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"Goldstein, Lyle"
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Meeting China halfway : how to defuse the emerging US-China rivalry
China's expanding economic and military power, and the US response to the challenge of China's rise are shaping international relations in the twenty-first century. A breakdown in this relationship could bring about a situation reminiscent of the Cold War. Lyle Goldstein argues that while conflict is not predetermined, there are worrying signs that the relationship is becoming an increasingly chilly and dangerous rivalry. The main purposes of this book are to analyze the trajectory of the relationship, to examine both US views and Chinese views of the other, and to propose concrete steps to reverse a perilous deterioration in the relationship. He examines key flash points or difficult issues in the US-China relationship in depth, such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, economic issues, and climate change, to name a few. A unique feature of the book is that Goldstein's language skills allowed him to incorporate Chinese military and diplomatic publications to a degree that few in the West have been able to in the past. Goldstein is under no illusions that compromise is easy, but he calls for both the US and China to take steps to seek an accommodation of interests in the Pacific and globally to avoid a dangerous strategic rivalry.
Book
Meeting China Halfway
Though a US-China conflict is far from inevitable, major tensions are building in the Asia-Pacific region. These strains are the result of historical enmity, cultural divergence, and deep ideological estrangement, not to mention apprehensions fueled by geopolitical competition and the closely related \"security dilemma.\" Despite worrying signs of intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing, few observers have provided concrete paradigms to lead this troubled relationship away from disaster.Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry is dramatically different from any other book about US-China relations. Lyle J. Goldstein's explicit focus in almost every chapter is on laying bare both US and Chinese perceptions of where their interests clash and proposing new paths to ease bilateral tensions through compromise. Each chapter contains a \"cooperation spiral\"-the opposite of an escalation spiral-to illustrate the policy proposals. Goldstein not only parses findings from the latest American scholarship but also breaks new ground by analyzing hundreds of Chinese-language sources, including military publications, never before evaluated by Western experts. Goldstein makes one hundred policy proposals over the course of this book, not because these are the only solutions to arresting the alarming course toward conflict, but rather to inaugurate a genuine debate regarding cooperative policy solutions to the most vexing problems in US-China relations.
eBook
Time to Think Outside the Box: A Proposal to Achieve Denuclearization by Prioritizing the China–DPRK Relationship
Article Type: Policy Proposal Purpose—This article endeavors to elaborate a comprehensive proposal to achieve denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In focusing on the DPRK–PRC dyad as the most critical, the article begins with a survey of Chinese writings about North Korea and then presents a step-by-step \"cooperation spiral\" that can be implemented by the two superpowers, China and the United States, to facilitate denuclearization. Design/Methodology—The two methods employed are: (1) a focused reading of Mandarin-language source materials to enable a more complete understanding of Beijing's approach toward North Korea and the nuclear issue; (2) a deductive model of mutual accommodation is then explained in a step-by-step manner. Findings—The primary finding of the research is that the most important role in achieving denuclearization must be accorded to China and Beijing's foremost method to achieve that goal will be by supporting regime stability in the DPRK. A \"cooperation spiral\" between Washington and Beijing can further help China in overseeing the process of denuclearization. Practical Implications—The implications of the article are that ratcheting up pressure against Pyongyang is not likely to aid denuclearization. Rather, diplomats should seek to end North Korea's isolation and place the chief responsibility of denuclearization with China. However, China must be further incentivized to take proactive steps. Originality Value—Conventional approaches to denuclearization generally implore Beijing to join other powers in isolating Pyongyang. This proposal is highly original in that it argues for the opposite policy: that denuclearization is only feasible if China and North Korea enhance rather than weaken their partner relations.
