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"Green, Jonathan"
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Walk on the wild side: estimating the global magnitude of visits to protected areas
How often do people visit the world's protected areas (PAs)? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don't know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world's terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109) visits/y-of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation.
Journal Article
London Transport posters : a century of art and design
London Transport's poster collection represents the most complete graphic archive of its kind to be assembled by a single organisation over such a long period anywhere in the world. This book is richly illustrated with examples of posters from all periods.
Book
Financial Costs of Meeting Global Biodiversity Conservation Targets: Current Spending and Unmet Needs
World governments have committed to halting human-induced extinctions and safeguarding important sites for biodiversity by 2020, but the financial costs of meeting these targets are largely unknown. We estimate the cost of reducing the extinction risk of all globally threatened bird species (by > 1 International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List category) to be U.S. $0.875 to $1.23 billion annually over the next decade, of which 12% is currently funded. Incorporating threatened nonavian species increases this total to U.S. $3.41 to $4.76 billion annually. We estimate that protecting and effectively managing all terrestrial sites of global avian conservation significance (11,731 Important Bird Areas) would cost U.S. $ 65.1 billion annually. Adding sites for other taxa increases this to U.S. $76.1 billion annually. Meeting these targets will require conservation funding to increase by at least an order of magnitude.
Journal Article
High-resolution maps show that rubber causes substantial deforestation
Understanding the effects of cash crop expansion on natural forest is of fundamental importance. However, for most crops there are no remotely sensed global maps
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, and global deforestation impacts are estimated using models and extrapolations. Natural rubber is an example of a principal commodity for which deforestation impacts have been highly uncertain, with estimates differing more than fivefold
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,
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. Here we harnessed Earth observation satellite data and cloud computing
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to produce high-resolution maps of rubber (10 m pixel size) and associated deforestation (30 m pixel size) for Southeast Asia. Our maps indicate that rubber-related forest loss has been substantially underestimated in policy, by the public and in recent reports
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,
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. Our direct remotely sensed observations show that deforestation for rubber is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by figures now widely used for setting policy
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. With more than 4 million hectares of forest loss for rubber since 1993 (at least 2 million hectares since 2000) and more than 1 million hectares of rubber plantations established in Key Biodiversity Areas, the effects of rubber on biodiversity and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia could be extensive. Thus, rubber deserves more attention in domestic policy, within trade agreements and in incoming due-diligence legislation.
Satellite data used to generate high-resolution maps across Southeast Asia show that rubber-related deforestation is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by estimates used for setting policy.
Journal Article
Ride the waves with Minecraft
What secrets are lurking beneath the pixelated waters of Minecraft? Readers of this behind-the-scenes guide will learn about the unique creatures and crafting materials they'll encounter underwater in this virtual universe. Expert tips teach readers how to master their own aquatic domain, from breathing underwater to building a squid farm and harvesting ink sacs. Three awesome projects of varying levels, beginner, intermediate, and master, help readers gain confidence in their construction skills. Readers will build their own wild water ride, secret underwater base, and epic aircraft carrier. Each project provides a time-to-completion estimate, a list of necessary materials, and step-by-step instructions with handy visuals.
