between the winners of the popular vote and the electoral vote, the authors developed a state-by-state, cross-sectional probit model to explain Donald Trump 's Electoral College victory, based on voters ' economic, racial, and educational characteristics.

Wildfires have become an important source of particulate matter (PM2.5 < 2.5-μm diameter), leading to unhealthy air quality index occurrences in the western United States. Since people mainly shelter indoors during wildfire smoke events, the infiltration of wildfire PM2.5 into indoor environments is a key determinant of human exposure and is potentially controllable with appropriate awareness, infrastructure investment, and public education. Using time-resolved observations outside and inside more than 1,400 buildings from the crowdsourced PurpleAir sensor network in California, we found that the geometric mean infiltration ratios (indoor PM2.5 of outdoor origin/outdoor PM2.5) were reduced from 0.4 during non-fire days to 0.2 during wildfire days. Even with reduced infiltration, the mean indoor concentration of PM2.5 nearly tripled during wildfire events, with a lower infiltration in newer buildings and those utilizing air conditioning or filtration.

Bipolar disorders are a complex group of severe and chronic disorders that includes bipolar I disorder, defined by the presence of a syndromal, manic episode, and bipolar II disorder, defined by the presence of a syndromal, hypomanic episode and a major depressive episode. Bipolar disorders substantially reduce psychosocial functioning and are associated with a loss of approximately 10–20 potential years of life. The mortality gap between populations with bipolar disorders and the general population is principally a result of excess deaths from cardiovascular disease and suicide. Bipolar disorder has a high heritability (approximately 70%). Bipolar disorders share genetic risk alleles with other mental and medical disorders. Bipolar I has a closer genetic association with schizophrenia relative to bipolar II, which has a closer genetic association with major depressive disorder. Although the pathogenesis of bipolar disorders is unknown, implicated processes include disturbances in neuronal-glial plasticity, monoaminergic signalling, inflammatory homoeostasis, cellular metabolic pathways, and mitochondrial function. The high prevalence of childhood maltreatment in people with bipolar disorders and the association between childhood maltreatment and a more complex presentation of bipolar disorder (eg, one including suicidality) highlight the role of adverse environmental exposures on the presentation of bipolar disorders. Although mania defines bipolar I disorder, depressive episodes and symptoms dominate the longitudinal course of, and disproportionately account for morbidity and mortality in, bipolar disorders. Lithium is the gold standard mood-stabilising agent for the treatment of people with bipolar disorders, and has antimanic, antidepressant, and anti-suicide effects. Although antipsychotics are effective in treating mania, few antipsychotics have proven to be effective in bipolar depression. Divalproex and carbamazepine are effective in the treatment of acute mania and lamotrigine is effective at treating and preventing bipolar depression. Antidepressants are widely prescribed for bipolar disorders despite a paucity of compelling evidence for their short-term or long-term efficacy. Moreover, antidepressant prescription in bipolar disorder is associated, in many cases, with mood destabilisation, especially during maintenance treatment. Unfortunately, effective pharmacological treatments for bipolar disorders are not universally available, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Targeting medical and psychiatric comorbidity, integrating adjunctive psychosocial treatments, and involving caregivers have been shown to improve health outcomes for people with bipolar disorders. The aim of this Seminar, which is intended mainly for primary care physicians, is to provide an overview of diagnostic, pathogenetic, and treatment considerations in bipolar disorders. Towards the foregoing aim, we review and synthesise evidence on the epidemiology, mechanisms, screening, and treatment of bipolar disorders.

The evolution of atmospheric organic carbon as it undergoes oxidation has a controlling influence on concentrations of key atmospheric species, including particulate matter, ozone and oxidants. However, full characterization of organic carbon over hours to days of atmospheric processing has been stymied by its extreme chemical complexity. Here we study the multigenerational oxidation of α-pinene in the laboratory, characterizing products with several state-of-the-art analytical techniques. Although quantification of some early generation products remains elusive, full carbon closure is achieved (within measurement uncertainty) by the end of the experiments. These results provide new insights into the effects of oxidation on organic carbon properties (volatility, oxidation state and reactivity) and the atmospheric lifecycle of organic carbon. Following an initial period characterized by functionalization reactions and particle growth, fragmentation reactions dominate, forming smaller species. After approximately one day of atmospheric aging, most carbon is sequestered in two long-lived reservoirs—volatile oxidized gases and low-volatility particulate matter.