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"Graff, Michael"
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Law and Finance: Common Law and Civil Law Countries Compared-An Empirical Critique
The 'theory of law and finance' argues that the common law system provides a better framework for financial development and economic growth than the civil law tradition. This paper identifies a number of problems that cast doubt on the soundness of the empirical basis of this literature. However, this analysis supports the idea that the legal tradition is a major factor in shaping corporate law. In particular, while there is not much evidence that common law countries protect financial investors better than civil law countries I find support for the assumption that financial investors are treated differently across legal families.
Journal Article
Growth of the International Economy, 1820-2015
Kenwood and Lougheed's classic book has been the benchmark introduction to the development of the global economy for decades. For this fifth edition, Michael Graff has brought the story up to date to include events from the early part of the twenty first century - continued globalization, the emergence of Asia as an economic power and the greater role played by business on the international scene.
Beginning with the industrial revolution, the book charts the long nineteenth century, the impact of colonialism, the fast pace of technology growth and the impact of global wars. New features to this edition include:
a prologue explaining the initial conditions faced by the world economy in 1820, detailing the beginnings of international trade and the influence of slavery
greater coverage of developing countries
increased coverage of World Wars I and II and of the twentieth century
a number of appendices outlining the economic concepts and theories underlying the text
This new edition of Growth of the International Economy provides the reader with a clear understanding of the factors which have been instrumental in creating the economic environment we face two hundred years after the industrial revolution.
eBook
Financial Development and Economic Growth in Corporatist and Liberal Market Economies
The paper addresses the significance of financial development as a possible determinant of economic growth. Economists and policymakers in transition economies and emerging markets are certainly aware of the key role that, in a market economy, the financial system is supposed to play in the process of allocating scarce resources to their final uses. However, to fulfill this function, the financial sector itself is using up resources, and it is not obvious, whether or under which conditions the overall balance is a favorable one. An empirical analysis of these questions is based on a panel data set covering ninety-three countries from 1970-90. According to this data, financial activity has generally supported economic growth. To clarify whether socioeconomic characteristics modify the structure of the finance-growth nexus, the countries are classified according to their degree of corporatism. It is shown that the partial correlation between (lagged) proxies for financial development as well as its interaction terms and growth are significantly higher in the more corporatist subgroup of countries. When designing appropriate policies for the setup and reform of a financial system in transition economies and emerging markets, it is therefore crucial to consider the embeddedness of economic institutions into their broader social, cultural, and historical surroundings.
Journal Article
Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers
This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle—the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate and consist of economic tendency surveys results from many countries around the world. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection procedure, in which a pre-set correlation threshold and the targeted leads to the reference series are used as selection criteria. In the second stage, the selected variables are combined and transformed into the respective composite indicators, computed as the first partial least squares factor with the reference series as response variable. We analyse the characteristics of the two new indicators in a pseudo real-time setting and demonstrate that both are useful additions to the small number of indicators for the global business cycle published so far. Finally, yet importantly, the Barometers were quick to plunge in the beginning of March 2020 and have since then given a reliable real-time reflection of the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Journal Article
Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series: An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data
This paper compares algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey data at monthly and quarterly frequency. There is a wide range of imputation algorithms. To evaluate the different approaches, we apply them to series that are de facto monthly, from which we create quarterly data by deleting two out of three data points from each quarter. At the same time, the monthly series are ideal to deliver higher frequency information for multivariate imputation algorithms. With this set of indicators, we conduct imputations of monthly values, resorting to two univariate and four multivariate algorithms. We then run tests of forecasting accuracy by comparing the imputed monthly data with the actual values. Finally, we take a look at the congruence of an imputed monthly series from the quarterly survey question on firms’ capacity utilisation with other monthly data reflecting the Swiss business cycle. The results show that an algorithm based on the Chow and Lin approach, amended with a variable pre-selection procedure, delivers the most precise imputations, closely followed by the standard Chow-Lin algorithm and then multiple regression. The cubic spline and the EM algorithm do not prove useful.
Journal Article
Export specialization and economic growth
Traditional economic wisdom claims that - while global economic integration is beneficial for economic performance - a country's trade specialization pattern has no impact on its economic performance. In this paper, we seek to cast doubt on this aspect of mainstream economics using a very traditional approach. We introduce a simple endogenous growth model that shows how governments can stimulate economic growth by implementing policies that successfully create competitive advantages in favourable sectors. According to new growth theory, favourable sectors inhibit technological spill-over effects to the non-tradable sector. The model is supported by the data. Using a standard augmented aggregate production function we run a series of growth regressions including technological change and a proxy for trade specialization. Our results indicate that contrary to conventional wisdom export specialization matters: sectors are not indistinguishable in their impact on economic performance. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of policy implications.
Journal Article