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Hospital readmissions are common after major surgery, although it is unknown whether patients achieve improved outcomes when they are readmitted to, and receive care at, the index hospital where their surgical procedure was done. We examined the association between readmission destination and mortality risk in the USA in Medicare beneficiaries after a range of common operations. By use of claims data from Medicare beneficiaries in the USA between Jan 1, 2001, and Nov 15, 2011, we assessed patients who needed hospital readmission within 30 days after open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, infrainguinal arterial bypass, aortobifemoral bypass, coronary artery bypass surgery, oesophagectomy, colectomy, pancreatectomy, cholecystectomy, ventral hernia repair, craniotomy, hip replacement, or knee replacement. We used logistic regression models incorporating inverse probability weighting and instrumental variable analysis to measure associations between readmission destination (index vs non-index hospital) and risk of 90 day mortality for patients who underwent surgery who needed hospital readmission. 9 440 503 patients underwent one of 12 major operations, and the number of patients readmitted or transferred back to the index hospital where their operation was done varied from 186 336 (65·8%) of 283 131 patients who were readmitted after coronary artery bypass grafting, to 142 142 (83·2%) of 170 789 patients who were readmitted after colectomy. Readmission was more likely to be to the index hospital than to a non-index hospital if the readmission was for a surgical complication (189 384 [23%] of 834 070 patients readmitted to index hospital vs 36 792 [13%] of 276 976 patients readmitted non-index hospital, p<0·0001). Readmission to the index hospital was associated with a 26% lower risk of 90 day mortality than was readmission to a non-index hospital, with inverse probability weighting used to control for selection bias (odds ratio [OR] 0·74, 95% CI 0·66–0·83). This effect was significant (p<0·0001) for all procedures in inverse probability-weighted models, and was largest for patients who were readmitted after pancreatectomy (OR 0·56, 95% CI 0·45–0·69) and aortobifemoral bypass (OR 0·69, 95% CI 0·61–0·77). By use of hospital-level variation among regional index hospital readmission rates as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed that the patients with the highest probability of returning to the index hospital had 8% lower risk of mortality (OR 0·92 95% CI 0·91–0·94) than did patients who were less likely to be readmitted to the index hospital. In the USA, patients who are readmitted to hospital after various major operations consistently achieve improved survival if they return to the hospital where their surgery took place. These findings might have important implications for cost-effectiveness-driven regional centralisation of surgical care. None.

Background This study illustrates the use of logistic regression and machine learning methods, specifically random forest models, in health services research by analyzing outcomes for a cohort of patients with concomitant peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus. Methods Cohort study using fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2015 who were newly diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus. Exposure variables include whether patients received preventive measures in the 6 months following their index date: HbA1c test, foot exam, or vascular imaging study. Outcomes include any reintervention, lower extremity amputation, and death. We fit both logistic regression models as well as random forest models. Results There were 88,898 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus in our cohort. The rate of preventative treatments in the first six months following diagnosis were 52% ( n  = 45,971) with foot exams, 43% ( n  = 38,393) had vascular imaging, and 50% ( n  = 44,181) had an HbA1c test. The directionality of the influence for all covariates considered matched those results found with the random forest and logistic regression models. The most predictive covariate in each approach differs as determined by the t-statistics from logistic regression and variable importance (VI) in the random forest model. For amputation we see age 85 + (t = 53.17) urban-residing (VI = 83.42), and for death (t = 65.84, VI = 88.76) and reintervention (t = 34.40, VI = 81.22) both models indicate age is most predictive. Conclusions The use of random forest models to analyze data and provide predictions for patients holds great potential in identifying modifiable patient-level and health-system factors and cohorts for increased surveillance and intervention to improve outcomes for patients. Random forests are incredibly high performing models with difficult interpretation most ideally suited for times when accurate prediction is most desirable and can be used in tandem with more common approaches to provide a more thorough analysis of observational data.