Book
Mechanistic trials, therapy and developmental science—An exemplar from early autism care
Background Mechanistic design and analysis in clinical trials remains relatively rare in child mental health and autism, despite the considerable value that it could have in developing therapy practice and in illuminating basic science. Clinical trials themselves continue to have insufficient influence on actual clinical practice in child mental health. Methods Aspects of clinical trial design, including co‐design, are identified that could increase their face validity for clinicians. A number of recent developments in mechanistic analysis of complex intervention trials in mental health are described that can also increase the face validity and utility for clinicians, and provide causal inferences for clinical and developmental theory that are useful transdiagnostically. Results These possibilities are exemplified with findings from the Paediatric Autism Communication Therapy (PACT) trial programme in early autism care. This is one of the largest in the field and unique in achieving a long‐term trial follow‐up with preserved intention to treat analysis. Mechanistic analysis in this programme identifies a key cascade of mediation, with therapeutic changes in early child dyadic social initiation mediating generalised endpoint as well as follow up autism outcomes. These findings identified causal inferences regarding the responsiveness of sociability in autistic children to environmental adaptation in therapy, with implications for mechanism across developmental science. They also facilitated successful adaptation of this therapy into other non‐specialist environments. Conclusions Well‐designed mechanistic trials identify active processes underlying therapy effects. They have in consequence powerful potential to facilitate therapy adaptation and transdiagnostic refinement. They can also uniquely illuminate developmental theory, by allowing causal inferences in developmental science that are difficult in other ways. Key points What's known Mechanistic design and analysis in clinical trials can uniquely illuminate theory and clinical practice, but remain relatively rare in child mental health, including in autism. What's new The potential of mechanistic analysis is exemplified in a series of early intervention trials in autism, including long‐term follow‐up data. These show how autistic sociability can be responsive to environment change, and how autistic children can generalise this to impact long‐term developmental outcomes. What's relevant These findings are relevant to understanding early autism development, to early development intervention, and to how therapies can empirically evolve and adapt to new contexts. Mechanistic randomised controlled trials pursued in this way can increase their relevance to clinicians and provide illuminating causal interferences for developmental scientists.
Journal Article
Snow stopping you with Minecraft
Polar bears, snowstorms, and zombies? Welcome to the wintery world of Minecraft. This handy guide gives readers the tools they'll need to survive in Minecraft's icy landscapes, and three epic projects to begin their own snow kingdom. Each project includes a list of necessary materials and step-by-step instructions with visuals. Readers will gain confidence in their engineering skills as they progress through beginner, intermediate, and master builds. They'll construct a cozy igloo library, a massive polar outpost, and a fancy ice hotel. Expert tips help readers create snow golem armies, find fish and other crucial materials.
Book
Reactivation of Multiple Viruses in Patients with Sepsis
A current controversy is whether patients with sepsis progress to an immunosuppressed state. We hypothesized that reactivation of latent viruses occurred with prolonged sepsis thereby providing evidence of clinically-relevant immunosuppression and potentially providing a means to serially-monitor patients' immune status. Secondly, if viral loads are markedly elevated, they may contribute to morbidity and mortality. This study determined if reactivation of herpesviruses, polyomaviruses, and the anellovirus TTV occurred in sepsis and correlated with severity. Serial whole blood and plasma samples from 560 critically-ill septic, 161 critically-ill non-septic, and 164 healthy age-matched patients were analyzed by quantitative-polymerase-chain-reaction for cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr (EBV), herpes-simplex (HSV), human herpes virus-6 (HHV-6), and TTV. Polyomaviruses BK and JC were quantitated in urine. Detectable virus was analyzed with respect to secondary fungal and opportunistic bacterial infections, ICU duration, severity of illness, and survival. Patients with protracted sepsis had markedly increased frequency of detectable virus. Cumulative viral DNA detection rates in blood were: CMV (24.2%), EBV (53.2%), HSV (14.1%), HHV-6 (10.4%), and TTV (77.5%). 42.7% of septic patients had presence of two or more viruses. The 50% detection rate for herpesviruses was 5-8 days after sepsis onset. A small subgroup of septic patients had markedly elevated viral loads (>104-106 DNA copies/ml blood) for CMV, EBV, and HSV. Excluding TTV, DNAemia was uncommon in critically-ill non-septic patients and in age-matched healthy controls. Compared to septic patients without DNAemia, septic patients with viremia had increased fungal and opportunistic bacterial infections. Patients with detectable CMV in plasma had higher 90-day mortality compared to CMV-negative patients; p<0.05. Reactivation of latent viruses is common with prolonged sepsis, with frequencies similar to those occurring in transplant patients on immunosuppressive therapy and consistent with development of an immunosuppressive state. Whether reactivated latent viruses contribute to morbidity and mortality in sepsis remains unknown.
Journal Article