Journal Article
The US–China Naval Balance in the Asia-Pacific: An Overview
A truism in strategic studies holds that warfare is highly complex and unpredictable. What appears to be a stable and predictable military balance can be suddenly overthrown by innovative doctrines or cunning strategies. This paper attempts to fill a perceived gap in strategic studies analysis with respect to US–China naval conflict scenarios. The author is concerned that most Western analyses on the subject tend to be simplistic and unduly optimistic. The approach in this paper follows a “Chinese style” in that it examines the Asia-Pacific strategic balance as a series of interacting military campaigns. The results of the analysis yield that the US retains a strong advantage in certain warfare domains, to be sure. Yet, the assumption that the US military has a decisive advantage in the relevant scenarios becomes dubious in light of the potentially devastating blow against US and allied bases that could be made by PLA conventional missile forces. Moreover, a Chinese advantage in the use of offensive mine warfare, when combined with China's ability to prevent US and allied aerial anti-submarine forces from flying, could combine to roll back, or at least significantly limit, Washington's heretofore decisive undersea advantage. 在战略理论而言, 战争的进程是非常复杂和不可预测的。一个似乎稳定和可预测的军事平衡能突然被创新军事教义或灵巧的策略推翻。本文试图填补中美海上军事冲突的战略研究。作者认为, 大多数西方分析人对这个问题的判断往往是简单或过于乐观的。本文采用“中国式”方式将亚太战略平衡作为一系列相互影响的军事行动。 分析结果表明, 美国在某些战争领域仍然保留强大的优势。然而,鉴于中国常规导弹可能造成对美国与盟国的潜在破坏性打击,美军在有关情况下具有所谓决定性优势的假设存有相当多的疑点。 此外,解放军在使用进攻性水雷战争方面的优势,与中国在防止美国和盟军在空中反潜部队飞行的能力,也有望被结合起来对抗美国军事实力,或至少大大削减美军水下作战的决定性优势。 在这种情况下,中美海军对抗的最终结果似乎还是一个未知数。
Journal Article
The Bipolarity Paradox
Article Type: Research Article Purpose: Scholars have been debating the geopolitical importance of the strengthening China-Russia relationship for some time, noting that the relationship does not constitute a full alliance, but still might have great significance for world politics. This paper aims to improve on this scholarship by examining the evolution of China-Russia cooperation as it relates to the future of North Korea, especially in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Design, Methodology, Approach: This scholarship represents a methodological advance over most previous discussions of the China-Russia relationship. It embraces the historical development of this relationship, probes structural arrangements in relationship to regional stability, and also draws upon extensive Russian and Chinese language data sets which constitute the material for a \"discourse analysis,\" to achieve a deeper understanding of this relationship as it pertains to the Korean Peninsula. Findings: Overall, this study documents substantial cooperation between Beijing and Moscow with respect to Korean affairs. While some disagreements between China and Russia do exist in this sphere, the main implication of these developments is the trend toward a hardening of the bipolar structure in Northeast Asia, informed by the growing influence of patriotic and nationalistic elite groups within both China and Russia. However, the study points out a paradox in that this hardening of bipolarity could actually help to stabilize the spiraling tensions that have surrounded North Korea in recent decades. Practical Implications: This paper may help students and policymakers alike in Northeast Asia evaluate the significance of the China-Russia quasi-alliance. Overall, this paper supports the conclusion that the dangers of the China-Russia quasi-alliance need not be exaggerated. Originality Value: This paper is innovative insofar as it gives balanced attention to both China's and Russia's discourses and policies toward North Korea and evaluates the influence of Moscow-Beijing's growing cooperation in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, as it may impact the future of North Korea and the wider region.
Journal Article
Undersea Dragons: China's Maturing Submarine Force
China is not the first land power to go to sea by investing disproportionately in submarines. Whether the PRC will succeed where Germany and the Soviet Union struggled is one of the greatest question of maritime strategy for the twenty-first century.
Journal Article
Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire
This survey of official and quasi-official Chinese-language naval literature provides some new insights regarding Beijing's evolving strategy in the South China Sea. Most importantly — and contrary to conventional wisdom — a surprising diversity of viewpoint is evident in Chinese naval circles that likely reflects the wider debate among Chinese strategists more generally. Thus, it is important to note that a major theme in many of these writings is the need for Beijing to adopt a cautious and compromising policy. Other themes revealed in this literature include a distinct threat perception, as well as concern that China could be cut out of the resource benefits of the South China Sea. Finally, a troubling pattern of escalation is evident in the literature with writings after mid-2010 assuming a disturbingly vitriolic character, perhaps even suggesting that Beijing's military policy in the South China Sea could take an ominous turn in the future. The final point should raise some major questions regarding the present direction of US policy in the region. As the US is looking to \"step up its game\" in the South China Sea area, Washington (and other regional actors) must realize that the \"game\" may develop in a variety of destabilizing ways.
Journal Article
Do Nascent WMD Arsenals Deter? The Sino-Soviet Crisis of 1969
LYLE J. GOLDSTEIN employs an underutilized case study from the cold war to investigate the dynamics associated with confronting regional powers armed with nascent weapons of mass destruction (WMD) arsenals. This research challenges the thesis of the so-called proliferation optimists, who maintain that small WMD arsenals effectively empower the weak against the strong.
Journal Article
China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force: Insights from Chinese Writings
While Western defense analysts have tended to focus on China's diesel submarine force, Chinese open-source writings suggest that PRC strategists are keenly aware that nuclear submarines form a potent means to project power into far-flung sea areas and also may be critical to Beijing's evolving strategic deterrence objectives. Adapted from the source document.
Journal Article