Research has demonstrated that there is lower operative mortality at hospitals with higher surgical volume. Using administrative data from Medicare, this study found lower mortality associated with each of eight procedures when performed by surgeons who undertook the operation more frequently. Lower mortality with surgeons who operate frequently. For many surgical procedures, patients at hospitals where a high number of such procedures are performed (high-volume hospitals) have lower mortality rates than those at hospitals that are less experienced with the procedures. 1 – 4 In one recent study of the national population of Medicare recipients, we found strong relations between hospital volume and operative mortality associated with 14 high-risk cancer resections and cardiovascular procedures. 5 Despite the considerable body of research in this area, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the observed associations between volume and outcome. Because they tend to be much larger facilities, high-volume hospitals have a broader . . .

To assess the association of low- vs. guideline-recommended high-intensity cystoscopic surveillance with outcomes among patients with high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). A retrospective cohort study of Veterans Affairs patients diagnosed with high-risk NMIBC between 2005 and 2011 with follow-up through 2014. Patients were categorized by number of surveillance cystoscopies over two years following diagnosis: low- (1-5) vs. high-intensity (6 or more) surveillance. Propensity score adjusted regression models were used to assess the association of low-intensity cystoscopic surveillance with frequency of transurethral resections, and risk of progression to invasive disease and bladder cancer death. Among 1,542 patients, 520 (33.7%) underwent low-intensity cystoscopic surveillance. Patients undergoing low-intensity surveillance had fewer transurethral resections (37 vs. 99 per 100 person-years; p<0.001). Risk of death from bladder cancer did not differ significantly by low (cumulative incidence [CIn] 8.4% [95% CI 6.5-10.9) at 5 years) vs. high-intensity surveillance (CIn 9.1% [95% CI 7.4-11.2) at 5 years, p = 0.61). Low vs. high-intensity surveillance was not associated with increased risk of bladder cancer death among patients with Ta (CIn 5.7% vs. 8.2% at 5 years p = 0.24) or T1 disease at diagnosis (CIn 10.2% vs. 9.1% at 5 years, p = 0.58). Among patients with Ta disease, low-intensity surveillance was associated with decreased risk of progression to invasive disease (T1 or T2) or bladder cancer death (CIn 19.3% vs. 31.3% at 5 years, p = 0.002). Patients with high-risk NMIBC undergoing low- vs. high-intensity cystoscopic surveillance underwent fewer transurethral resections, but did not experience an increased risk of progression or bladder cancer death. These findings provide a strong rationale for a clinical trial to determine whether low-intensity surveillance is comparable to high-intensity surveillance for cancer control in high-risk NMIBC.

Patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) require revascularization to improve limb perfusion and thereby limit the risk of amputation. It is uncertain whether an initial strategy of endovascular therapy or surgical revascularization for CLTI is superior for improving limb outcomes. In this international, randomized trial, we enrolled 1830 patients with CLTI and infrainguinal peripheral artery disease in two parallel-cohort trials. Patients who had a single segment of great saphenous vein that could be used for surgery were assigned to cohort 1. Patients who needed an alternative bypass conduit were assigned to cohort 2. The primary outcome was a composite of a major adverse limb event - which was defined as amputation above the ankle or a major limb reintervention (a new bypass graft or graft revision, thrombectomy, or thrombolysis) - or death from any cause. In cohort 1, after a median follow-up of 2.7 years, a primary-outcome event occurred in 302 of 709 patients (42.6%) in the surgical group and in 408 of 711 patients (57.4%) in the endovascular group (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.79; P<0.001). In cohort 2, a primary-outcome event occurred in 83 of 194 patients (42.8%) in the surgical group and in 95 of 199 patients (47.7%) in the endovascular group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.58 to 1.06; P = 0.12) after a median follow-up of 1.6 years. The incidence of adverse events was similar in the two groups in the two cohorts. Among patients with CLTI who had an adequate great saphenous vein for surgical revascularization (cohort 1), the incidence of a major adverse limb event or death was significantly lower in the surgical group than in the endovascular group. Among the patients who lacked an adequate saphenous vein conduit (cohort 2), the outcomes in the two groups were similar. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; BEST-CLI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02060630.).

