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"Goodhart, Charles"
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A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis
The worst and longest depressions have tended to occur after periods of prolonged, and reasonably stable, prosperity. This results in part from agents rationally updating their expectations during good times and hence becoming more optimistic about future economic prospects. Investors then increase their leverage and shift their portfolios toward projects that would previously have been considered too risky. So, when a downturn does eventually occur, the financial crisis and the extent of default become more severe. Whereas a general appreciation of this syndrome dates back to Minsky (1992) and even beyond, to Irving Fisher (1933), we model it formally. In addition, endogenous default introduces a pecuniary externality since investors do not factor in the impact of their decision to take risk and default on the borrowing cost. We explore the relative advantages of alternative regulations in reducing financial fragility and suggest a novel criterion for improvement of aggregate welfare.
Journal Article
The changing fortunes of central banking
\"Understanding the changing role of central banks and the policies they pursue is absolutely essential for analysing a wide range of economic and political issues, from the Eurozone crisis right through to the US presidential election. This book features contributions by many of the world's leading experts on central banking, providing in accessible essays a fascinating review of today's key policy and research issues for central banks. Luminaries including Mervyn King, Don Kohn, Otmar Issing and William White, are joined by Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics and Political Science, whose many achievements in the field of central banking are honoured as the inspiration for this book. The Changing Fortunes of Central Banking discusses the developing role of central banks and the policies they pursue in seeking financial stabilisation, whilst also giving suggestions for model strategies. This comprehensive review will appeal to central bankers, financial supervisors, academics and economists working in think tanks\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Populism and Central Bank Independence
The consensus that surrounded the granting of central bank independence in the pursuit of a price stability oriented monetary policy has been challenged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the light of the rise of populism on the one hand and the expanded mandates of central banks on the other hand. After considering the economic case for independence and the three Ds (distributional, directional and duration effects), the paper examines three different dimensions in the debate of how the rise in populism - or simply general discontent with the status quo - affects central bank independence. Finally, the paper examines how to interpret the legality of central bank mandates, and whether or not central banks have exceeded their powers. This analysis leads us in turn to consider accountability and, in particular, the judicial review of central bank actions and decisions. It is important to have in place adequate mechanisms to ‘guard the guardians’ of monetary and financial stability.
Journal Article
House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy
This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices, and economic activity in industrialized countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel vector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006. The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) There is evidence of a significant multidirectional link between house prices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The link between house prices and monetary variables is found to be stronger over a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effects of shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger when house prices are booming.
Journal Article
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) sets the guidelines for world-wide regulation of banks. It is the forum for agreeing international regulation on the conduct of banking. Based on special access to the archives of the BCBS and interviews with many of its key players, this book tells the story of the early years of the Committee from its foundation in 1974/5 right through until 1997 - the year that marks the watershed between the Basel I Accord on Capital Adequacy and the start of work on Basel II. In addition, the book covers the Concordat, the Market Risk Amendment, the Core Principles of Banking and all other facets of the work of the BCBS. While the book is primarily a record of the history of the BCBS, it also provides an assessment of its actions and efficacy. It is a major contribution to the historical record on banking supervision.
eBook
Pandemic recession and helicopter money: Venice, 1629–1631
We analyse the money-financed fiscal stimulus implemented in Venice during the famine and plague of 1629–31, which was equivalent to a ‘net-worth helicopter money’ strategy – a monetary expansion generating losses to the issuer. We argue that the strategy aimed at reconciling the need to subsidize inhabitants suffering from containment policies with the desire to prevent an increase in long-term government debt, but it generated much monetary instability and had to be quickly reversed. This episode highlights the redistributive implications of the design of macroeconomic policies and the role of political economy factors in determining such designs.
Journal Article
Historical reasons for the focus on broad monetary aggregates in post-World War II Britain and the ‘Seven Years War’ with the IMF
The British monetary authorities have traditionally focused on broader monetary aggregates than their counterparts elsewhere. The reasons include: the willingness of UK banks to allow customers to make payments by drawing on time deposits, the particularities of the UK approach to managing the national debt and the foreign exchange reserves, and the flow-of-funds system of national accounts developed after World War II. This article outlines these reasons, and explores the implications for the UK's often fractious relationship with the International Monetary Fund during the 1950s and 1960s. It explains why IMF conditionality on loans to the UK focused on broad aggregates.
Journal Article
Competition and credit control: some personal reflections
The Bank of England's ‘consultative document’ on Competition and Credit Control (C&CC) was published on 14 May 1971. It was a landmark occasion, representing a decisive break with the prior system of maintaining direct controls over bank lending to the private sector; the intention was now to achieve the monetary authorities’ objectives of policy via the operation of market mechanisms, notably adjustments in interest rates and open market operations. Although the ‘credit control’ aspect was, over the next few years, notably less successful than the encouragement of competition amongst the banks (where the London clearing banks previously had maintained a restrictive cartel with the support of the authorities), nevertheless the direction of travel towards a more liberal, market-based system, remained, despite a partial reversion towards a direct control system in the guise of the ‘corset’, introduced at the end of 1973, and finally laid to rest in June 1980.
Journal Article
The Macroprudential Toolkit
Most treatments of financial regulation worry about threats to the banking system and the economy from defaults or credit crunches. This paper argues that the recent crisis points to fire sales through capital markets as another source of financial and economic instability. Accounting for fire sales implies several changes to the standard approach. First, if there are three channels of instability, then three regulatory tools are needed to deliver stability. Second, if only a single capital tool and a single liquidity tool are available, then there is a risk that using them pushes activity into the shadow banking system. Third, liquidity requirements on the asset side of bank balance sheets are conceptually different from liquidity requirements on the liability side. The paper starts with a review of the recent theoretical work on fire sales that form the building blocks for a next generation of models of the financial system. A summary of some evidence suggesting that fire sales were present in the crisis is offered. Next, the paper outlines a general equilibrium framework that can be used to think about a financial system in which default, credit crunches, and fire sales are all possible. The paper concludes with a discussion of the regulatory options and some speculation on how such a framework could be extended.
Journal Article