Dual-antiplatelet therapy is commonly prescribed after endovascular intervention for peripheral artery disease. However, it is not known whether therapeutic anticoagulation affects outcomes after peripheral endovascular intervention. We sought to investigate whether therapeutic anticoagulation after peripheral endovascular intervention is associated with lower risk of major adverse limb events (MALEs) and all-cause mortality. We studied patients who underwent index endovascular intervention for peripheral artery disease in the Vascular Study Group of New England (2010 to 2018). The main exposure was anticoagulation at the time of discharge. Outcomes included patency loss (occlusion or target lesion reintervention), MALE (any major amputation or reintervention), and all-cause mortality. We compared outcomes between patients who received anticoagulation on discharge versus those who did not receive anticoagulation using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression. In the cohort of 6,809 patients, 15% were discharged on an anticoagulant (mostly warfarin). These patients had a higher prevalence of acute or chronic limb ischemia than those not receiving an anticoagulant (74% vs 47%, p < 0.001) and were less likely to receive any antiplatelet agent after peripheral endovascular intervention (5% vs 14%, p < 0.001). After risk adjustment, compared with patients not on an anticoagulant, patients receiving therapeutic anticoagulation had a higher risk of 2-year patency loss (hazard ratio [HR] 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05 to 1.89), MALE (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.76), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.47). In conclusion, anticoagulation after peripheral endovascular intervention was associated with higher risk of adverse events, including patency loss, MALE, and all-cause mortality.

Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) and diabetes compose a high-risk population for development of critical limb ischemia (CLI) and amputation, although the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Comparison of dysregulated microRNAs from diabetic patients with PAD and diabetic mice with limb ischemia revealed the conserved microRNA, miR-130b-3p. In vitro angiogenic assays demonstrated that miR-130b rapidly promoted proliferation, migration, and sprouting in endothelial cells (ECs), whereas miR-130b inhibition exerted antiangiogenic effects. Local delivery of miR-130b mimics into ischemic muscles of diabetic mice (db/db) following femoral artery ligation (FAL) promoted revascularization by increasing angiogenesis and markedly improved limb necrosis and amputation. RNA-Seq and gene set enrichment analysis from miR-130b-overexpressing ECs revealed the BMP/TGF-β signaling pathway as one of the top dysregulated pathways. Accordingly, overlapping downregulated transcripts from RNA-Seq and miRNA prediction algorithms identified that miR-130b directly targeted and repressed the TGF-β superfamily member inhibin-β-A (INHBA). miR-130b overexpression or siRNA-mediated knockdown of INHBA induced IL-8 expression, a potent angiogenic chemokine. Lastly, ectopic delivery of silencer RNAs (siRNA) targeting Inhba in db/db ischemic muscles following FAL improved revascularization and limb necrosis, recapitulating the phenotype of miR-130b delivery. Taken together, a miR-130b/INHBA signaling axis may provide therapeutic targets for patients with PAD and diabetes at risk of developing CLI.

Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) and diabetes have the highest risk of critical limb ischemia (CLI) and amputation, yet the underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. MicroRNA (miRNA) sequencing of plasma from diabetic patients with or without CLI was compared to diabetic mice with acute or subacute limb ischemia to identify conserved miRNAs. miRNA-KO mice on high-fat diet were generated to explore the impact on CLI. Comparison of dysregulated miRNAs from diabetic individuals with PAD and diabetic mice with limb ischemia revealed conserved miR-181 family members. High-fat-fed, diabetic Mir181a2b2-KO mice had impaired revascularization in limbs due to abrogation of circulating Ly6Chi monocytes, with reduced accumulation in ischemic skeletal muscles. M2-like KO macrophages under diabetic conditions failed to produce proangiogenic cytokines. Single-cell transcriptomics of the bone marrow niche revealed that the reduced monocytosis in diabetic KO mice was a result of impaired hematopoiesis, with increased CXCR4 signaling in bone marrow Lineage-Sca1+Kit+ (LSK) cells. Exogenous Ly6Chi monocytes from nondiabetic KO mice rescued the impaired revascularization in ischemic limbs of diabetic KO mice. Increased Cxcr4 expression was mediated by the miR-181 target, Plac8. Taken together, our results show that MiR-181a/b is a putative mediator of diabetic CLI and contributes to changes in hematopoiesis, monocytosis, and macrophage polarization.

Choosing between competing treatment options is difficult for patients and clinicians when results from randomized and observational studies are discordant. Observational real-world studies yield more generalizable evidence for decision making than randomized clinical trials, but unmeasured confounding, especially in time-to-event analyses, can limit validity. To compare long-term survival after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) in real-world practice using a novel instrumental variable method designed for time-to-event outcomes, and to compare the results with traditional risk-adjustment models used in observational research for survival analyses. A multicenter cohort study was performed. The Vascular Quality Initiative, an observational quality improvement registry, was used to compare long-term mortality after CEA vs CAS. The study included 86 017 patients who underwent CEA (n = 73 312) or CAS (n = 12 705) between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2016. Patients were followed up for long-term mortality assessment by linking the registry data to Medicare claims. Medicare claims data were available through September 31, 2015. Procedure type (CEA vs CAS). The hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality using unadjusted, adjusted, propensity-matched, and instrumental variable methods were examined. The instrumental variable was the proportion of CEA among the total carotid procedures (endarterectomy and stenting) performed at each hospital in the 12 months before each patient's index operation and therefore varies over the study period. Participants who underwent CEA had a mean (SD) age of 70.3 (9.4) years compared with 69.1 (10.4) years for CAS, and most were men (44 191 [60.4%] for CEA and 8117 [63.9%] for CAS). The observed 5-year mortality was 12.8% (95% CI, 12.5%-13.2%) for CEA and 17.0% (95% CI, 16.0%-18.1%) for CAS. The unadjusted HR of mortality for CEA vs CAS was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71), and Cox-adjusted and propensity-matched HRs were similar (0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74 and 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77, respectively). These findings are comparable with published observational studies of CEA vs CAS. However, the association between CEA and mortality was more modest when estimated by instrumental variable analysis (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-0.98), a finding similar to data reported in randomized clinical trials. The study found a survival advantage associated with CEA over CAS in unadjusted and Cox-adjusted analyses. However, this finding was more modest when using an instrumental variable method designed for time-to-event outcomes for risk adjustment. The instrumental variable-based results were more similar to findings from randomized clinical trials, suggesting this method may provide less biased estimates of time-dependent outcomes in observational analyses.

Background Despite the high prevalence of bladder cancer, research on optimal bladder cancer care is limited. One way to advance observational research on care is to use linked data from multiple sources. Such big data research can provide real-world details of care and outcomes across a large number of patients. We assembled and validated such data including (1) administrative data from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), (2) Medicare claims, (3) data abstracted by tumor registrars, (4) data abstracted via chart review from the national electronic health record, and (5) full text pathology reports. Methods Based on these combined data, we used administrative data to identify patients with newly diagnosed bladder cancer who received care in the VA. To validate these data, we first compared the diagnosis date from the administrative data to that from the tumor registry. Second, we measured accuracy of identifying bladder cancer care in VA administrative data, using a random chart review ( n  = 100) as gold standard. Lastly, we compared the proportion of patients who received bladder cancer care among those who did versus did not have full text bladder pathology reports available, expecting that those with reports are significantly more likely to receive care in VA. Results Out of 26,675 patients, 11,323 (42%) had tumor registry data available. 90% of these patients had a difference of 90 days or less between the diagnosis dates from administrative and registry data. Among 100 patients selected for chart review, 59 received bladder cancer care in VA, 58 of which were correctly identified using administrative data (sensitivity 98%, specificity 90%). Receipt of bladder cancer care was substantially more common among those who did versus did not have bladder pathology available (96% vs. 43%, p  < 0.001). Conclusion Merging administrative with electronic health record and pathology data offers new possibilities to validate the use of administrative data in bladder cancer research.